Blue state residents are fleeing to red states for lower house prices: ‘Don’t Bring Your Politics,’ locals warn
America’s Republican-leaning red states are winning at drawing in new residents from blue states—but locals don’t like it one bit.
The Republican counties—defined by the 2020 presidential vote—gained 3.7 million more people than they’ve lost since 2020. Meanwhile, Democratic “blue” counties lost 3.7 million more residents than they gained over that same time frame, according to a Stateline analysis of U.S. Census Bureau estimates and county presidential election data by the University of Michigan.
Much of this mass migration has to do with real estate prices, which have shot up astronomically in blue-state strongholds such as California and New York.
This has sparked a flood of residents fleeing toward—or looking to move to—more affordable red states.
In California, for example, residents home shopping out-of-state were most commonly checking out listings in Florida with 10.56% of online views, according to an analysis of Realtor.com® data. Texas was close behind, at 7.60%, followed by Arizona with 6.89%. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Nevada—which earned 6.53% views—saw an influx of migration from the state. Listings in Tennessee also racked up viewers from the blue state (4.49%).
Meanwhile, Realtor.com data also shows that in New York, 19.6% of out-of-state online property views were also pining for Florida, 9% for Pennsylvania, 7% for North Carolina, and 5.93% for Ohio.
But now, locals there are starting to bemoan the demise of their small-town way of life and the skyrocketing home prices that come along with an influx of migrants. Others point out that their infrastructure can’t keep up with so many new residents.
Why red states are turning blue with homebuyers
Bruce Ailion, a real estate agent and attorney with Re/Max Town and Country in Georgia, says it’s understandable why blue-state residents are buying properties in cheaper conservative areas.
“Property values are protected in well-governed, pro-growth, pro-business states that are tough on crime. Increasingly, those are red states,” he says.
In addition to that, red states tend to offer lower taxes and fewer regulations, adds Mike Rhoads, owner of Wild North Home Offers in North Carolina.
But while affordability is a draw, it doesn’t necessarily mean that left-leaning residents are moving in.
“A lot of blue-state residents are taking advantage of lower prices in red states to get their foot in the door with real estate investing,” says Seamus Nally, CEO of TurboTenant.
Nally says his clients are “getting creative” with real estate by doing things like pooling money with friends to buy red-state properties and rent them out—all the while still living and voting back in their own states.
So while these blue newcomers might not swing elections in their favor, that doesn’t mean red-state locals are OK with their new neighbors.
“Red-state residents don’t care for people coming from blue states,” says Cara Ameer, who sells real estate in two of the most important states in the great 2020 migration—California and Florida. “I have seen resentment in Florida with slogans like ‘Don’t Fauci My Florida.’”
She adds that political leanings tend to play a larger role in home selection than people realize, telling the story of a client who changed her mind about an area simply based on front lawn political signage. But Ameer says conservative locals are more accepting provided the newcomers “don’t bring their politics with them.”
“Some appreciate the influx of new residents as it can boost the local economy and bring in new perspectives,” Rhoads says. “Others, however, are concerned about the potential impact on their communities and the possible changes in political dynamics.”
Why blue-state homebuyers may not be so blue after all
Red-state Republicans might not have much to fear, however. For one, new arrivals might very likely have moved to get away from not only higher home prices and higher taxes, but blue politics, too.
“Blue-state in-migrants to red states should have a slight liberalizing effect on the politics of those states,” says Ruy Teixeira, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “But these in-migrants on average are probably more conservative than the average voter in the blue states they are leaving.”
He notes that two of the most popular states with the blue state migrants, Florida and Texas, are not swing states.
“In-migrants just can’t do much to have a meaningful effect” in those states, he says.
“As for Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, given how they’re trending toward [Donald] Trump, it’s also hard to see these in-migrants having an important effect on the outcome,” he adds. “Oddly, the Rust Belt swing states are where things could be really, really close, but that tends to not be where [blue-staters] are going.”
In fact, according to agents, plenty of Golden Staters relocated not just because of California’s record-breaking home prices and high taxes, but also its uber-liberal politics.
“I have had countless clients sell their homes in California specifically to escape the political environment here,” says Sam Fitz-Simon of Compass in Danville, CA.
Yet just because blue-staters might prefer more conservative politics doesn’t mean the new neighbors will accept them unconditionally—particularly if they have preconceived notions about where they’re from.
“One conservative friend of mine packed up and left for Sandpoint in northern Idaho only to discover the locals were less than friendly when they saw his California license plate,” California real estate investor Tyler Drew, president of Anubis Properties, shares.
However, the outsider’s politics came second to the idea that Californians were driving up real estate prices.
“Locals have found themselves priced out of their homebuying dreams by Santa Monica tech bros who could work from home,” Drew says.
Last but not least, Drew says his friends who have fled the Golden State hoping for more conservative neighbors have sometimes unexpectedly found themselves smack dab in the middle of a new up-and-coming blue dot.
Drew recounts the story of one friend who fled San Diego for Moscow, ID, only to find his new neighbors were more liberal than the ones he’d left.
“By the time he figured it out, it was too late,” says Drew. “He couldn’t afford to move anywhere else due to skyrocketing home prices.”
