2024 Men’s Olympics Golf Best Bets & Expert Picks
Via Getty Images/Action Network Design. Pictured (left to right): Tom Kim of South Korea and Shubhankar Sharma of India.
The golf world focuses in on Paris for the 2024 Men's Olympics Golf Competition as 60 golfers will compete for the gold, silver and bronze medals this week at Le Golf National.
Xander Schauffele, the reigning gold medal winner from the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, is in the field this week as one of four golfers representing Team USA, along with Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark.
Let's get into our 2024 Men's Olympics Golf best bets as 20 of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking will clash this week with a gold medal on the line. World class talent from the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, DP World Tour and more tours are all in the field for this week's 2024 Paris Olympics.
Spencer Aguiar, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have their expert picks ready after crunching the Men's Olympics Golf odds as American Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +420 odds to win.
The Albatross Course at Le Golf National was designed by Hubert Chesneau and Robert von Hagge in 1990 and was renovated in 2015 by European Golf Design. The golf course hosting the 2024 Paris Olympics measures 7,174 yards as a par-71 with water in play on 10 of the 18 holes. The average green size is large at 6,458 to 8,611 square feet and has greens that are a mix of Poa and creeping bentgrass.
The fairways, collars and approaches are all a mix of ryegrass and fescue. The rough is the same mix of ryegrass and fescue and features three different cuts at 2.5 inches, 3.3 inches and 4.7 inches, with the longer rough being farther away from the edge of the fairway to provide a stiffer penalty for more inaccurate drives. Le Golf National hosts the Open de France annually on the DP World Tour and also hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup.
Here's everything you need to know about men's golf at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games as our golf betting experts break down their 2024 Men's Olympics Golf best bets & expert picks.
2024 Men's Olympics Golf Best Bets
Spencer Aguiar: Abraham Ancer -105 over Carlos Ortiz (Caesars)
If you told me one of these two LIV Golf players won the gold medal, I would likely think Carlos Ortiz would be the victor. However, matchups are all about exploiting your volatility edges, which is relevant here when comparing one of the more boom-or-bust candidates in Ortiz to the much safer Abraham Ancer.
Le Golf National has a ton of corollary trends to Florida courses on the schedule. Think TPC Sawgrass when it comes to the expected output of a course that will accentuate water and mitigate the effectiveness of bomb-and-gouge golf.
When we dive into how both Mexican golfers have done at similar tracks, it translated into a night-and-day output of Ancer being a cut-maker who often found himself in the top 30, with Ortiz struggling to succeed because of his shaky Total Driving on similar courses.
I know the recent form is going to push some in Ortiz's direction because he has beaten Ancer in three of four events on LIV Golf, but let's not forget that how someone fits a course matters above any other scenario.
For more on my favorite DFS plays to make and golfers to fade, check out my Data-Driven DFS betting preview for the Paris Olympics.
Matt Gannon: Shubhankar Sharma Top Indian -200 (bet365)
Shubhankar Sharma enters the Olympics in very solid form. The golfer from India is by no means scared of the moment and is coming off of a tie for 19th at The Open Championship.
He has made eight cuts in a row while playing on the DP World Tour and has made two of three cuts in his career at Le Golf National. His game is fueled around strong iron play and putting, which is a great formula for this course.
The only other golfer in this market, Gaganjeet Bhullar, is extremely unproven and may be in the mix to finish dead last. Lay the juice at -350 or better and collect it Sunday afternoon.
Tony Sartori: Tom Kim to Win the Gold Medal +2800 (DraftKings)
This number isn't short enough for a golfer of Tom Kim’s ceiling. The 22-year-old South Korean enters this week in good form after making the weekend in 11 of his past 13 PGA Tour events, with a pair of top-five finishes over that stretch.
That includes his runner-up performance at the Travelers Championship, where he took Scottie Scheffler to a playoff in what was a brilliant outing against a PGA Tour Signature Event field that is even tougher than this week's Olympics field.
Le Golf National profiles nicely for Kim as he has gained strokes approaching the green in eight of his past 13 tournaments. Despite his lack of distance off the tee, Kim has the driving accuracy and world class iron play to win this week as longer and less accurate drivers may run into issues at Le Golf National.
