I do not support a counterattack on Iran. Last night was a catastrophe for the Ayatollahs. They lost major face in terms of their display of military power. It was a ridiculous display of impotence. >300 missiles, ballistic missiles and drones – each celebrated with wall art as a demonstration of Iran’s ability burn Israeli cities and crush the Israeli military and they hit a single base and hurt a single child.

This is showing that they *can’t* issue a direct attack. Their allies just got left out to dry.

In business there is a fundamental concept called the ‘sunk cost fallacy.’ The idea is simple: when you assess what to do in the future, make sure not to be blinded by the costs of the past. Those costs have been sunk already, and they can’t figure into your calculus. Otherwise, you’d just be wasting good money in pursuit of what is already lost.

In war, there is an echo of the same concept. We say, “If we don’t do X, then all those men would have died for nothing.” If we held true to the mathematical reality of the sunk cost fallacy it would be smarter to say, “Let’s ignore all those boys who died already, and focus on what we can achieve from this point forward.”

Talk about outrage, I am outraged at the U.S. insistence on labelling the recent bombing that killed humanitarian workers an outrage, not a tragedy, but an outrage. In fact, I am disgusted that the US thinks it needs to condemn Israel for the unintentional killing of humanitarian workers, for other actions that Israel is not even taking (such as slowing humanitarian aid), and for raiding hospitals where Hamas is stationed. The U.S. seems to think that berating Israel will get them to behave themselves or be more careful, as if they were misbehaving children.

In case you haven’t noticed, John Kirby, there’s a war going on.

Let’s set ourselves back a few years, shall we? Israel is established. It is a home for a population of refugees who’ve just been slaughtered on a world-unprecedented scale. They agree to a division of land, but the overwhelming reaction from the Arab population is to try to exterminate them (yes, “Arab.” The label “Palestinian” didn’t exist as a distinct ethnic group at that time). The fighters include Arab populations from villages and cities throughout the land. This was a peoples’ war then – every Jew was a target – man, woman and child.

The initial plan was to overwhelm Jewish settlements and exterminate their populations. A few places and peoples did not engage in this. Most prominent were the Bedouin and Druze who remain a central part of the State today – although as with any nomadic group in a modern society, the Bedouin have challenges. There was also a prominent village on the coast and Abu Ghosh (both populated, interestingly, by generally ‘less-Arab’ populations). Almost everyplace else – and with everyone else – extermination was the goal of the day. Again, it was a peoples’ war – not a war between armies. Jews near Arab villages were and are routinely attacked and massacred. Those who make the mistake of entering are murdered.

Diplomacy was not a bargaining process between multiple sovereign interests but a series of carefully contrived ceremonies in which foreign societies were given the opportunity to affirm their assigned place in the global hierarchy. In keeping with this perspective, in classical China what would now be called “foreign policy” was the province of the Ministry of Rituals, which determined the shades of the tributary relationship, and the Office of Border Affairs, charged with managing relations with nomadic tribes. A Chinese foreign ministry was not established until the mid-nineteenth century, and then perforce to deal with intruders from the West. Even then, officials considered their task the traditional practice of barbarian management, not anything that might be considered Westphalian diplomacy. The new ministry carried the telling title of the “Office for the Management of the Affairs of All Nations,” implying that China was not engaging in interstate diplomacy at all.

–World Order, p. 214

Until the aftermath of October 7^th, 2023, I would have been sure that America, in the balance, was squarely in Israel’s corner and ready and willing to do the right thing to defend the Jewish state. I still feel that America is 70% there, but my confidence has frankly been shaken by the egregious antisemitism displayed on American universities, as well as the unabashed linking of further Abraham Accords progress with Israel’s willingness to negotiate a Palestinian state. (Imagine if, after 9/11, the EU had linked support for America’s war against Afghanistan with political support of the Taliban.) Netanyahu has been strongly against rewarding terrorism with political concessions, and I hope he and Israel continue to stand against it.

We need America to stop using “strategic ambiguity” to walk back her support for allies. When Putin invaded Ukraine, it was clear to me that President Biden’s so-called incompetence was intentional, to capitulate on Afghanistan and Ukraine, partly to reorient toward China, and partly to reconsolidate NATO and make more profitable deals going forward. There was never any intention to help Ukraine “win” against Russia, which is amazingly tragic. The U.S. has been losing on purpose. To a certain extent, Nixon to Carter served a similar purpose. America was on the decline, until mysteriously she resurged in the late 80s, up until the early 2000s.

I am not a lover of Hamas, but they are entirely truthful about one reality. In their highly questionable casualty claims, they make no distinction between civilians and military deaths. The only distinctions are between women, children and men. To Israeli eyes, this seems like it is simply an attempt to hide their own military deaths. After all, they have done so in the past. However, there is a greater truth behind this categorization. For Hamas, every man in a society is a combatant. Women and children are part of the ‘resistance’ as well, although they belong in a separate category. This same logic justifies their attacks on Jews. Every Jewish man is a combatant and clearly – as women fight as well – so is every Jewish woman. Jewish children are just future combatants. Every Jew is a target.