How to Win the Conn Smythe Trophy: The Statistical & Narrative Profiles Needed for NHL’s Playoff MVP

So you want to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, given to the NHL's playoff MVP? Or, more likely if you're here, do you want to correctly bet the winner?

The Conn Smythe is a unique futures market because it goes to the MVP of the entire postseason, not just the Stanley Cup Final. That's unlike MLB, NBA and NFL, which award their MVPs only for the final game/series.

Here's the checklist:

• Be on the winning team. Every Conn Smythe winner since 2004 has won the Cup, and a player from the losing team has won only four times in the 58 years it has been given out.
• Forwards win just over 50% of the time, both in the last 20 years and all-time. Defensemen and goalies split the other half.
• Come close to leading your team in points or goals. You don't have to do both. You also don't have to lead your team in points or goals. As long as you're in the top three, other factors can tip the scales like clutch goals, great two-way play, or an elite Stanley Cup Final.
• If you're a defenseman, you have to score a lot of points for a defenseman, play a great two-way game, and play a ton of minutes in all situations.
• If you're a goalie, you need a good first three series, and a really great Stanley Cup Final.

There's no precise pattern you can apply when betting awards – it's part statistical, part narrative, and part timing. That's what makes them so fun. We've done similar breakdowns for NFL Rookie of the Year, NFL MVP, Comeback Player of the Year and more.

Previous Winners

The Conn Smythe is mostly a superstar's award. Niedermayer, Zetterberg, Malkin, Toews, Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin, Hedman, Makar. They're all Hall of Famers, or on their way.

It's also been an award for favorites. Since 2014, when SportsOddsHistory got Conn Smythe data, the winners have mostly been less than 5-1 entering the Stanley Cup Final. (If you're betting before the playoffs, you're obviously going to get much better prices).

If you're not a superstar, you need to score a bunch of clutch goals (like Justin Williams in 2014 and Jonathan Marchessault in 2023) or be an elite goalie who plays lights out in the Stanley Cup Final.

Positional Breakdown

The Conn Smythe goes to forwards about half the time.

Since the NHL returned from the 2004-05 lockout, it's been 10 forwards, four defensemen and four goalies. Those are mostly in line with the all-time averages, though goalies used to win it a little more often.

Statistical Profile

What kind of stats do you need to post?

You do not need to lead your team in both goals and points. Usually just one. And you do need to be top three on your team in points, most of the time.

The good news is that since the Conn Smythe winner is always on the winning team, you don't need to lead the series or playoffs in points. Even if Connor McDavid finished 15 points clear of the closest Panther, but Florida wins the series, it likely won't matter. A Panther will still win.

Forwards

The forwards who have won are an interesting mix of goalscorers and playmakers, though I'd argue you need some of both.

Because of the secondary assist in hockey, players will almost always have more assists than goals. But it seems like you generally need 8+ goals and 20+ points.

Defensemen

For defensemen to win, I believe three things have to be true:

• They have to score a lot of points for a defenseman, but they don't have to lead the series in scoring.
• They must be great both offensively and defensively.
• They must play a ton of minutes in all situations.

Here's what the winners did. Three of four fit this profile:

1. Makar (2022): Led the Avalanche in points and played 28+ minutes per game.
2. Hedman (2020): Third on Tampa in points, played 27+ minutes per game.
3. Keith (2015): Tied second in points for Chicago, played 29+ minutes per game.
4. Niedermayer (2007): He's the outlier here with only 11 points in the playoffs and two points in the Stanley Cup Finals. I don't really have an explanation, other than that Anaheim was a complete team without a single superstar, and Niedermayer played 30 minutes a night. But he wasn't even the best defenseman on his team in that run (Chris Pronger).

Goalies

Before researching this, I assumed a winning goalie's team had to be the underdog entering the series. Goalie steals an early game, then plays lights out in Game 7, and they're the Conn Smythe winner.

But only one of four goalies to win since the lockout (Boston/Tim Thomas in 2011) was priced as an underdog entering the Stanley Cup Final. Thomas was also the only one to make a ton of saves – Vasilevskiy and Quick had much lighter workloads than Thomas, who made 30+ saves in 6/7 games and 37 saves in a Game 7 shutout in Vancouver.

In the small sample, the only really pattern is that the goalie has to have a great last series – Thomas, Vasilevskiy and Quick all posted save percentages north of .940 and gave up fewer than 1.5 goals per game in the Stanley Cup Final. Cam Ward had pretty average numbers, strangely enough, but did play well in Game 7.

How Does the Voting Work?

The Professional Hockey Writers Association gives out the award. There are only 18 voters – mostly national media, with a few local reporters for each team sprinkled in. Each voter puts three players on their ballot with 5 points to first, 3 to second and 1 to third.

Since the PHWA started releasing the full ballots in 2018, the voting hasn't been particularly close, save for 2020, when Tampa's Hedman just edged out teammate Brayden Point. In every other year, the winner has gotten at least 13 of the 18 first-place votes.

Do You Need to Have a Great Final & Playoffs? Or Just One?

This is probably the most important question because it influences the available players you'd consider betting. If you only need a good final, you could get a long-shot winner out of nowhere.

Based on the last 20 years, two things are true:

• You can't have just a great Stanley Cup Final and a bad first three rounds, because you have to come close to leading your team in points.
• But you can have a great first three rounds and an average Stanley Cup Final and still win, depending on what your teammates do.

Most winners put up about a point per game in the final, but they entered the series toward the top of their team in points anyway. Given how hockey scoring works, that makes sense – your best players are more likely to score in all rounds of the postseason.

