Jarad Wilk

Jarad Wilk

Betting

Fantasy baseball: Young Giants starter could be next hidden gem

Sometimes a change of scenery is all that’s needed to get a little perspective, or to clear your head. 

That could mean anything from taking a drive with no destination, taking a road trip with your significant other or taking a family vacation to, well, anywhere that isn’t Disney World. (Sorry, that place it too crowded and, once you have children, it’s not exactly what one would consider a “peaceful” getaway). 

The baseball trade deadline passed this week, and there were several players who found themselves in new homes, places that could help their value for the rest of the season.

Sometimes a change in location is all it takes for a player to turn a middling season around — or make it even better. 

San Francisco Giants pitcher Hayden Birdsong reacts after striking out Colorado Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon during the fifth inning of the second game of a baseball doubleheader Saturday, July 27, 2024, in San Francisco. AP

There were also players who didn’t move but were aided by a teammate being shipped away, like Hayden Birdsong in San Francisco. 

Alex Cobb hadn’t pitched the entire season because of hip and shoulder issues but was gearing up for a return to the Giants’ rotation.

That was before being traded to the Guardians, opening the door for Birdsong to rejoin San Francisco’s rotation (after being optioned after a July 27 start as Cobb neared a debut) and get plenty of opportunity down the stretch. 

Birdsong was 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, 11.3 strikeouts per nine, a .204 opponents’ average and a 15 percent swinging-strike rate in his first six big league starts. 

In his past two outings, both against the Rockies, he struck out 20 and had a 23 percent swinging-strike rate. He held Colorado to a .135 average and .454 OPS.

Hayden Birdsong of the San Francisco Giants points to the outfield to celebrate a defensive play in the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on July 21, 2024, in Denver, Colorado. Getty Images

He also has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts, and was 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA, 33 strikeouts, a 16 percent swinging-strike rate and .180 opponents average in five July starts. 

From June 26-July 27, Birdsong ranked ninth in strikeouts per nine (11.27), sixth in swinging-strike rate (14.8 percent), 17th in opponents’ average (.202) and 24th in ERA (2.97). 

This all tracks with what he did over 169 ²/₃ innings in the minors — where he owned a 3.02 ERA, 1.196 WHIP and struck out 13.1 per nine. 

Though Birdsong uses his mid-90s fastball 42.3 percent of the time and has a .220 opponents’ average and 20 percent whiff rate, it is his secondary pitches that have caused opponents to swing and miss early and often. 

Hayden Birdsong has impressed for the Giants. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Birdsong has a 39.7 percent whiff rate with his slider, a pitch he throws 22.8 percent of the time and opponents have hit .211 against.

He has a 43 percent whiff rate with his curve, and opponents are hitting .034 against it with a .054 xBA.

He throws his changeup 16.5 percent of the time and owns a 51.2 percent whiff rate with it.

Though opponents are hitting .421 against it, he had a .223 xBA with it. 

This is a young pitcher who has pitched in just six big league games, so there are going to be downfalls, with his 11.9 percent walk rate (the third-worst mark in the majors from June 26-July 27) being the big one.

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Hayden Birdsong (60) walks to the dugout after being removed from the game during the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Oracle Park. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

There also are his 3.65 xERA, 3.82 xFIP and 4.05 FIP — which all indicate he has been lucky (facing this Rockies twice obviously doesn’t hurt). 

At this stage of the season, however, Birdsong’s swing-and-miss stuff is hard to ignore.

Workload also shouldn’t be a factor after pitching 100 innings in 2023 and logging 87 innings between the minors and majors this year.

This is a young pitcher, rostered in fewer than 10 percent of ESPN leagues, who should be on fantasy managers’ radar as a potential hidden gem this late in the year. 

Here’s a look at some other arms that won big at the trade deadline: 

Zach Eflin (74.4 percent rostered) was drafted as a top-25 starter this season after finishing sixth in Cy Young voting in 2023 — when he was 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA, 9.4 strikeouts per nine and 1.2 walks per nine.

Besides having the second-lowest walks per nine (1.01) this season, it has been a disappointing follow-up season for the 30-year-old righty.

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Zach Eflin (24) throws out Cleveland Guardians’ Brayan Rocchio, left, at first base during the third inning of a baseball game in Cleveland, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024. AP

But things are looking up for Eflin after landing with Baltimore, where already earned his first win with his new team and went for No. 2 on Saturday.

It’s a great spot for Eflin, as he will have the support of a top-tier offense, and his xERA (3.47) is nearly a full run lower than the 4.11 ERA he took into Saturday’s start against Cleveland.

Do not discard Eflin, his stock is on the rise. 

Jack Flaherty (85.9 percent) was already having a solid season with the Tigers, his best since his 2019 breakout campaign with St. Louis.

He was 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA, 14 percent swinging-strike rate, .211 opponents’ average, and career-best marks in strikeouts (11.2) and walks (1.6) per nine before being traded to the Dodgers.

He has a good chance to rack up some more wins, as long as his back holds up. 

Erick Fedde (7-4, 3.11 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) was a pleasant first-half surprise on an awful White Sox squad.

He was 3-3 with a 3.11 ERA and .236 opponents’ average over his past 11 starts before taking the mound Friday for the Cardinals, his new team.

