Nuno Silva

This project addressed the optimization of hydro resources’ management. In this work, it was developed a model using a metaheuristic in which the main goal is to find the optimal point of either dammed and pumped water flow that will lead to profit maximization.

This model was tested in two different case studies: in the first one, more simplistic, it was verified if the metaheuristic was able to outline a strategy that takes into account all technical constraints of the problem; the… Exibir mais

This project addressed the optimization of hydro resources’ management. In this work, it was developed a model using a metaheuristic in which the main goal is to find the optimal point of either dammed and pumped water flow that will lead to profit maximization.

This model was tested in two different case studies: in the first one, more simplistic, it was verified if the metaheuristic was able to outline a strategy that takes into account all technical constraints of the problem; the second case study considers a cascade of four hydro plants and it will be verified if it was possible to obtain a more elaborated short time operation plan, for instance, if one of the hydro plants saves water to use it during more profitable hours – larger market prices.
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Provide GDF SUEZ the knowledge and tools required to assess the impact of operating a wind portfolio in market environment, in response to the increasing threat on the regulated remuneration (FIT regime) in Portugal.
The project comprised the development of models (MatLab and Excel VBA) to assess impact on average received price due to participation in market environment:
- Increase knowledge about generation forecast errors;
- Estimate imbalance costs;
- Estimate revenues under… Exibir mais

Provide GDF SUEZ the knowledge and tools required to assess the impact of operating a wind portfolio in market environment, in response to the increasing threat on the regulated remuneration (FIT regime) in Portugal.
The project comprised the development of models (MatLab and Excel VBA) to assess impact on average received price due to participation in market environment:
- Increase knowledge about generation forecast errors;
- Estimate imbalance costs;
- Estimate revenues under pure marker regime;
- Estimate the impact of hourly generation profile.

All of the above was done by simulating all market procedures:
- Delivery of provisional generation schedule at day-ahead market;
- Participation in adjustments market (intraday);
- Settling imbalances. Exibir menos

Portuguese natural gas market:
- Characterization of demand;
- Competition analysis;
- Key aspects of regulatory framework.

Third-party access costs:
- Analysis of tariff’s structure and supply modelling (differentiated per type of consumer and per point of entry – LNG through Sines or through pipeline)

Other administrative constraints (e.g. bureaucratic procedures).

A study was launched to carry a reassessment of wind resource assessment based on actuals (5 years operational life) and increase detail on generation profile of the wind fleet (i.e. monthly and hourly generation profiles), including:
- Calculation of the exceedance probabilities for annual generation and assess the accuracy of the generation targets previously defined;
- Introduction of the correction factor associated with the country/regional wind energy indexes;
- Determination of… Exibir mais

A study was launched to carry a reassessment of wind resource assessment based on actuals (5 years operational life) and increase detail on generation profile of the wind fleet (i.e. monthly and hourly generation profiles), including:
- Calculation of the exceedance probabilities for annual generation and assess the accuracy of the generation targets previously defined;
- Introduction of the correction factor associated with the country/regional wind energy indexes;
- Determination of the monthly and hourly generation profiles for each wind farm;
- Elaboration of Benchmark (country, manufacturer and competition);
- Determination of monthly and hourly generation profile;
- Data mining (generation and wind) from a four year period – using VBA Exibir menos

Observed wind power curve performance often differs from theoretical power curve declared by OEM.
Recurrent cases of both under and overperforming were identified in monthly operational follow-up of power curves’ performance.
An in-depth statistical study was launched comprising the historical analysis of observed power curve performance Vs. OEMer theoretical power curve - total wind onshore portfolio of 214MW (107 wind turbines of 2MW) with >5 years of operational life -… Exibir mais

Observed wind power curve performance often differs from theoretical power curve declared by OEM.
Recurrent cases of both under and overperforming were identified in monthly operational follow-up of power curves’ performance.
An in-depth statistical study was launched comprising the historical analysis of observed power curve performance Vs. OEMer theoretical power curve - total wind onshore portfolio of 214MW (107 wind turbines of 2MW) with >5 years of operational life - including:
- Data compilation, aggregation and harmonization;
- Development / programming of the in-house data-mining model in MatLab and Excel VBA languages;
- Wind power curve modelling, per turbine;
- Data-mining analysis;
- Calculation of financial gains/losses from over- and under-performing cases;
- Trouble shooting for under- and over- performing cases;
- Investigation of correlations of deviations with O&M events / trends;
- Elaboration of final deliverables - full technical report and executive presentation to management). Exibir menos

Assess feasibility for the deployment of wind farm investment opportunity in Nordpool based on advanced market modelling tools, including:
- Identification and analysis of remuneration scheme from two Nordpool target countries;
- Estimation of the revenues of wind project under merchant environment through the use of advanced market-modelling/simulation tools;
- Analysis and proposal of best hedging and trading strategies
o Commercial hedging (PPAs ; derivatives ;… Exibir mais

Assess feasibility for the deployment of wind farm investment opportunity in Nordpool based on advanced market modelling tools, including:
- Identification and analysis of remuneration scheme from two Nordpool target countries;
- Estimation of the revenues of wind project under merchant environment through the use of advanced market-modelling/simulation tools;
- Analysis and proposal of best hedging and trading strategies
o Commercial hedging (PPAs ; derivatives ; aggregators)
o Balancing responsibilities
o Cannibalization effect
- Estimation of future Nordpool prices (2013-2025) through long-term equilibrium models - price evolution scenario modelling. Exibir menos