With the excitement of another NFL season around the corner, there’s no better time to begin adding futures to your overall portfolio.
One market that’s starting to grow in popularity is teams that will finish with the worst regular-season record.
It picked up steam on Wednesday when the Vikings announced quarterback J.J. McCarthy would miss his rookie season with a meniscus injury that will require surgery.
Even before the news broke, Minnesota was squarely in the crosshairs for bettors in the worst-record market.
This preview will highlight the trends you need to know to navigate this market successfully.
Recent history of NFL teams with the worst record
Bookmakers are rarely off the mark when setting their odds for the worst record in the NFL.
According to Tom Brolley at Fantasy Points, teams with odds of 10/1 or shorter cashed seven times over the last eight seasons.
Thus, this is probably one market where you don’t want to get too carried away in picking a long shot off the board.
If you go through the process and remain undecided, you might want to consider using a team’s strength of schedule to help narrow the field.
Based on our criteria for picking the team to finish with the worst record, we should try to limit our options to those with odds of 10/1 or lower.
That would essentially leave us with the following teams: the Patriots (+300), Broncos (+600), Panthers (+700) and Giants (10/1).
However, if we also factor in strength of schedule, we should probably make an exception for the Vikings (12/1), especially with McCarthy done for the year (odds via FanDuel).
All signs point to New England
Quarterbacks play a massive role in how a team’s season unfolds.
While the Patriots will likely start career backup Jacoby Brissett in Week 1, it wouldn’t be surprising if Drake Maye, their 2024 first-round pick, supplanted Brissett at some point in the season.
The Patriots were never really in the running for the big-name free agents during the offseason.
Instead, they set their sights on some lower targets while opting to re-sign key players on their team.
There isn’t a lot they can sell to their New England fan base outside of potentially a new franchise quarterback with Maye.
Moreover, the Patriots have arguably the second-toughest schedule based on the sum of their opponents’ projected win totals.
New England should easily be the worst team in a strong AFC East, and there aren’t many games on the schedule that can be confidently chalked up as wins.
The market is spot on, with the Patriots as favorites to finish with the worst record, and there’s still value in New England, even with +300 odds.
Vikings offer value after McCarthy news
If you’re looking for a team with longer odds, Minnesota is an excellent option, given its strength of schedule and problems at the quarterback position.
Vikings opponents have the fifth-highest projected win total, and the team faces a huge drop-off in talent following the departure of Kirk Cousins to the Falcons.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
McCarthy’s knee injury all but guarantees that Sam Darnold will be the Vikings starter.
Darnold has yet to prove he can be a reliable starter in the NFL.
The USC product has disappointed since being drafted third overall by the Jets in 2018.
Last season, the Vikings unsuccessfully juggled quarterbacks after Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8.
If they have to do so again, they could find themselves picking at the top of the draft in 2025.
Best bets for NFL’s worst regular-season record
Patriots (+300); Vikings (12/1)