- Blake Snell has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.
- Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, and several White Sox are available.
- The Mets and Cubs have been surprising buyers.
The MLB trade deadline is upon us. Several significant deals have already been made, including Jazz Chisholm to the New York Yankees and Isaac Paredes to the Chicago Cubs. More are on the way before the deadline, though, with several All-Star calibre players up for grabs.
What are the MLB odds these players are traded? Here are my predictions.
2024 MLB Trade Rumors
Blake Snell to Orioles
Since returning from the injured list earlier this month, Blake Snell has pitched 24 innings and given up two earned runs. He’s allowed only eight hits in that time span and struck out 30 hitters.
Snell has pitched better in the second half throughout his career. He owns a 2.43 career ERA after the break, compared with 3.98 before. That contrast has been exaggerated further this year after his disrupted preparation for the campaign due to a messy free agency.
The San Francisco Giants swept the Colorado Rockies over the weekend and sit just 3.5 games off the wild-card spot. Snell, Alex Cobb, and Robbie Ray getting healthy gives the Giants some hope in the second half, but there has reportedly been trade interest in the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
Multiple teams have shown interest in Snell, who has a $30 million player option for 2025. That option complicates his trade market – I suspect teams will not be willing to give up as much as the Giants want. The Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, and Milwaukee Brewers are all logical landing spots if Snell is available.
Tarik Skubal to Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, and New York Yankees have all been linked with Tarik Skubal. The clear AL Cy Young odds favourite, Skubal has a sky-high asking price.
His expected metrics are phenomenal across the board. He’s under team control until after the 2026 season, and the Detroit Tigers are under no pressure to make a trade as they near the end of their rebuild. Detroit will need a blockbuster offer to go ahead with a deal, and I remain skeptical that the Orioles or Dodgers will pull the trigger if it means giving up multiple of their top prospects.
Tarik Skubal's first 20 starts are putting him amongst some of the best in @Tigers history 👀
(MLB x @SageUSAmerica) pic.twitter.com/QxfwOmtaAw
— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2024
It would be out-of-character for the Braves to make a trade of this cost, even though their rotation is in dire need of reinforcements after injuries to Max Fried and Reynaldo López.
Yusei Kikuchi to Astros
Top of their division and having gone 43-26 since a 12-24 start to the season, the Houston Astros are definite buyers ahead of the trade deadline. Jon Heyman reported the Astros are targeting Yusei Kikuchi and Jack Flaherty – Houston does not have the prospect capital to pursue Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal.
Kikuchi’s numbers have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is a shade under seven in July. He’s striking out over 26% of hitters, though, and I suspect the Astros would get better results from the lefty than the Toronto Blue Jays have been able to.
Flaherty’s numbers are much better across the board, including a 32% strikeout rate. More teams are likely to be interested, which could see the Astros get outbid for the Detroit Tigers right-hander. I am unsure if Houston would be willing to give up one of their top three prospects for Flaherty, given the uncertainty the franchise faces with Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, and Ryan Pressly likely to become free agents this winter.
Luis Robert Jr. to Braves
Jon Heyman has reported the Braves have been in contact with the Chicago White Sox. Atlanta has a major need in the outfield with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II on the 60-day injured list. Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall have been very unproductive at the plate.
A package built around Hurston Waldrep and Nacho Alvarez Jr. could be enough to get a deal done. Robert is having a down year at the plate, but he’s still got elite speed and ranks above average defensively in centre field. He’s also posted the best walk rate of his career with an exceptional 15.1% barrel rate.
Tanner Scott to Yankees
Jim Bowden reported the Miami Marlins are close to trading Tanner Scott. Scott has repeatedly been linked with the New York Yankees. After flipping Chisholm and A.J. Puk, the Marlins are in a full-on teardown. They are on course to lose 100+ games for the third time since 2012.
Scott hasn’t been as good as his 1.18 ERA suggests, but his underlying numbers are still very strong. He’s in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and has a whiff rate of 43.1% on his slider.
Every contender would be improved by adding Scott, but the Yankees, Mets, and Boston Red Sox would all be good fits.
Garrett Crochet to NL West
Mentioned as one of my best baseball bets this season several months ago, Garrett Crochet is now a man in demand as the deadline nears. The San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Baltimore Orioles have all been consistently linked with the Chicago White Sox southpaw.
Crochet has elite underlying metrics and could be the best player dealt before the deadline. He’s under club control until the 2026-27 offseason, and the ChiSox should be looking to cash in as soon as possible. Entering a deep rebuild, the South Siders could look to get multiple elite prospects back in a Crochet trade. Baltimore’s Coby Mayo or Los Angeles’ Dalton Rushing would be good centrepieces.
Josh Bell to Yankees
The Miami Marlins placed Josh Bell on waivers over the weekend. With Blue Jays trade rumors around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. quietening down and Cody Bellinger unlikely to be dealt, Bell could be the best first baseman available.
Ben Rice has posted a .443 OPS over the last two weeks – the Yankees remain in desperate need of a productive first baseman. The Astros’ first baseman, Jon Singleton, hasn’t been much better over that period. The two AL powerhouses could end up going head-to-head for Bell, who has been scorching hot with five homers since the All-Star break.
Bell is a free agent at season’s end, but his $16.5 million salary could put off some executives, given the luxury tax implications. His expected metrics are also pretty mediocre this year, so it’ll be interesting to see if teams buy into his production over the last week or so.