'Extremely Active' Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted For 2024

ACROSS AMERICA — Hurricane researchers warned Thursday of an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with intense, long-lasting storms that could become more frequent if a La Niña climate pattern forms as expected.

The researchers at Colorado State University said the overall probability of major hurricanes making landfall somewhere in the continental U.S. is 62 percent, compared to an average of 43 percent, researchers said in the early look at the June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season.

More specifically, the researchers said the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is:

• 34 percent for the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, compared to an average of 21 percent;
• 42 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, compared to an average of 27 percent;
• 66 percent for the Caribbean, compared to an average of 47 percent.

The research team predicts 23 named tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, five of which could be Category 3 or higher “major” hurricanes. The chances for a busy season are a combination of record-warm Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns that boost tropical cyclones, researchers said.

Researchers said they have “above-normal confidence” in the forecast, but offered the caveat that “considerable changes” can occur in the atmosphere-ocean between April and the peak of the hurricane season.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the group said in a news release.

Storms could become more frequent as the season wears on. The researchers said accumulated cyclone energy, which measures storm frequency, intensity and duration, could be more than twice as high as normal, reaching 170 percent of average by the end of the season.

An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms — seven hurricanes, three of them major. The 2023 season saw 20 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Researchers explained that while an El Niño heats up the atmosphere and changes wind circulation patterns, a La Niña climate pattern suppresses those winds, creating ideal conditions for hurricanes to form and gather strength.

In its March forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said the chances a La Niña will develop are about 55 percent from June to August and 77 percent chance from September to November.