Fall Foliage Peak 2023: When To Time Leaf-Peeping Tours In VA

VIRGINIA — A new interactive map that helps leaf-peepers time their fall foliage tours suggests leaves in Northern Virginia and the mountains will be their most brilliant the week of Oct. 23, while the peak of color arrives Oct. 30 for the rest of the state.

The 2023 Fall Foliage Prediction Map, released last week from the travel group SmokyMountains.com, uses a refined data model that takes into consideration factors, including historical and forecast temperatures and precipitation, the types of trees prominent in specific geographic areas, and real-time user reports.

The map is easy to use. The slider at the bottom resets weekly to include the latest data. To see when leaves are expected to peak, move the slider to the right. Leaves haven’t started changing yet in green areas, and the brown color means foliage has passed its peak.

Like any meteorological forecast dependent upon weather variables, leaf predictions aren’t always 100 percent accurate, but the map does give Virginia leaf-peepers a pretty good shot at seeing autumn leaves when they turn their most blazing reds, vibrant orange and sunny yellows, map creator David Angotti said in a news release.

Angotti, an expert in statistics and a former airline transport pilot, used his understanding of weather patterns and meteorological tools to create the predictive map in 2013 as a tool for visitors to the Smoky Mountains who wanted to time their trips to the fall foliage peak.

As data collected in subsequent years has been added to the model, it has become a go-to tool for “tens of millions of people use our map each year to plan vacations, weddings and photography trips,” Angotti said.

“What started as a fun side project quickly became the most respected nationwide fall leaf map and one of the best fall resources in the country,” Angotti said.

New this year is the ability of map users to submit photos reflecting the actual progression of fall. That information will be added to the formula used to develop the map, which should make predictions next year more accurate, Angotti said.

Most map users are interested in learning when the leaves will peak close to where they live.

Patchy spots of color will show up the week of Oct. 2 in Virginia's mountains and the northern counties, with partial changes statewide a week later, the mountains and the northern counties at near-peak color status the week of Oct. 16 and peak a week later, followed by the rest of the state reaching peak colors by Oct. 30.

For people planning to travel, the site curated a list of the best places to see fall foliage in every state.

The Virginia Department of Forestry's recommended fall foliage driving tours designed by local foresters include:

• Charlottesville Area - Greene County
• Harrisonburg Area - Rockingham County
• Harrisonburg Area - Shenandoah County
• Lexington Area - Bath County
• Front Royal Area - Warren County
• Roanoke Area - Bedford County
• Roanoke Area - Craig County
• Roanoke Area - Franklin County
• Staunton Area - Highland County

Other top places to see fall leaves in Virginia to consider:

Shenandoah National Park

Shenandoah National Park features beautiful fall scenery across its entire landscape. Bold autumn hues await your arrival in the wooded hollows, fields of wildflowers, and all around the scenic vistas. For the best fall views, visit Old Rag Mountain to see the tree canopies create a quilt of color. Don't miss the Big Meadows either to find fall blooms and watch the tall grasses change their hues.

Whitetop Mountain

With a trip up to the summit of Whitetop Mountain, you can gaze in wonder at the colorful grasses, shrubs, and trees. If you go early in the season, you can also enjoy the wondrous calls of songbirds, including black-throated green warbler and dark-eyed junco. All it takes to get there is a leisurely drive up the gravel road right off State Route 600, near the Tennessee border. Once you reach the top, there's nothing between you and the patchwork of reds, oranges, and golds as far as the eye can see.

Potomac Heritage Trail

Looking to stay closer to D.C., the Potomac Heritage Trail lets you meander along the riverside at your leisure. Whether you choose to hike or ride your bike, you can stay on the main trail to follow the Potomac River's journey. Or you can opt for the side trails to loop through the forests full of tulip poplars, sycamores, and oak trees. The views are perhaps even more impressive right on the Potomac River, so don't hesitate to bring down your canoe or kayak.