Morris Area Hospitals Lack Beds For Coronavirus Surge: Report

NORTH JERSEY – With the number of new coronavirus cases increasing nationwide and in our area, the Morris County area is projected to run out of beds for patients in some hospitals if the number of infected people rises by even a few hundred.

The warning about the potential for overwhelmed hospitals comes from an analysis by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica.

The report underscores the seriousness of the need to "flatten the curve" through social distancing, which health officials hope will slow the spread of the disease and keep hospital caseloads manageable. But even in what experts consider a moderate rate of infection, ProPublica said, Morris-area hospitals would fall short of the demand for beds, the report says.

Gov. Phil Murphy has ordered schools and non-essential businesses closed in an attempt to stunt the increase in cases, and he's also banned gatherings of 50 people ore more. Read more: NJ Coronavirus Updates: Here's What You Need To Know

As of 2:30 p.m. Wednesday, New Jersey has recorded 427 confirmed cases and five deaths.

Atlantic Health, which owns Morristown Medical Center, Hackettstown Medical Center, Newton Medical Center, Overlook Medical Center and Chilton Medical Center said that they are preparing for increase in need.

"As always, Atlantic Health System's top priority is the safety of our patients, communities and health care professionals," officials said. "Our expert clinicians regularly care for patients with severe respiratory illnesses and other infectious diseases."

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, the Morristown area had 1,860 total hospital beds, of which about 68 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 590 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 150 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The Morristown area has a population of about 1.0 million residents; 15 percent are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In the moderate scenario, in which 40 percent of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Morristown area would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8 percent of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40 percent of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Morristown area would receive an estimated 66,400 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 2,210 beds over 12 months, which is 3.8 times times the number of available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Morristown area, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 54 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 8.9 times times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

For the analysis, Dr. Ashish Jha and his team selected various rates of infection and modeled hospital capacity for each over three time periods, six months, 12 months and 18 months. The infection rate scenarios are based on estimates from leading epidemiologist Dr. Marc Lipsitch, head of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, who made the projections of how many people globally would be infected. (Read more about the methodology here.)

From Atlantic Health System:

Atlantic Health System said it is acting proactively to better facilitate care to all of patients, erecting temporary structures at some of their locations to triage patients:

• Morristown Medical Center in partnership with the Morris County Office of Emergency Management and the Morris County Office of Health Management, has built a self-contained, patient triage and assessment system located adjacent to the emergency department on its Madison Avenue campus. The structure has dedicated space for patient evaluations and treatment by qualified medical professionals.
• Hackettstown and Newton Medical Centers have stationed self-contained, patient triage and assessment systems adjacent to the emergency departments – Medical Office Building One at 657 Willow Grove Street in Hackettstown and an Advanced Screening Triage trailer at 175 High Street in Newton. Both structures have dedicated space for patient evaluations and treatment by qualified medical professionals.
• Overlook Medical Center recently stationed a temporary triage structure outside of its emergency department at the Overlook Medical Center Union Campus, to help more efficiently assess patients with concerns for COVID-19 while patients with other medical needs to be seen expeditiously. The 8-by-40-foot open container office, similar in structure to a shipping container, was stationed at the Union Campus on Wednesday and is operational. An additional, 20-by-40-foot tent-like structure will be erected at Overlook Medical Center's main campus, in Summit.
• Chilton Medical Center is preparing to erect a 35-by-19-foot tent structure outside its emergency department for similar purposes later this week.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica’s full story and specifics about hospitals in your area