The Republican National Convention was set to be pretty straightforward this year.
Donald Trump had become his party’s undisputed leader, without the in-party doubters of previous runs. Even those Republicans who pointedly went for years without speaking to Trump were set to use this convention to project unity behind their nominee. This year, it was the Democrats who had been melting down over their presumed nominee—so much so that Trump, with an unnatural reservedness, had receded to the background to give them the space they needed to destroy themselves.
Then, late Saturday afternoon, a bullet fired from a rooftop outside Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, grazed the ex-president and came about an inch away from taking his life.
The assassination attempt against Trump, which left one rally attendee dead and another seriously injured, is a shocking moment in history that, even a day later, is still hard to fully wrap one’s head around. The image of Trump reaching for his right ear, hitting the deck, and emerging, bloody and disoriented, from a protective layer of Secret Service to raise his fist and repeatedly scream “FIGHT!” is one of the most stunning visuals I’ve ever seen. It will reverberate through American politics, in ways that are hard to predict, for days, months, years.
For the moment, the presidential campaign is in a holding pattern as the principals of U.S. politics cease hostilities. President Joe Biden gave brief remarks Saturday night condemning the act and cut short his weekend in Delaware; he also was able to speak on the phone with “Donald,” as he called him, Saturday night. His campaign has pulled its ads. Former Presidents Obama, Bush, and Clinton, along with congressional leaders of both parties, issued statements offering their sympathies to Trump and his family. Trump’s first posts since the incident have eschewed any calls for vengeance or retribution, instead offering thanks to law enforcement and to those who have reached out.
“In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win,” Trump posted Sunday morning. “I truly love our Country, and love you all, and look forward to speaking to our Great Nation this week from Wisconsin.” He would be arriving in Wisconsin Sunday afternoon as planned.
Now Trump will be entering the RNC not just the race’s polling leader or its certain favorite—even, arguably, the clearest Republican favorite to win a presidential election, at this point in the cycle, of any Republican in the 21st century. His stance, heading into the week, is one of a survivor of deadly political violence. The most recent presidential assassination attempt in the U.S. was made on Ronald Reagan in 1981. In other words, Democratic infighting will not be the biggest story of the week.
How the RNC will change, both from a security standpoint and in regard to its programming, is still an open question—and has likely been the subject of a great many conference calls involving the Republican National Committee and the Trump campaign. Trump’s campaign co-managers, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, did release a memo to staff noting that they were enhancing security for the campaign and calling on staffers to “recognize the political polarization in his heated election.”
“Please do not comment publicly on the occurrence of today,” they wrote. “We condemn all forms of violence, and will not tolerate dangerous rhetoric on social media.” (LaCivita himself had stumbled on this front in the shooting’s aftermath with an incendiary tweet. He deleted it.)
“The RNC Convention will continue as planned in Milwaukee,” Wiles and LaCivita wrote in their memo, “where we will nominate our President to be the brave and fearless nominee of our Party.”
The convention “as planned” featured themes for each day. Monday would be “Make America Wealthy Once Again”; Tuesday is “Make America Safe Once Again”; Wednesday is “Make America Strong Once Again”; and Thursday—you get one guess—is “Make America Great Once Again.” Adherence to themes, though, is only as strong as the planned speakers’ willingness to adhere to them, so expect similar themes around crime, the border, deregulation, tax cuts, and China to be hammered home each day. The only difference now is how Trump’s near-death experience is worked into previously drafted speeches, themes, scheduling, production, lighting—everything. And to what extent it’s used as a cudgel. Partisan politics won’t be on hiatus for long.
We’ll also soon learn the answer to one of the biggest remaining questions of the campaign: Who will be Trump’s running mate?
Each of the leading contenders—Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin—has been given a speaking slot at the convention. (And if you’d like to keep a dark horse in mind, it’s worth observing that the runner-up to Trump in the primary, Nikki Haley, will reportedly be speaking at the convention after all.) According to reports, Trump had been mulling a reality show–style reveal of his pick at the convention on Monday night, should the campaign be able to keep the name under wraps until then. Whether the shock of the assassination attempt mitigates Trump’s otherwise insatiable appetite for elaborate television reveals remains to be seen. Perhaps the campaign will just send out an email.
A convention is more than just speeches, running-mate announcements, a roll call of delegates, and the ratification of a platform that, for all the work and negotiating that is put into it, goes on to collect dust. A convention is a takeover of a major American city by people who seek salvation in politics. It’s prayer breakfasts, protests, traffic, fundraisers, live music, watch parties, overeating, undereating, adrenaline, and alcohol. This RNC in particular was lined up to be a pure celebration for Republicans at having unequivocally obtained the upper hand ahead of November’s election. Beyond the selection of a VP, there weren’t any pressing questions to be answered, a contrast in itself to the many that Democrats would have to answer by the end of their convention in August.
Well, there’s a question for the RNC now: How does a party, all gathered together, digest the near killing of its leader?
