Harris inches ahead of Trump in all but two battleground states: poll
In yet another batch of polling showing momentum on her side, Vice President Kamala Harris topped or tied former President Donald Trump in all but one battleground state, a new survey dump found.
On average, Harris held a 48%-47% lead over Trump in the top seven battleground states, toppling him in all but Georgia, where they tied, and Nevada, where the former president eked out an edge, according to a Cook Political Report poll.
When third-party contenders were added to the mix, Harris, 59, gained an additional point on Trump 46%-44%.
In a one-on-one battle, Harris in Arizona nabbed 48% to Trump’s 46%, tied in Georgia (48%-48%), led in Michigan (49%-46%), North Carolina (48%-47%), Pennsylvania (49%-48%) and Wisconsin (49%-46%), and trailed only in Nevada (45%-48%).
With third-party aspirants added to the fray, Harris in Arizona scored 46% to Trump’s 42%, still tied in Georgia (46%-46%), still led in Michigan (46%-44%), North Carolina (46%-44%), Pennsylvania (48%-43%) and Wisconsin (48%-43%), and slipped even further in Nevada (42%-47%).
When President Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, third-party contenders getting thrown into the mix would benefit Trump.
Polls have pegged mixed results as to whether third-party contenders hinder Trump more than Harris. Several recent polls have found that Trump fares worse against Harris when third-party candidates are factored in, but some of the RealClearPolitics aggregates find the opposite to be true.
For example, Harris has a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the most recent national RCP aggregate of polls for a two-way matchup. When third-party contenders are added in, that slips to a 0.8-point lead.
Also of note in the Cook Political Report’s findings is Harris dispatching Trump in North Carolina, which was generally regarded as one of the reddest of the top battleground states.
Trump has his second-largest lead of the battleground states in North Carolina, according to the most recent RCP aggregate, with a 2.4-point edge.
That’s only behind Nevada, where Trump is up 3.5 points, per RCP.
Nevada hasn’t voted for a Republican in a presidential election cycle since 2004.
Back in June, Trump unveiled a “no tax on tips” policy proposal seemingly aimed at the service-heavy Silver State.
Harris copied that proposal at a rally in Las Vegas last week.
The move could cost between $150 billion and $250 billion over the next decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Overall, Harris appears to have winnowed down Trump’s lead in the swing states by about six points since May.
In Cook Political Report’s May findings, Trump toppled Biden with an average of 3 points overall and was either leading him or dead even with him in all seven of those battleground states.
That survey dump from May notably found Senate Democrats outperforming Biden across the board in those key bellwether states, something that spooked that party and loomed over the mutiny against him last month.
The most recent Cook Political Report survey sampled 2,867 likely voters between July 26 and Aug. 2.
It was taken by GS Strategy Group, a Republican polling firm, and BSG, a Democratic polling firm.
Trump’s campaign predicted that polls would tighten dramatically after Harris jumped to the top of the ticket last month.
Its pollster Tony Fabrizio argued that there would be a “honeymoon” phase for Harris, but contended that the dynamics of the race wouldn’t change that much.
Last week, the Cook Political Report’s handicapper moved three states — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — away from Trump, switching them from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”
