Partisan Animosity and America

The Path to the 2024 Presidential Election: Culture Wars

Published

May 31, 2024

Executive Summary

Key findings include:

  • Agreement on gun control and transgender athletes, disagreement on CRT and book bans:
    • 60% of Americans support stricter gun control laws and the participation of transgender athletes in sports based on their birth-assigned gender.
    • Americans are divided on the inclusion of critical race theory (CRT) in education and the banning of books in public schools.
  • Partisan divides on most but not all culture war issues:
    • Democrats generally oppose banning CRT or books from schools while supporting gun control. They are divided on the issue of transgender athletes.
    • Republicans support restrictions on transgender athletes and book bans, while also supporting current gun laws or advocating for stricter ones.
    • Independents take a middle position between Democrats and Republicans on these issues.
  • Non-whites would welcome more attention to racial diversity but not transgender rights:
    • Whites are more supportive of banning books and restricting teachers from promoting critical race theory, while other racial groups prefer more attention to racial diversity over transgender diversity.
    • There is broad support for stricter gun control across all racial groups.
  • Young respondents more open to debates on transgender rights and racial diversity:
    • Younger respondents tend to be more supportive of transgender rights and racial diversity, advocating for increased attention to these issues in public discourse.

Main Results

This the fifth in a series of monthly reports on the state of partisan animosity conducted by the Polarization Research Lab (PRL) at Dartmouth College, University of Pennsylvania, and Stanford University. The focus of this May 2024 report is culture wars. This report looks at 3000 interviews conducted in May 2024.

Culture war issues in America

Over the last several decades culture war issues, including LGBTQ+ rights, gun control, education, and racial diversity, have become a significant divide in America. We show that Americans hold very different opinions on many, but not all, of these issues along partisan lines. While our survey shows that Democrats and Republicans remain strongly divided on the content of education in public schools, colleges, and universities, they hold more similar opinions on transgender athletes in high school sports and gun control than commonly assumed.

The term “culture wars” gained prominence in the 1990s and reflects deep ideological divisions over liberal and conservative values, beliefs, and social norms. Today, culture wars significantly shape American politics by intensifying polarization between liberals and conservatives and influencing policymaking in Congress. Both Democratic and Republican campaigns leverage cultural issues to mobilize their bases, frame their opponents, and define their platforms. Culture wars continue to play an important role in voter behavior, media discourse, and legislative priorities.

Given the ubiquity of debates over culture war issues, this report presents results from a survey that asked Americans about their stances on these issues and the attention they believe these issues should receive in public discourse. Furthermore, we explore how partisanship, racial background, and generational divides influence opinions on culture war issues.

Agreement on stricter gun laws and transgender athletes, varied views on CRT and book bans

We asked respondents about their opinions on four prominent culture war issues: legislation that would strip public college and university faculty of their lifetime tenure if they teach critical race theory (CRT), removing books from public schools if parents consider them inappropriate, allowing transgender athletes to participate in high school sports only as the gender assigned at birth, and gun control.

We find significant differences in support for issues concerning CRT and book bans.

3 in 10 support legislation to dismiss professors who teach critical race theory, while 4 in 10 oppose it.

31.6% support legislation that would strip public college and university faculty of their lifetime tenure if they teach critical race theory, while a larger share of 38.4% oppose such measures. 30.1% are undecided on this issue.

4 in 10 support removing books in public schools if they are identified by parents as inappropriate, while 4 in 10 oppose it.

38.1% of Americans support public schools removing books if they are identified by parents as inappropriate. 43.7% oppose such measures. 18.2% are undecided on this issue.

In contrast, a majority of Americans agrees on issues related to transgender athletes and gun laws.

6 in 10 believe transgender athletes should only compete in high school sports according to their birth-assigned gender

60.2% agree transgender athletes should only be allowed to participate in high school sports as the gender they were assigned at birth, while 19.1% disagree with this statement. 20.7% have no clear opinion on this issue.

6 in 10 in favor of more restrictive gun policy

60.3% support laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, while 13.4% want them to be less strict. 26.3% support keeping current gun laws.

