Hurricane Joaquin Path: Virginia, Maryland Landfall Possible; Northeast Threatened

By TOM DAVIS (Patch Staff)

The latest forecast for Hurricane Joaquin suggests the storm may hit Virginia and Maryland late in the weekend and go on to impact other states as it heads north along the East Coast.

The longterm forecast is still uncertain, according to National Weather Service, but it’s the first alarm for many communities that have enjoyed a quiet Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center declared Joaquin a hurricane at 8 a.m. on Wednesday.

The National Weather Service has issued its first warning in weeks, saying Joaquin is expected to move northward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Depending on the track, another round of potential heavy rainful may result in flooding.

Initial projections had the storm touching the Southeast, but that forecast was later changed to show its path pointed toward the Eastern tip of North Carolina by Sunday afternoon.

Even if it doesn’t strike the coast, it will still have noticeable weather effects.

“Regardless of the ultimate outcome of Joaquin’s path, portions of the East Coast will still see multiple impacts from the evolving large-scale weather pattern, including flooding rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and some coastal flooding,” the Weather Channel says.

The Weather Channel described Joaquin as a “difficult forecast,” with four different weather patterns making life tough for forecasters.

Here are the current elements influencing the storm, according to the Weather Channel:

• A cold front near the East Coast
• Remnants of Tropical Storm Ida in the Southeast Atlantic
• High pressure over the North Atlantic
• Low pressure approaching the Southeast

“Joaquin’s future depends critically on the position and relative strength of those players,” the Weather Channel says. “Not to mention its own strength, which is currently being limited by strong wind shear that’s keeping most of its thunderstorm activity south of its center of circulation.”

Image via National Weather Service