He has also been more accurate off the tee than the field average in 11 of those 13 tournaments. Since he profiles so well for this venue, it should not be shocking that Kim finished in a tie for sixth at Le Golf National in 2023 at the Open de France.
2024 Men's Olympics Golf Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Aguiar: Jon Rahm +1100
- Gannon: Collin Morikawa +1100
- Sartori: Ludvig Åberg +1300
Jon Rahm enters with momentum after winning LIV UK over the weekend and remains a truly world class talent who is finally putting the pieces together after many deemed 2024 to be a lost season for him after some disappointing major championship results.
Mid-Tier Golfer to Back
- Aguiar: Viktor Hovland +3300
- Gannon: Viktor Hovland +3300
- Sartori: Tom Kim +2800
Viktor Hovland's odds have drifted this season after a swing change, but the FedExCup champion has shown that he can win elite events. His total driving and sky-high upside with his irons make him a threat to win the gold medal this week.
Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Shubhankar Sharma 400-1
- Gannon: Nicolai Højgaard 75-1
- Sartori: Abraham Ancer 90-1
Shubhankar Sharma enters with momentum after making the cut in eight straight tournaments, including a tie for 19th at the British Open. He also finished in the top 40 at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he led the field by a significant margin in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.
Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
- Gannon: Alex Noren 28-1
- Sartori: Tommy Fleetwood 20-1
Hideki Matsuyama was part of the seven-way playoff for the bronze medal in the past Tokyo Olympics where C.T. Pan prevailed over him along with Collin Morikawa, Mito Pereira, Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey and Juan Sebastian Munoz Amaya.
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Victor Perez 110-1
- Gannon: Rory McIlroy 8-1
- Sartori: Guido Migliozzi 80-1
Your Betting Strategy for Men's Olympics Golf
Aguiar: Most PGA Tour golf tournaments along with the four major championships present a very straightforward blueprint of what is being asked. Golfers play the opening two rounds to avoid a missed cut then get more or less aggressive from there on the weekend with the final few factors of trying to compete for a win versus attempting to get a better payday.
However, I am curious to see how players are going to attack Le Golf National's plodder's setup for this week's Olympic golf tournament since anything that doesn't land inside the top three after four rounds is a straight-up loss when competing for a medal.
There will likely be some significant risks taken by those who find themselves behind after the opening round. There are a lot of positives and negatives that can come from that viewpoint, but I essentially built a model that looked for a distinction of how someone played when given a corollary track that is going to generate double bogeys in bunches because of the water.
I also factored in how well a golfer could create opportunities when combining finding a more significant percentage of fairways, using short iron prowess to create birdie looks and the ability to make putts from 5-15 feet.
Gannon: Precision and patience is the name of the game around Le Golf National on the world stage this week at the Olympic men's golf tournament. Since I bet the DP World Tour every year, I am fairly familiar with this golf course.
At this time of the year, the fairways will be a tad firmer than they have been in past versions of the French Open (Open de France). Consequently, this will make the fairways play more narrow and bring more penalty areas into play.
Playing from the fairway at a high rate is a must. From there, golfers need to be very precise into the greens. TPC Sawgrass, which hosts THE PLAYERS Championship, is a very good comp course in my opinion, which is why I am almost certain Scottie Scheffler takes home gold. I cannot stomach to bet the American at +330, but I believe he is a lock for a top-five finish.
Sartori: The Albatros Course at Le Golf National hosts golf at the Olympics this year in Paris for both the men's and women's competitions. Le Golf National will play as a par-71, 7,174-yard track for the men, and it has seen plenty of top-level talent walk its grounds.
Not only does this venue host the Open de France every year on the European Tour, but it also hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup. Le Golf National is a difficult course that rewards accuracy off the tee and on approach, due to the tight fairways and abundance of links-style bunkers and water hazards.
Golfers also need to stick their approach shots close on these large greens that run fast because tight approach shots can eliminate the many two-to-three putts on these vast undulating greens at the former Ryder Cup layout.
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