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NAB Morning Call
Overnight key economic and market information straight from NAB's team of expert market economists and strategists
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196. Weekend Edition: Australian Equities Doing Nicely Thankyou
21:37||Season 8, Ep. 196Friday 16th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets?
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195. AI caution, higher US spending and Aussie capex wanes
16:10||Season 8, Ep. 195Thursday 29th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo surprises from the US. First, a 100 percent growth from NVIDIA wasn’t enough for investors, who obviously expected more. So, even though their results were considered a beat, their share price is still well down. The other surprise was the sharp upward revision in US spending. Personal spending was revised up from 2.3% to 2.9%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril picks through the numbers. And should we be worried about the fall in Australian Capex spending yesterday? It’s a busy day ahead today, with European CPI, Australian retail sales and Canada’s GDP.194. NVIDIA fails to disappoint
15:10||Season 8, Ep. 194Thursday 29th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets were preoccupied with NVIDIA earnings for much of the week, finishing the session with unwarranted pessimism. As it turns out, earnings beat expectations and forecasts for the next quarter are also above the street’s estimates. As a result, the share price switched from a 2.5% drop at close to a 0.5% gain immediately after the earnings announcement. We wait to see what the broader ramifications are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s a bellwether for how well AI is doing. We also look at yesterday’s Australian CPI from yesterday and look ahead to European inflation numbers, out today and tomorrow.193. Aussie inflation and not much more
13:31||Season 8, Ep. 193Wednesday 28th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s latest monthly inflation number is out today. Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters what’s expected and how pivotal will it be to the RBA, given they seem intent to keep rates on hold until next year. This time tomorrow NVIDIA releases its Q2 earnings, possibly the most significant event in a week devoid of large data releases. Which is why Phil and Skye resort to picking the bones out of a number of second tier releases from the US and Europe from yesterday and overnight. But every number counts.192. Letting it all sink in
13:21||Season 8, Ep. 192Tuesday 27th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn’t been a lot of market movement overnight. What there was saw a slight reversal on positions taken after Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole. Hence, the dollar is back up a little, shares have fallen, and bond yields are up slightly too. It’s lighter trading, of course, at the height of the northern summer and only second tier data to keep us occupied. That’s why NVIDIA’s earnings results on Wednesday (US time) could have an outsized influence on shares. Oil is sharply higher today, because of Libyan politics rather than tensions between Hezbollah and israel. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the day’s market news.191. The time has come
16:20||Season 8, Ep. 191Monday 26th August 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEven though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was said and how market reacted. It’s clear a September cut is coming, with the Fed chair declaring that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, with a focus more on easing in the jobs market than the fears of a reprise in inflation. They also look ahead to a fairly busy week for data, including CPI and retail sales in Australia.190. Weekend Edition: A world of difference - RBNZ v RBA
32:04||Season 8, Ep. 190Friday 16th August 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that were growing reasonably well before the pandemic. Their response in 2020 was similar, with massive fiscal injections and quite severe lockdowns. So, why such a radical difference in the response to inflation post-pandemic? The RBNZ is rapidly cutting rates, whilst the RBA is unlikely to start until next year. Stephen Toplis, Head of research at BNZ Markets in Wellington, says the economies are not the same. Even before the pandemic New Zealand was suffering with labour shortages, pushing wages higher. Now the economy has seen a more significant slowing, in part due to their higher level of rates. As Gareth Spence points out, NAB’s Head of Australian Economics, there is certainly an adjustment going on in Australia, but overall the economy and labour market have been resilient.