One of the brilliant things about major international tournaments is there is no right or wrong way to get into a final.
You could get there by playing great stuff and overwhelming your opposition, like Spain has impressively done against the likes of Croatia, Italy, Germany or France.
Or you could find yourself in the showpiece thanks to an incredible draw, some timely scoring and a lot of good fortune, which is how England has ended up in a second consecutive final at the European Championships.
On two separate occasions, England was on the cusp of being eliminated in the early stages of the knockout rounds.
The Three Lions needed a 95th-minute equalizer from Jude Bellingham to send their match against Slovakia in the Round of 16 to extra-time and then fell behind Switzerland, 1-0, late in the quarterfinals before Bukayo Saka drew them level in the 80th minute.
Had the Three Lions not come from behind in either of those matches, Euro 2024 would have gone down as an one of the most disappointing tournaments in England’s history and manager Gareth Southgate would have been sacked.
Instead, England is now one win away from its first major trophy since 1966.
If handicapping this final was only about backing the better team, it would be a simple exercise.
Spain has been brilliant throughout the tournament despite having an incredibly difficult path.
La Furia Roja have scored 13 goals and allowed just three, and their underlying metrics are superb.
Spain is creating the most expected goals and big scoring chances per match in this tournament and has done it against strong opposition.
Defensively, Spain has had some wobbly moments but its overall numbers look terrific and goalkeeper Unai Simon has been able to provide cover in big moments, too.
Overall, Spain has had as strong a tournament as you could ask for considering its expectations and path.
The same can’t be said for England.
The Three Lions really struggled to generate anything going forward through their first five matches and preferred to play a safe brand of soccer even against opponents they should be able to overwhelm given their level of talent.
England amassed just five goals (including one in extra time) against the likes of Serbia, Denmark, Slovenia, Slovakia and Switzerland
And while England’s performance against the Netherlands was clearly its best yet in this tournament, it was still less than stellar.
The Three Lions fell behind for the third match in a row and fell off the boil in the second half, allowing the Netherlands to dictate the terms of the match.
But none of that matters now.
All England has to do is win one match and nobody will remember how poor it looked through the first five matches of the tournament.
Spain is the consensus favorite for Sunday’s match.
La Furia Roja are -150 favorites at BetMGM to lift the trophy and +145 to win the match inside 90 minutes.
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While I agree Spain should be favored, these odds do seem a bit wide.
England was the favorite to win this tournament when it started and was half the price of Spain in the outright market.
The way the competition has transpired has — and should — impact the prices, but this looks to be a bit of an overreaction.
England’s defense should be able to contain Spain’s elegant attack, which should turn this into more of a rock fight. That suits England and makes a bet at these prices worthwhile.
Recommendation: England to win inside 90 minutes (+240, BetMGM).