In one week, the odds on Paul Skenes to win NL Rookie of the Year have gone from -3000 to -390 on FanDuel. Two things happened:
1. Skenes showed he was human, allowing four runs to the Dodgers in a series in which the Pirates were swept.
2. San Diego’s Jackson Merrill went 9-for-16 with four homers and eight RBIs in four games, helping the Padres keep pace with the Dodgers in the NL West.
For Skenes, it could be a one-game blip, although there are signs it might be rookie fatigue.
His “splinker” for the first time looked hittable, and he reached “only” 98.6 mph on his fastball in the first inning, a season-low, according to Codify Baseball.
Codify has also been tracking the number of times he’s hit 100 mph, and those are trending down too, from 53 times in his first five games to 21 in the next five to just four in his last five starts.
If the Pirates (56-62) fall completely out of it — they enter Tuesday six games behind the Braves for the final wild-card spot — their phenom is a prime candidate to be shut down.
Combine that with a late start to his rookie season, and voters could have a tough time handing hardware to a player with an incomplete resume.
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We’re fading Skenes for Merrill, a runaway winner in any other season who has been consistent from start to finish.
THE PLAY: Jackson Merrill to win NL Rookie of the Year (+275, DraftKings).