QCP

In the wake of the BTC spot ETFs, the most striking phenomenon has been the size and scale of the Basis trade. This year, selling the Spot-Forward Basis (i.e. buying spot and selling forward simultaneously to lock in the forward premium) has been a guaranteed-return, zero-downside strategy. In the most recent quarter, the Basis spread reached highs of over 40% p.a. Reach out to [email protected] for our latest Q3 Strategy Guide & CIO Commentary.

Nvidia’s stellar earnings report has sent ripples through the crypto markets. Bitcoin has retraced to $59,000, while Ethereum hovers around $2,500 following a classic “sell the news” reaction. Front-end volatility spiked overnight but quickly retreated after the earnings, shedding around 10 vols from its peak. With risk reversals skewed towards Puts, the market remains cautious about potential downside risks. As we approach next week’s non-farm payroll report, we expect market volatility to trend lower as the market positions itself for possible Fed rate cuts. Tonight’s US GDP report may offer little impact on crypto, particularly if it aligns with the narrative of a slowing US economy. Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/gTMqsH9i

At the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Powell signaled that the "time has come" to lower interest rates, aiming to prevent the job market from cooling too much. This concern was amplified by last week's job revision of -800k. With the Fed now seemingly focused on avoiding a job market collapse, the chances of a 50bps rate cut in September have risen. Markets are pricing in four cuts for 2024, despite only three meetings left. US equities are nearing all-time highs, but with declining trading volumes and today's NVDA earnings on the radar, caution is warranted. Powell's readiness to start a rate-cutting cycle could soon lead to increased liquidity and higher risk asset prices. Read our full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gp24qydK

We are excited to support QCP on a new tri-party solution to eliminate the need for clients to withdraw assets from custody for income generation. The solution also reduces counterparty risk and facilitates seamless access to sophisticated investment strategies. “We have created a robust framework that enhances security and efficiency by leveraging battle-tested solutions like Fireblocks. This empowers QCP to offer advanced strategies, benefiting our clients and strengthening the overall ecosystem,” said Darius Sit, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at QCP. Find out more 👇

Beyond the headline figures, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has reached an all-time high as bullish momentum broadens beyond just the Magnificent 7. Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-caps in 2 out of the last 3 rate cut regimes. Given the growing correlation between crypto and small-cap equities, could BTC outperform other risk assets? We answer this in our latest piece: https://lnkd.in/gEQicS_x

BTC finally got the recovery that we've been waiting for. It seems Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was the catalyst it needed to breakout of the 58k-62k range. Rate cuts are confirmed for Sep but there was no indication on how much, so August Payrolls will be critical. A 25bp cut is likely to be bullish, while a 50bp cut could indicate the Fed is taking acute action to prevent the economy from falling flat. Last night's rally was mostly spot driven as funding continues to remain flat. However, we should expect an increase in leverage long positions if the 62k support holds and as we approach the end of summer holidays. On the options desk, we saw increased topside positioning. Around 600x of Monday 62.5k-63k Calls, which are now in-the-money, were bought just before Powell's speech. Even on the backend, bulls continue to pile on to their long bets in Dec and Mar (80k to 85k strikes). So where do we go from here? Read our full analysis: https://lnkd.in/g3nTd-jj

We are excited to announce the launch of our innovative tri-party collateral management solution, designed to reduce counterparty risk and allow access to sophisticated investment strategies. Our solution leverages Fireblocks technology and eliminates the need for clients to withdraw assets from custody for income generation. Leading institutions Artichoke Capital and 5 North will be the first to deploy this tri-party system which offers unparalleled security, efficiency, and control for institutional investors. As a company, we have an unwavering dedication to progress. Our tri-party solution is a testament to this commitment, offering a groundbreaking platform that addresses the evolving needs of our clients and the digital asset industry as a whole. Learn more about how we're redefining the landscape of collateral management: https://lnkd.in/g_9rBszw

Overnight, the downward revision of US non-farm payrolls sparked concerns about the Fed delaying rate cuts, leading to a selloff. However, the July FOMC minutes hinted at a more dovish stance, lifting risk assets, including BTC. Strong buying on Coinbase suggests growing U.S. onshore demand, a positive signal for short-term trends. Read the full analysis to learn how to capture potential upside gains: https://lnkd.in/gvhQekKK

Rumors of a significant downward revision to payroll growth are swirling, potentially indicating a less robust U.S. job market than previously thought. This could lead to a shift in the Fed's stance on interest rates. With market expectations leaning towards rate cuts, exploring alternative investment strategies might be worth considering. Read our full analysis: https://lnkd.in/g_5-CJGF

The ongoing equities rally is fueled by: 1. Momentum traders and trend-followers are reportedly re-leveraging, amplified by August's lower liquidity. 2. Corporate share buybacks have surged to $1.15 trillion this year. Goldman Sachs' trading unit has seen record client demand for dips. What are the potential implications on digital assets? We answer this in our latest piece: https://lnkd.in/gdMHq3vA