The only recent player I can find who was behind the eight-ball entering the Stanley Cup Final and had by far his best series in the Final to secure the Conn Smythe was Blues center Ryan O'Reilly, who scored five goals (all in Games 4-7) against Boston in 2019.

Do You Need a Narrative?

In most cases, I don't think narrative plays much of a factor in the Conn Smythe like it does for something like NFL Comeback Player of the Year. It's more of a stats award.

I won't pretend to remember all the narratives of the last 20 NHL playoffs and how the Conn Smythe winner fit into them, but it seems like the players who didn't lead in points or goals were mostly excellent two-way players, or perceived as "clutch."

• Scott Niedermayer (two-way)
• Duncan Keith (two-way)
• Justin Williams (clutch)
• Sidney Crosby (two-way)
• Ryan O'Reilly (two-way, scored at least once in Games 4-7)
• Victor Hedman (two-way)

The way defensive play in the NHL is talked about has really evolved in the last few seasons, and hockey writers often fancy themselves as analytical. That does open the door for a defenseman like Gustav Forsling at 50-1 to win if Florida can shut down Edmonton's offensive weapons. But in that scenario, Bobrovsky is also a good candidate. It's still hard to quantify and measure Forsling's defensive impact, even if we can observe that it's great.

Do We Have Any Intel from This Year's Voters?

We do — ESPN surveyed 24 NHL writers and Forsling is the big standout. I bet a lot of the media members they surveyed will be real voters, too. They asked the writers to cast a first, second and third place vote to mimic the actual ballots. Their rankings based on those votes:

1. Connor McDavid (+200)
2. Aleksander Barkov (+400)
3. Sergei Bobrovsky (+450)
4. Leon Draisaitl (+950)
5. Gustav Forsling (+9500)
6. Evan Bouchard (+1100)
7. Matthew Tkachuk (+550)
8. Zach Hyman (+10000)
9. Carter Verhaeghe (+2200)
10. Stuart Skinner (+20000)

This confirms that the voters already massively respect Forsling and his defensive efforts through the first three rounds, and it makes him a great bet at 95-1 at FanDuel.

The 2024 Breakdown

So what principles can we apply to the 2024 Conn Smythe race? We know you need to lead in goals or points, or come pretty darn close. That eliminates most of the bottom of the board. We also know you have to be on the winning team, so if you really like the Panthers, you can just eliminate everyone on the Oilers.

Connor McDavid is a rightful favorite, as are the two Panthers skaters behind him. Barkov and Tkachuk have the best chance to lead Florida in points. Bobrovsky is an interesting case because his numbers – .908 save percentage and 2.20 goals against average – aren't elite, but the perception is that he's been very good in these playoffs (and I'd agree).

Although I don't think narrative is super important here, I did mark players I believe could have a good one by the end of the series — the favorites are obvious, but as I'll detail below, guys like Gus Forsling, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman could all be big talking points among media/voters for different reasons.

A few interesting observations:

Leon Draisaitl (+950): I'm not sure why Draisaitl is priced so far behind McDavid. He's three points behind McDavid and has five more goals. I bet him at +950.

Evan Bouchard (+1100): On the other hand, I don't like Bouchard at this price. He's close to both Draisaitl and McDavid in points, but it's unlikely he passes either given how the Oilers score. He'd have to score some big goals late in the series; given that someone like Sam Reinhart or Carter Verhaeghe basically have to do the same, I'd rather take a shot at their prices.

Carter Verhaeghe (+2200): Last year, Marchessault ended up with two fewer points than Jack Eichel in the playoffs and seven more goals (and a bunch of clutch goals, as well) en route to the Conn Smythe. Eichel is a better all-around player – and didn't win. I don't see how this is much different – Verhaeghe is on track to lead Florida in goals, and he's just two points behind Tkachuk.

Gustav Forsling (+5000): There's been a ton of hype around Forsling this postseason and rightfully so. He embodies everything the Panthers do so well on defense: stickwork, positioning, speed. Because Florida won't have a 30+ point player and their postseason run has been built around solid team defense, Forsling has an outside chance if they shut down Edmonton. But in that case, I think Bobrovsky is a more likely winner.

Sam Reinhart (+7500): Reinhart could lead Florida in goals, but he doesn't have any real chance to catch Barkov or Tkachuk in points. He'd have to score 5+ goals in this series, including a few pivotal ones late in the series. At 75-1, I don't hate it.

Zach Hyman (+10000): Given that McDavid will be assisting on most of Hyman's goals, he has no chance to make up ground in points. His only chance is if he sets the record for goals in a single postseason at 20, which he'd need six in this series to reach. That could give him the narrative bump he needs to top McDavid or Draisaitl in the event the Oilers win the Cup. Even then, it's not a guarantee.

Stuart Skinner (+20000): Skinner has a sub-.900 save percentage so he'd really have to play a miraculous final in which Edmonton's superstars get shut down on offense, but the Oilers still win the series.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (+50000): RNH has the narrative going for him – two-way player who's been in Edmonton forever and has stuck it out – and he's got 20 points already. But he'll likely finish the series 10+ points behind McDavid and Draisaitl since he's not scoring much without those two also getting on the scoresheet. He'd need to score two OT goals or something. It's one of those "he should be more like 100-1, not 500-1, but he won't win either way" kind of bets.

The Conn Smythe Trophy candidates I bet:

1. Leon Draisaitl +950 (DraftKings)
2. Carter Verhaeghe +2500 (FanDuel)
3. Sam Reinhart + 7500 (DraftKings)
4. Gus Forsling +9500 (FanDuel)
5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins +50000 (DraftKings)