Preference for more attention to racial diversity, less to transgender rights

Besides opinions on culture war issues, there is an ongoing debate on whether transgender rights and racial inclusion and diversity should receive more attention in public discourse. We asked our respondents whether these topics should receive more or less attention, or whether the current attention level is about right. We find that a narrow majority of Americans believes that transgender rights should receive less attention.

A majority of 5 in 10 prefer less attention to transgender rights

52.6% support that transgender rights should receive less attention in public discourse, while 23.9% would like to see more attention to this issue. 23.4% think the current level is about right.

This contrasts with attention to racial diversity, where a plurality of Americans thinks it deserves more attention in public discourse.

A plurality of 4 in 10 prefer more attention to racial diversity

A much higher share of 40.2% would welcome more attention to racial diversity, while 34.1% would like to see less. 25.6% think the current level is about right.

Mixed perceptions on alignment of Hamas’ goals with LGBTQ+, BLM, Liberals, and Conservatives

In the wake of the October 2023 attack on Israel, the attacking Islamist terror organization Hamas has regularly been discussed in public discourse in American politics. While an overwhelming majority of Americans have been found to support Israel over Hamas (source), the salience of this terrorist group in public discourse provides an extreme but clear benchmark against which respondents could evaluate different groups associated with culture wars. We ask respondents whether they think that the LGBT+ movement, Black Lives Matter (BLM), liberals, or conservatives share similar goals with Hamas. We find that only a small share of Americans believe that any of these groups pursue common goals with Hamas.

Between 2-3 in 10 think that LGBTQ+, BLM’s, Liberals’, and Conservatives’ goals are similar to Hamas

A small share of 19.3% think that the political goals of Hamas are similar to the LGBTQ+ movement, while a majority of 53.5% think they are different. 27.2% have no clear opinion on this issue.

A slightly larger share of 30.8% believe that the political goals of Hamas are similar to the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, while a majority of 44.1% think they are different. 25.1% have no clear opinion on this issue.

A marginally larger portion of 27.5% think that the political goals of Hamas are similar to Liberals, while a majority of 46.5% think they are different. 26% have no clear opinion on this issue.

Compared to Liberals, a slightly smaller share of 19.5% think that the political goals of Hamas are similar to Conservatives, while a majority of 53.9% think they are different. 26.5% have no clear opinion on this issue.

Partisan divides on culture war issues

Culture wars often reflect divides between liberal and conservative value orientations, which have aligned with Democratic and Republican partisanship over time. Attitudes toward and perceptions of culture wars may thus be strongly related to partisan identification. Our survey supports strong partisan divides in evaluations of culture war issues, but to varying levels across topics.

A substantive majority of Democrats oppose banning critical race theory or books deemed problematic from schools. Likewise, almost all Democratic respondents support gun control. However, more Democrats support assigning transgender athletes to their gender at birth in high school sports.

Republicans generally support restrictions on transgender athletes and the banning of books and higher education teachers who teach critical race theory. More in alignment with Democrats, most Republicans either support current gun control laws or prefer more restrictions. Only 1 in 5 Republicans support less restrictive gun laws.

Independents take a middling position on all of these issues, falling between Democrats and Republicans.

A similar pattern emerges regarding whether transgender rights and racial diversity should receive more attention in public discourse. A plurality of Democrats support more attention to transgender rights, and a majority support more attention to racial diversity. Close to 8 out of 10 Republicans would welcome less attention to transgender rights, and between 5 and 6 out of 10 Republicans would like to see less attention devoted to racial diversity. Again, Independents take a middling position between Democrats and Republicans.

Evaluations of whether certain groups pursue similar goals to the Islamist terrorist organization Hamas are largely related to partisan identification. About 27% of Democrats believe that conservatives have similar goals, the largest share across groups. A plurality of Republicans, by contrast, consider liberals and, to a slightly lesser extent, Black Lives Matter, to pursue similar goals to Hamas. Independents take positions in the middle between Democrats and Republicans, except for conservatives. Across all groups, independents are the least convinced that conservatives have similar goals to Hamas.

Racial perspectives on culture war issues

A key issue within the emergence of culture wars has been racial diversity and inclusion. We explore how racial minorities evaluate culture war issues compared to the white majority of Americans and find substantial perceptual differences on many, but not all, issues based on race.

