THERE’S so much to unpack from the Jets’ 32-19 loss to the 49ers before we can make a selection (hazard a guess) on what will happen Sunday in Tennessee.
The most obvious deficiency, of course, was the run defense — which wasn’t just bad, it was virtually non-existent. It’s not just that Jordan Mason ran for 147 yards and the 49ers rushed for 180 overall without Christian McCaffrey. And truthfully, watching the game it felt as if those numbers were much higher.
How it happened might be more troublesome. Mason was credited with 94 yards before contact, meaning the defensive line was completely blown off the ball all night. If a defense gets beaten by scheme or penalties or poor tackling, those things can be addressed or self-corrected. But if the defensive line is getting shredded like mozzarella cheese on pizza, there might not be as much for Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to do.
Of course, this huge problem wasn’t totally unpredictable. Run-stuffers Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson, and pass-rushing ends John Franklin-Myers and Bryce Huff are gone, and, at least as of Monday night, not adequately replaced. It looks as if holdout Haason Reddick is going to miss a second game.
The rest of Monday’s loss was a mixed bag. Aaron Rodgers looked good if not so mobile on his repaired Achilles. He can still get the ball downfield with accuracy, and his immediate chemistry with Garrett Wilson was encouraging. The offensive line didn’t give Breece Hall much space, but not every team does against the great 49ers.
It’s a second straight road game for the Jets, and on a short week. The Titans aren’t much, but they did have 140 yards rushing on the road against the Bears, so at least they seem equipped to hammer at the Jets’ apparent biggest weakness.
Figuring the Rodgers-vs.-Will Levis edge and the wounded pride of the defense will give the Jets a nice rebound against a team that should end up near the bottom of the league.
The pick: Jets -4.
Giants (+1.5) over COMMANDERS
Daniel Jones has a 5-1-1 career record against Washington compared to 17-37 against all other teams. So if there’s any redemption left for Danny Dimes, this is the time and place. The Commanders defense got carved up by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers last week.
New coach Dan Quinn is collecting a bit of an “Over the Hill Gang” in D.C. with Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz and Bobby Wagner. There’s not much beyond the promise of Jayden Daniels.
Colts (-2.5) over PACKERS
The line moved about a touchdown in the Colts’ direction thanks to the injury to Packers QB Jordan Love. Malik Willis is new in Green Bay, but his awful career stats (zero touchdowns, three interceptions, 15 sacks) precede him. The Colts have too much on both sides of the ball, starting with QB Anthony Richardson.
VIKINGS (+5.5) over 49ers
It’s often a tough scheduling spot to travel in a short week off a rousing Monday night win. The 49ers are good enough to power through, and the Vikings’ win at the Giants might be a bit of fool’s gold. Still, this number feels a little high for the road team if Minnesota indeed is for real.
RAVENS (-8.5) over Raiders
The Ravens have the advantage of a few extra days of rest while the Raiders travel far for a second straight road game. Last season, Baltimore had double-digit home wins over the Texans, Lions, Seahawks, Bengals and Dolphins.
Buccaneers (+7.5) over LIONS
The Bucs offense had its way with Washington’s defense but, again, we’ll find out over time how much that was worth. All-world offensive tackle Penei Sewell and WR Jameson Williams are banged up, so that could affect the Lions’ ability to win by margin.
COWBOYS (-6) over Saints
Both teams are coming off blowout wins (Cowboys 33-17 at Browns and was 33-10 before a garbage-time TD; Saints 47-10 over the completely helpless Panthers). Going to lay the points here because the Cowboys are already battle-tested and put up some massive home-victory margins last season.
Seahawks (-3.5) over PATRIOTS
In Jerod Mayo’s coaching debut, the Patriots pulled what could be the upset of the entire season in Cincinnati. A 16-10 type of score with 120 yards from Rhamondre Stevenson and a nine-minute edge in possession is the blueprint but will be hard to sustain. Reality begins to set in beginning Sunday vs. Seattle.
Chargers (-5.5) over PANTHERS
This is the NFL, so it’s entirely possible a team can lose 47-10 one week and win the next. It’s not likely, though. Jim Harbaugh has totally changed the style of the Chargers, adding tough runners Gus Edwards and J.K Dobbins behind rookie tackle Joe Alt. And Justin Herbert vs. Bryce Young is the quarterback mismatch of the week.
Browns (+3) over JAGUARS
The injury report isn’t quite as daunting for the Browns as it was earlier in the week, as offensive linemen Joel Bitonio and Jack Conklin are likely to go. Deshaun Watson is facing a new lawsuit for an alleged 2020 sexual assault, which he “strongly denies.” Figuring he and the Browns are way better than they showed against the Cowboys.
CARDINALS (-1) over Rams
Cardinals had a 17-3 lead in Buffalo before narrowly covering in a 34-28 loss. Figuring Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. will hook up for more than one time for 4 yards. Rams already have some injury concerns, including important WR Puka Nacua, who’s on IR.
Bengals (+6) over CHIEFS
The Bengals suffered the most stunning upset loss in Week 1, and that leaves us probably with an extra 1-2 points of spread value on this line. Joe Burrow has an AFC Championship win at Arrowhead Stadium on his résumé and is 3-1 against the Chiefs overall.
BRONCOS (+2.5) over Steelers
This line moved from 3.5 through the key number of three, so there’s some momentum in the market toward the Broncos. Bo Nix was bad in his debut, but I expect Sean Payton will get him up to speed some. And though the Steelers are great as underdogs, it’s harder to justify laying points on the road with Justin Fields.
TEXANS (-6.5) over Bears
Tough first career road spot for Caleb Williams after a comeback win over Tennessee in which he had just 93 yards passing. Texans are far better competition, though they gave up a back-door cover to the Colts.
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Monday
EAGLES (-6.5) over Falcons
Kirk Cousins moved a little gingerly on his repaired Achilles vs. the Steelers, and the Eagles have the menaces up front to get after him. This Eagles offense looks as if it can put up some huge numbers.
Best bets: Colts, Buccaneers, Chargers
Lock of the week: Colts (Locks 0-1 in 2024)
Last week: 6-9-1 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
Thursday: Bills (W)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
