The Grimace magic took a momentary pause on Wednesday but the Mets still enter their three-game series at Wrigley Field having won seven of eight and are just one game back of a wild-card berth.
Meanwhile, the Yankees face another tough test from the Braves this weekend.
Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon will battle in the series opener.
Let’s take a look at Friday’s matchups involving the Mets and Yankees.
Mets at Cubs
The Mets get their second look at Japanese sensation Shota Imanaga in Friday’s matinee, and are hoping to fare better than they did the first time they faced him.
Imanaga was dominant on May 1, allowing zero runs and just three hits over six innings at Citi Field.
His 1.90 ERA is the third-best mark among qualified pitchers in the NL this season.
He holds an expected fielding independent (xFIP) of 3.47 and an expected ERA (xERA) of 3.07, which suggest some regression is on the horizon.
Imanaga’s underlying results have also tailed off to a greater extent recently; over his last five starts, he has been hard-hit 36 percent while striking out 25.8 percent of batters faced.
Hitters have chased 126 of Imanaga’s 300 (42 percent) off-speed pitches out of the zone for the third-highest rate in the league.
Getting hitters to chase pitches has been a key to his 81 percent strand rate.
Laying off Imanaga’s secondary stuff out of the zone is a key for opposing lineups, and it should benefit the Mets to have seen him already.
The Mets have been dominant versus left-handed pitching of late.
Over the last 30 days, they own a league-leading weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+) of 161 with an OPS of .912.
In the same span, the Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of only 74 versus lefties and own a league-high 19.1 percent soft-contact rate.
So while Jose Quintana is obviously a lesser pitcher than Imanaga at this point in his career, he is facing a Cubs lineup on Friday that has been out of form.
Despite Imanaga’s brilliance, the Mets still look to be worthy of an underdog shot in Game 1 considering their other edges in this matchup.
Recommendation: Mets moneyline (+128, FanDuel)
Braves at Yankees
At 35, Chris Sale is authoring another excellent season, with an ERA of 2.98.
He owns a superb underlying profile, including an xERA of 2.72 and an xFIP of 2.48.
Over the last 121 plate appearances against Sale, the pitcher has struck out 30 percent of batters faced, walked only 4 percent and allowed an expected batting average (xBA) of .229.
He owns a Stuff+ rating of 107, and a Location+ rating of 102. His slider remains elite and has helped him generate a 35.9 percent chase rate.
The Yankees own lesser splits versus lefties than righties but will still offer a tough test for Sale.
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They have hit to a wRC+ of 119 versus lefties over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .752.
The Braves’ offense has been far less effective over the last month.
They have hit to a wRC+ of 98 against lefties, with an OPS of .703. They have struck out 22.8 percent of the time.
Carlos Rodon has enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign, with a 4.17 xERA and a 4.30 xFIP.
A matchup at Yankee Stadium is scary for any pitcher right now, but Sale has the stuff to stifle even the best offenses.
Rodon should continue to be a strong starting option the rest of the way, and the Braves’ offense isn’t in top form right now.
This total looks high given the starting pitching matchup, and there is value backing the Under.
Recommendation: Under 8 runs (-115, BetMGM)Â