His xERA (3.77), FIP (3.76) and xFIP (3.96) all point to regression, but he should have a solid shot at success in St. Louis and is very much still worth a roster spot (and he is available in more than 35 percent of ESPN leagues). 

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Erick Fedde (12) delivers against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Former Marlin Trevor Rogers (2.5 percent) is several seasons removed from his 2021 breakout campaign in which he finished with a 2.64 ERA, 10.6 strikeouts per nine and a 1.150 WHIP while making the All-Star team.

He is just 26-years-old, and despite getting shellacked in his first start for the Orioles on Thursday, Roto Rage believes the lefty is, at the very least, worth monitoring.

In his past 11 starts before the trade, he was 1-3 with a 3.32 ERA with a .244 opponents’ average.

Not only should he get more run support with one of the top offenses in the league, but he also gets a nice defensive upgrade.

Keep an eye on him.

Big hits

Xander Bogaerts 2B/SS, Padres 

Had at least one hit in 12 of his first 13 games off the IL, hitting .453 with a homer, six RBIs, eight runs, a stolen base and a 1.087 OPS. 

Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres hits an RBI single against the Colorado Rockies during the seventh inning at Petco Park on August 3, 2024 in San Diego, California. Getty Images

Brady Singer SP, Royals 

Owned a 1.29 ERA and .181 opponents’ average while winning each of his past three starts, and is 4-3 with a 2.33 ERA, .222 opponents’ average and 11 percent swing-strike rate over his past nine. 

Colton Cowser OF, Orioles 

Entered Friday on a 14-game hit streak, hitting .385 with four homers, 13 RBIs, 13 runs, two stolen bases and a 1.114 OPS in that span. 

Eugenio Suarez 3B, Diamondbacks 

Though he entered Friday hitting .230 for the season, he hit .333 with 10 homers, 27 RBIs, 21 runs and a 1.131 OPS last month. 

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Eugenio Suarez celebrates in the dugout after scoring during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024, in Pittsburgh. AP

Big whiffs

Luis Robert OF, White Sox 

Struck out 25 times while hitting .174 in his previous 12 games before Friday. He whiffed 71 times over his previous 199 plate appearances. 

Drew Thorpe SP, White Sox 

Is 0-2 with a 22.24 ERA, .448 opponents’ average, 1-4 strikeout-walk rate and four homers allowed over his past two starts (5 ²/₃ innings). 

Taylor Ward OF, Angels 

Hit .174 with 34 strikeouts, four extra-base hits, two homers, 11 RBIs, seven runs and a .499 OPS in 24 games last month. 

Taylor Ward of the Los Angeles Angels hits a single for the Angels. Getty Images

Cristopher Sanchez SP, Phillies 

Not only has he lost three straight decisions, but he lost four of his five starts last month. Opponents hit .313 against him and scored 20 earned runs in 27 ¹/₃ innings (6.59 ERA). 


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Check swings

– Oakland’s Lawrence Butler ended June hitting .179 with two homers, eight RBIs, a 30.6 percent strikeout rate and .529 OPS in his first 52 games. He raised his average to .253 after going 33-for-91 (.363) with 10 homers, 27 RBIs, 23 RBIs, four stolen bases and a 1.210 OPS in 24 games in July. 

– Boston’s Masataka Yoshida entered July hitting .246, but ended July with a .279 average after going 26-for-78 (.333) with three homers, 20 RBIs, 13 runs and a .898 OPS. 

– Former Yankee Michael King was 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA, 29 strikeouts, no homers allowed, a 15 percent swinging-strike rate and a .131 opponents’ average in July. He has allowed more than two earned runs only once over his past 11 starts, going 5-2 with a 2.27 ERA, 77 strikeouts, a .205 opponents’ average and 12 percent swinging-strike rate. 

San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King (34) throws a third inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

– Yankees backstop Austin Wells (10.7 percent rostered) has found life at the plate in his first 11 games since the All-Star break, going 12-for-38 (.316) with two homers, seven RBIs, seven runs, a 9-8 strikeout-walk rate and .981 OPS. 

– Though Carlos Estevez had pitched two scoreless innings since being traded to the Phillies, the former Angels closer doesn’t appear to be lined up for the same role in his new home. That being said, he entered Friday having not allowed an earned run in 21 appearances since May 20 and opponents hit .063 against him in that span. 

– With All-Star Robert Suarez settled in the closer role for the Padres, San Diego wasn’t exactly the ideal landing spot for Tanner Scott, who will lose out on save chances despite allowing just two earned runs in his previous 37 appearances. He struck out 46 over his past 38 innings and limited opponents to a .122 average in that span. 

Blake Snell of the San Francisco Giants celebrates his first career no-hitter. Getty Images

– Blake Snell didn’t earn a win in four July starts (or in any of his first 10 outings), but got that elusive victory on Friday when he threw a no-hitter. The two-time Cy Young winner had a 0.75 ERA, 30-7 strikeout-walk rate and a .104 opponents’ average last month, and has a 0.55 ERA, 41 strikeouts, a .078 opponents’ average and 19 percent swinging strike rate over his last five starts. He has allowed no earned runs in four of his past five starts, and had allowed just two hits over his past two starts (51 batters faced). In those two outings, he has 26, a .044 opponents’ average and a crazy 23 percent swinging strike rate. It’s safe to say he’s been pretty hot. 

Team name of the week

The Hunter for Red October