- The Orioles and Yankees are tied atop the AL East.
- The Red Sox are six games off the divisional lead.
- Baltimore and New York have slumped over the last month or so.
Despite still being the top two American League teams in World Series odds, the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have dropped off over the last month or so. Still neck and neck atop the American League East, both teams have dropped below .600, with the Cleveland Guardians now owning a better winning percentage.
The Boston Red Sox, who have just a 0.9% chance of winning the division according to Fangraphs, are six games behind the top two. The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays were sellers at the trade deadline and will be focusing on player development in the remaining months of the season.
Here’s my analysis of the AL East betting landscape packed with baseball odds.
2024 AL East Betting: Best Odds, Props, Futures, Predictions
New York Yankees AL East Odds -188
Have the Yankees finally broken out of their slump? They have won seven of their last eight and remain in the race to win the division despite a woeful few weeks either side of the All-Star break.
Jazz it up. #RepBX pic.twitter.com/EhmEtUjTPQ
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) August 5, 2024
Mark Leiter Jr. adds further depth to the bullpen. The trade for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton’s return from the injured list finally make this look like a balanced offence. Aside from a series with the Guardians, the schedule looks very favourable over the next few weeks.
Baltimore Orioles AL East Odds +150
The Orioles will be hoping splitting a series with the Cleveland Guardians at the weekend is a sign they are getting back on track. Cleveland has long been a good option to pair with Baltimore when making a parlay bet of MLB division winners.
Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Trevor Rogers, Eloy Jiménez, and Zach Eflin was a slightly underwhelming trade deadline haul given the links to Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. There is upside in the Orioles’ hard-throwing bullpen, though, and Eflin projects to be a solid third starter behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.
Their pitching is the biggest threat to defending their AL East crown – only five teams have a worse ERA since the start of last month.
Boston Red Sox AL East Odds +6600
Going 6-9 after the break has hampered the Red Sox’s chances of catching the Orioles and Yankees. It’s also been a major setback in the wild-card race with the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins playing at a high level.
I have been skeptical about the Red Sox all season. Their pitching never seemed particularly sustainable, and I’m not sure James Paxton and a couple of bullpen arms change that projection. They have been streaky all season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall off the pace in the division and wild-card standings over the next month or so. Only six teams have a tough remaining schedule.
Tampa Bay Rays AL East Odds +50000
The Rays have gone 26-19 since June 10. They are surprisingly ahead of the Houston Astros in the wild-card race. Tampa Bay, though, was typically decisive at the trade deadline, choosing to sell when others might have sat on the fence. It was, in my opinion, the right decision to focus on 2025 and beyond.
No team has a tougher remaining schedule than the Rays. There will be experimentation with the lineup the rest of the way. Shane Baz’s return gives the franchise something to be excited about on the pitching side, but it’s unlikely to be enough to make a late postseason push.
Toronto Blue Jays AL East Odds +50000
The Blue Jays are 16-25 since June 16. Clear sellers at the deadline, Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, and Nate Pearson were traded away. There is a risk the Jays are just going through the motions for the rest of this season, and they could yet fall behind the Los Angeles Angels in the American League standings.
Betting interest in the Jays will be minimal for the rest of this season, but individual players’ performances will significantly impact their plans for the offseason.