Last year’s Wimbledon final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic felt inevitable.
This year, it’s a different story.
While both players were among the favorites to win Wimbledon, the field felt deeper than it had been in years and the presence of Jannik Sinner in Alcaraz’s half of the draw threw a real wrench in his chances to repeat.
Djokovic already had endured an inconsistent start to the year before suffering an injury at the French Open.
He underwent knee surgery in the beginning of June and even though he was given the go-ahead to play at Wimbledon, very few were picking him to go on a deep run. And yet, here we are.
Alcaraz, who opened as the -155 favorite, certainly had to overcome the more difficult path to Sunday morning’s final, but he’s also been the less convincing player over the course of the tournament as a whole.
The Spaniard needed to come from a 2-1 deficit to beat an out-of-form Frances Tiafoe in five sets and had to battle Tommy Paul in the early stages of the quarterfinal before taking over that match.
It may sound like nitpicking, but the details matter against Djokovic.
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Alcaraz’s all-around game is hard to go against with Djokovic (+130) potentially not at 100%, but the Serb has looked like his old self during this fortnight and should benefit from a softer path to the final that included being handed a walkover in the quarterfinals.
This one has all the makings for a classic.
THE PLAY: Djokovic-Alcaraz Over 4.5 sets (+185, FanDuel)