ARLINGTON, Texas — Spencer Jones arrived at the Futures Game striking out in an Eastern League-high 37.1 percent of his plate appearances.
But he was in attendance — and that is not nothing with the Yankees farm system in 2024. Jones falls into the subset of underperforming Yankees prospects with Roderick Arias and Will Warren. But at least they are performing — as in being on the field.
Jasson Dominguez is basically going to miss the whole season, first recovering from Tommy John surgery and now sidelined by an oblique injury. Everson Pereira underwent elbow surgery. Chase Hampton, Henry Lalane and Carlos Lagrange just returned recently from sustained injury absences, and Clayton Beeter might miss the rest of the season with a shoulder ailment. Caleb Durbin has been out since late May with a hand injury. Brock Selvidge, who had been invited to the Futures Game, was pulled late due to biceps soreness that is not considered serious.
Oswald Peraza fills the Bingo card. He missed the outset of the season recovering from a shoulder injury and has had his prospect status plummet with poor performance.
“I call them the Red Flag organization,” said one scout who covers the Yankees. “There are upside plays, but there are red flags everywhere with results and injury.”
Combine that with the inventory the Yankees have traded in recent years, notably in pitching, and they face a trade deadline with outside questions about quantity and quality in prospect depth. And suddenly over the past few weeks their major league roster has revealed the need for multiple additions before July 30 at 6 p.m.
Keep in mind that prospects are like stocks, fluctuating all the time. And keeping pitchers, in particular, healthy at all levels is not a Yankees issue exclusively. As one talent evaluator said, “Two or three good weeks and everything changes [in evaluation].”
Plus, like beauty, prospect quality is in the eye of the beholder. For example, multiple talent evaluators mentioned still liking Warren despite his 6.64 Triple-A ERA. As one scout who covers the Yankees system said, “I haven’t forgotten what I saw in spring training when I thought he’d come up and help them at some point this year.”
Also, it would only take one seller to remain captivated by the upside of Jones’ power/athleticism combination to make a big deal. A scout who covers the system said, “There are tons of holes in [Jones’] swing, but when he squares one up, you end up talking about it for a week because of how far it goes.” Another: “There is moderate to high risk with him, but a lot to like.”
And one veteran scout said bluntly about the Yankees’ ability to get swaps done this month: “Brian Cashman is perhaps better than anyone else in trading his [expletive] prospects for something.”
So I suspect the Yankees will find a way to — at minimum — land a couple of relievers and a supplementary infield bat in the next two-plus weeks. To get that level of return, opposing talent evaluators mentioned players such as the rising bat of catcher Agustin Ramirez (a scout: “I’m not sure it will be at catcher, but I think he will hit in the majors.”), second baseman Jared Serna (“At least a useful utilityman, possibly a starting second baseman.”) and reliever Jack Neely (“Not far from going into a pen right now.”) as the kind of prospects who can help the Yankees at least marginally upgrade the roster from the outside.
Before Carlos Narvaez’s promotion to replace the injured Jose Trevino, a talent evaluator praised: “He’s sneaky good. He has real defense, I think there is some pop in the bat and he has a presence about him.”
But can the Yanks get involved for bigger pieces such as Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz, Mason Miller or Garrett Crochet if they are moved in the next few weeks?
For example, for the two remaining control years of Dylan Cease, the White Sox in the offseason said that Jones had to headline a deal and gave the Yankees a list of others who interested them including Peraza, Pereira and Warren.
Chicago is seriously weighing trading the new All-Star Crochet, who at some point this year due to his recent low work output might have to transition to the bullpen. The Yanks would probably love to have Crochet as a power lefty in the bullpen the rest of this season and a piece of the rotation moving forward. But what do the White Sox think now of players such as Jones, Peraza, Pereira and Warren? And remember even in spring, the Yanks were not finalists for Cease, when the Padres beat out the Rangers.
I have sensed the Yanks have no desire to trade Dominguez, who likely steps into their starting outfield next year. They drafted Jones first in 2022 hoping the 6-foot-6 Vanderbilt product could be a lefty version of Aaron Judge. Jones turned 23 in May — he is a few weeks younger than Anthony Volpe, but this remains his age-22 season. In his age-22 season, Judge was only at High-A, and though he was performing well, no one was putting historic player evaluations on him. So the Yanks hardly want to give up on Jones’ upside — and he does have lots of upside as shown Saturday in the Futures Game, when in two plate appearances he lined out at 100.7 mph, walked and stole a base.
But if the Yanks believe they are going to sign Juan Soto long-term and project to have an outfield of Soto, Judge and Dominguez for a while, would that make Jones more expendable?
Two evaluators concurred that the Yankees had Dominguez and Jones as their most protected prospects with last year’s first-round pick, shortstop George Lombard — who at 19 is playing very young at Low-A — just below that. The rest of the system was perceived as more available in trades.
“The Yankees get their prospects to hit the ball hard as hitters, and add velocity and spin as pitchers, and they are going to light up the models of teams that value players similarly, so they are going to have items to move,” the evaluator said. “But the system is not elite. It is down. There is less to pick from.”
