On The Margin

Blockworks
  • 4.5 (99)
  • BUSINESS
  • UPDATED SEMIWEEKLY
On The Margin Podcast

The worlds of macro finance and crypto are continuing to draw closer together. On the Margin will host some of the greatest minds in the world of asset management, markets, and discuss how ideas that were once on the margin are now becoming mainstream.

  1. 2 HR. AGO

    Generating Alpha in Macro | Capital Flows

    In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss his macro philosophy & framework, why he was bullish after the VIX surge, and his views on the yield curve. We also discuss the equity bull market, whether the Fed will allow a recession, and the key drivers of bitcoin's price. Enjoy! -- Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:59) Capital Flows Research & Strategy (04:49) Macro Philosophy (07:48) Macro Framework (11:39) Bullish After VIX Surge (15:26) Credit & Duration Risk (18:46) Mantra Ad (19:26) Interest Rate Expectations (25:51) Bull Vs Bear Steepener (27:27) What's Priced Into The Curve (30:38) Permissionless Ad (31:17) What's Driving The Equity Bull Market (36:31) Upside Tail Risks (39:31) Will The Fed Allow An Extended Recession? (43:58) Bitcoin Price Drivers -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    55 min

  2. 4 DAYS AGO

    Has The Dust Settled? | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market’s economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July’s CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:39) Schrödinger's Soft Landing (04:19) What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy? (06:54) The Fed Kept Its Cool (09:05) Massive VIX Decline (11:40) Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off? (18:06) The Role Of Flows (21:57) July CPI (24:58) What's Going On With China? (29:13) The Fed's Next Move (31:26) Market Overreaction (34:17) Bitcoin & ETFs (40:06) Frustrating Crypto Market (42:48) How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own? (44:09) What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral? (47:53) Why The BOJ Backpedaled (53:41) The Globalization Of Central Banks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    56 min

  3. AUG 12

    The Mystery Behind The Stock Market Sell-Off | Alex Campbell

    In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss volatility, "Magnificent Seven" concentration, and dispersion trades. We also unpack the mechanics of the carry trade, how short volatility and hedging strategies are shaping the markets, and the role of artificial intelligence in finance. Enjoy! -- Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Market Volatility Overview (04:51) Magnificent Seven Concentration (06:24) Dispersion Trades (10:49) Market Risks & Correlations (14:09) Mantra Ad (15:15) The Carry Trade (18:14) Market Volatility Vs Credit & The Economy (23:44) Impact Of Short Volatility & Hedging On Markets (31:25) Permissionless Ad (32:04) Artificial Intelligence And Alex's Startup Rose AI (34:54) Collecting & Using Market Data (39:44) The Future Of Finance (43:46) Future Of The AI Industry (46:20) Alex's Thoughts On Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    50 min
  4. Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup

    AUG 10

    Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss the unwinding of the carry trade, the impact of correlations during deleveraging events, and which assets stand to benefit the most from increased liquidity and upcoming rate cuts. We also delve into the widening of credit spreads, steel man the recession argument, and examine the state of the labor market. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:38 Reflecting On The Market Unwind 07:41 No Asset Spared In Deleveraging Events 12:23 Polkadot Ad 13:22 Navigating Extreme Volatility 18:39 Assessing Liquitidy Signals 21:23 What Benefits The Most From Liquidity & Rate Cuts? 23:36 Looking At Credit Spreads 26:14 Steel Man-ing The Recession Argument 42:30 Permissionless Ad 43:10 State Of The Labor Market 45:38 Where Is Economic Growth? 50:37 Is The Recession On Its Way? 55:18 Crypto Market Overview 01:03:36 Biggest Trading Mistakes 01:08:26 How Much Of The Carry Trade Is Unwound -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    1h 14m

  5. AUG 7

    Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm

    In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy! -- Follow guest: https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:13) What is the Sahm Rule? (06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered (08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule (10:20) Are We in a Recession? (14:05) Mantra Ad (15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule (18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession (21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0 (22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule (24:35) July Unemployment Report (32:10) Permissionless Ad (32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market (38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates? (40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    46 min

  6. AUG 2

    Why Are Markets Unwinding? | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss another volatile week in markets with the continuing deleveraging that took place as on the back of a data heavy week. We discuss our takeaways from FOMC, QRA, economic data & the market reaction. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:28) QRA & FOMC Takeaways (16:07) Why Are Markets Unwinding? (23:51) The Yen Carry Trade Unwind (26:11) Permissionless Ad (26:50) What's Happening In Crypto? (31:13) Coinbase Earnings (35:39) Tether Earnings -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    48 min

  7. AUG 1

    The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan

    In this episode, Danny Dayan joins the show to break down what he is seeing in markets post FOMC. With rate cuts expected & markets continuing to melt up, Danny makes the case for why the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates here. Enjoy! -- Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) FOMC Takeaway's (03:24) The Economy Is Strong, Should The Fed Cut Rates? (11:03) Mantra Ad (12:10) Why Is This Economic Cycle Different? (17:56) QRA & The QT Impact (22:08) What's The Trade? (28:27) Permissionless Ad (29:05) Stock Market Rotation & The Yen Carry Trade Unwind (37:51) What's Next For Markets? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    43 min

  8. JUL 27

    Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup

    This week we discuss the volatile week in markets with the deleveraging that took place as the Yen carry trade unwound. With markets quickly bouncing back, we discuss is it time to be bullish? We then deep dive into the launch of the ETH ETFs, the path forward for crypto & the inflation outlook. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    1h 2m
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4.5
out of 5
99 Ratings

About

The worlds of macro finance and crypto are continuing to draw closer together. On the Margin will host some of the greatest minds in the world of asset management, markets, and discuss how ideas that were once on the margin are now becoming mainstream.

Information

  • Creator
    Blockworks
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2024
  • Episodes
    365
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 384141 Blockworks 2021

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