(KVP) Kay V.

*This is a structural high-conviction Long on GBPJPY on the back of the US Federal Reserve potentially moving over the next three meetings. As well as subsiding risks on Brexit as well as Japan/Abenomics.

*Fed Hike => High Yield + EM + CMD Sell Off => DM Sell Off
*EMs are not fixed and the correction is now spilling over into DMs
*It still feels like we’d need more blood on the street to warrant going in aggressively into equities (whilst everyone else is coming out)
*I continue to be bearish on the global macro picture for 2016
*Thank god for Martin Luther King Day, as the US will have Mon off for some continued wound licking with the S&P, Nasdaq & Russell all down -8%, -10%… Show more

*Fed Hike => High Yield + EM + CMD Sell Off => DM Sell Off
*EMs are not fixed and the correction is now spilling over into DMs
*It still feels like we’d need more blood on the street to warrant going in aggressively into equities (whilst everyone else is coming out)
*I continue to be bearish on the global macro picture for 2016
*Thank god for Martin Luther King Day, as the US will have Mon off for some continued wound licking with the S&P, Nasdaq & Russell all down -8%, -10% & -11% respectively
*I touch on Volatility, Equities, Currencies, Bonds & Commodities Show less

*Either way you cut it, that’s what you call ‘a print’: US NFP in at 271,000
*DXY closed over key upper channel levels last week and we’ll likely soon be making new highs despite a pullback this week
*Only thing left to forestall a potential Fed hike is a deterioration in US economic data
This could be a negative inflation print or November manufacturing PMI coming in sub 50 (contraction territory)
*Assuming Mario Draghi follows through on December 3 and the Fed shuffles forward… Show more

*Either way you cut it, that’s what you call ‘a print’: US NFP in at 271,000
*DXY closed over key upper channel levels last week and we’ll likely soon be making new highs despite a pullback this week
*Only thing left to forestall a potential Fed hike is a deterioration in US economic data
This could be a negative inflation print or November manufacturing PMI coming in sub 50 (contraction territory)
*Assuming Mario Draghi follows through on December 3 and the Fed shuffles forward (for once) on December 16, do you have these trades on? Show less

*The only certainty from the FOMC statement is it will not move in April
*The short-term disruptions to other currencies v USD will correct very soon
*On AUDUSD - stay short, pick up puts and look into one-touches at 0.7650, 0.7600

*Massive moves while KVP was in HK, with key levels hit or taken out on majors
*The PSI20 looks delicious and we are up 8% from KVP’s bullish EZ equities call
*Stay long USD, EZ, JP, CH equities. Stay short commodities in general, and US

*Captures super bullish +40-60% Euro-zone equities performance for 2015
*Rationale behind the thesis & preference for peripherals like Portugal
*How to play the exposure
*Structural multi-year issue of Japan vs. South Korea

*Fri Mar 6, Another blow up US non-farm number coming up? Run US Macro bears, run!!! Last week's 4Q GDP better than expected at 2.2%a, 2.0%e and thats in a quarter with poor economic data
*European equities will end +30% to +60% for the year, play through peripherals such as Portugal (USD denominated etf PGAL) - which I think could double to triple over next 2-3 years (still -59% from pre GFC highs)
*Stay Long Super High Conviction call on Long USDCHF, up +11% unlevered since Jan 16th… Show more

*Fri Mar 6, Another blow up US non-farm number coming up? Run US Macro bears, run!!! Last week's 4Q GDP better than expected at 2.2%a, 2.0%e and thats in a quarter with poor economic data
*European equities will end +30% to +60% for the year, play through peripherals such as Portugal (USD denominated etf PGAL) - which I think could double to triple over next 2-3 years (still -59% from pre GFC highs)
*Stay Long Super High Conviction call on Long USDCHF, up +11% unlevered since Jan 16th call (post SNB), targeting 1.02/1.05 by E15, above 1.15 E16
*Massive shift down in volatility, picking up options is a lot less expensive than the previous few weeks with SNB, ECB & Greeks worries behind us (for now)
*Central banks this week
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*Highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow trip
*Things have to get a whole lot worse before they get better
*Oil back at $100, would be terrible for Russia but great for Putin’s circle
*Conundrum of bearish sentiment, factual & structural data points being poor & worsening (Assassination of Boris Nemtsov), yet RSX (Russian USD denominated ETF) is up c. +22% YTD & RUB has come off recent highs

Next up: the ECB on Thursday – will Draghi disappoint again? Or will we see the mother of all QEs?

After which: the Greeks go to the elections booths on Sunday. Will the “Exitonians” win?

Post SNB surprise announcement yesterday – after leading the market on as recently as a few weeks ago on – the term “Never trust a Swiss central banker” will soon become mainstream. In this piece, KVP takes a snapshot of what happened, the significance and potential ways to look to play things going forward

January is all about two dates: the 22nd and the 25th, and there are a few ways of expressing either a bullish or bearish stance.

*Calling for a bottom of the Oct 2014 correction
*Lots of cross-asset trades laid out

Blue Chip equity long-short mean reversion trade, going long Allianz vs. AXA post the Bill Gross PIMCO exit shuffle... There are always opportunities in dislocations