Climate distance and nearest neighbor approaches to assess climate seed transfer and plant community transitions

Photo Credit

USDA photo by Alexis Neukirch

There is an increasing need to acquire and transfer seed of restoration species to mitigate the impacts from wildfire and other disturbances. Climate change will only increase seed transfer needs and complexity. Provisional seed transfer guidance, an approach based on defining spatial climate variability, is an essential technique to provide assurance that species are transferred within their adaptive genetic niche. While many commercial tree species have species-specific seed transfer guidance based on research of adaptive traits, many other restoration species lack the biological and genetic guidance to transfer seed to meet the criteria of the right seed, in the right place, at the right time. Moreover, seed transfer strategies will become increasingly fraught with uncertainty as we approach mid-century and accelerated climate change. The current implemented provisional seed transfer feature in the Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate Smart Restoration Tool provides users a selection of 16 climate variables to choose from. Users must also determine a transfer limit (e.g., +/- °C). We currently recommend a default, two-climate-variable transfer function. However, each species has differing adaptive strategies and seed transfer will likely need to be tailored to these specificities. Our user feedback from the Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate Smart Restoration Tool request a more intuitive and standardized process of creating provisional seed zones. We are developing a new web tool that will:

1. Standardize provisional seed zone guidance
2. Provide levels of transfer risk based on climate distance thresholds (strong, moderate, and weak)
3. Integrate extensive vegetative plot data from U.S., Canada, and Mexico

The new web tool will provide users with information on seed transfer for current and future climate scenarios. The web tool will also provide vegetative information from plot data within the seed transfer zone for a target site. Users will be able to assess vegetative composition for both current and future seed transfer zones allowing inference into potential vegetative transitions. 

Objectives 

• Capitalize on recently developed climate distance techniques and existing vegetative inventory data (Forest Inventory and Analysis, Bureau of Land Management Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring, Canada, and Mexico) to provide new features to climate smart decision support the Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate Smart Restoration Tool
• Use developed webtools, the Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate Smart Restoration Tool, to leverage accessibility to land and nursery managers for decision support in current and future revegetation efforts.

Expected Project Results 

Outputs

Provisional seed transfer approach: users will be able to produce mapped seed transfer distance for their specified site and climate scenario in the Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate Smart Restoration Tool. Output will also include downloadable tables of species composition found from vegetative plots. If climate futures are applied, output will include a table that compares vegetative composition of plot data within the seed transfer area for current and future climate. The provisional seed transfer approach is applicable to species with limited or no genetic information and therefore has a wide use across all lands.

User training

Researchers will hold virtual and in-person training workshops as these new features are rolled out. These training workshops will include instruction on the use of the webtools and advice on the interpretation of outputs. Workshops will be designed for Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, and other agency personnel involved in restoration planning. 

Expected Outcomes

Our intended outcome from this proposal is to develop a new web tool. 

1. Make the webtools more user-friendly and intuitive through standardization of climate processing
2. Identify seed sources to mitigate climate change through mapping
3. Provide vegetative composition data tables for users to evaluate seed mixes and potential vegetative changes in the future (i.e., mid-century climates). The output from the webtools will inform land managers in making climate-smart seed transfer decisions and help drive climate-smart seed propagation and nursery production through demand.

Metrics of Success

Successful implementation of this approach will ultimately increase nationwide restoration success and climate smart planning of our seed supply. In the short-term, success would be evaluated on the use and adoption of the Seedlot Selection Tool and Climate Smart Restoration Tool in restoration planning. Researchers have the capability to monitor webtool use. These data will be monitored over time and inform our level of outreach to users.

Geographies and High-Risk Landscapes to be Addressed

National

The geographic scope of the project includes the contiguous U.S., Alaska, Canada, and Mexico. The features and tools can be used in all high fire risk landscapes and all land stewardships (Forest Service, State and Private, Tribal, Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, Department of Defense, etc.).