There is widespread support for stricter gun control across racial groups, and a majority in all groups supports assigning transgender athletes to the gender they were assigned at birth in sports contests. White respondents are more supportive of banning books and teachers from colleges and universities if they promote critical race theory.

Among racial groups, a plurality of respondents would like to see less attention given to transgender rights. In contrast, Black, Hispanic, and Asian respondents would welcome more attention to racial diversity and inclusion, while a plurality of white respondents would prefer less attention.

Asian and Hispanic respondents were more hesitant than white and Black respondents to perceive the goals of any groups as similar to those of Hamas.

Younger Americans more open to transgender rights and racial diversity

Culture war issues may also reflect generational changes in evaluating issues such as transgender rights, education, and racial diversity, as well as how much attention should be paid to those issues. We find strong generational differences in perspectives on culture war issues, with younger respondents tending to be less supportive of measures against CRT and welcoming more attention to transgender rights and racial diversity.

Specifically, older respondents were more supportive of banning books that parents identify as inappropriate and of higher education teachers who teach critical race theory. Similarly, more older Americans agree that transgender athletes should compete in contests according to their gender assigned at birth than younger ones. There are no generational differences in support for stricter gun control.

Younger respondents also believe that transgender rights and racial diversity deserve more attention in the public debate compared to older respondents.

Younger respondents furthermore tend to consider Black Lives Matter, conservatives, and liberals more similar to Hamas than older respondents. There is no relationship between age and evaluations of aligning the goals of the LGBTQ+ community with those of Hamas.

Appendix

About The Polarization Research Lab and our Data

  • The Polarization Research Lab works to understand and strengthen democracy by conducting rigorous science, producing public goods, and training the next generation of scholars. The Lab is led by PIs Sean J. Westwood at Dartmouth College, Yphtach Lelkes at the Annenberg School for Communication at University of Pennsylvania, and Shanto Iyengar at Stanford University.
  • PRL studies the political attitudes of Americans and the behavior of elected officials. Our goals are to:
    • Dispel rumors and show hard data on the democratic attitudes of citizens. We conduct the largest continuous tracking poll on YouGov, collecting 1,000 interviews of Americans a week.
    • Identify the behavior of elected officials that contributes to toxic polarization.
    • Produce publicly available reports and tools to help stakeholders advance responses to toxic polarization that are based in data and evidence. PRL works directly with journalists, democracy practitioners, and policymakers.

PRL Is Supported by

  • The Charles Koch Foundation
  • The Hewlett Foundation
  • The Knight Foundation
  • The Templeton World Charity Foundation
  • New Pluralists

Survey Questions: Culture Wars

  1. Do you support legislation that would strip public college and university faculty of their lifetime tenure if they teach critical race theory?

    • Strongly support
    • Somewhat support
    • Neither support nor oppose
    • Somewhat oppose
    • Strongly oppose
  2. There are many issues facing the country right now. Would you say that the following should be given more attention, less attention or that current attention is about right? (1) Transgender rights; (2) racial diversity and inclusion

    • About right
    • Should be given less attention
    • Should be given more attention
  3. In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict or kept as they are now?

    • More strict
    • Less strict
    • Kept as they are now
  4. Do you support or oppose public schools removing books if they are identified by parents as inappropriate?

    • Strongly support
    • Somewhat support
    • Neither support nor oppose
    • Somewhat oppose
    • Strongly oppose
  5. Do you agree or disagree: transgender athletes should only be allowed to participate in high school sports as the gender they were assigned at birth.

    • Strongly agree
    • Agree
    • Neither agree nor disagree
    • Disagree
    • Strongly disagree
  6. Would you say that the political goals of Hamas are similar or different to the goals of the following groups: (1) The LGBTQ+ movement, (2) Black Lives Matter, (3) Liberals, (4) Conservatives

    • Very similar
    • Similar
    • Different
    • Very Different
    • Don’t know

Additional data on American attitudes is publicly available at PRL’s America’s Political Pulse.


Copyright 2024 Polarization Research Lab