Anthony Richardson vs. Will Levis: Which QB is worth the risk in 2023 NFL Draft?

Drafting a quarterback is like playing the lottery. When picking one in the first round of the NFL Draft, teams are looking for the ever-elusive elite quarterback. There are more competent NFL quarterbacks than ever, but it’s difficult to keep up with the teams with elite signal callers by having just competency at the position. Drafting a more developed quarterback without high-level physical traits is becoming a less attractive bet.

This draft cycle, Anthony Richardson from Florida and Will Levis from Kentucky will test how much risk teams are willing to assume in their pursuit of an elite quarterback. Both quarterbacks have eye-popping traits but lack the production of a top prospect, yet both will likely be drafted in the top 10. Where they rank can vary depending on the eye of the beholder, so let’s look at how each prospect differs to decide which one is a more worthy bet.

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Richardson’s traits

Richardson has elite arm strength. He can throw with distance and velocity with ease, and he has a quick release. When he missed, he usually missed high, sometimes due to miscommunications with his receivers on option routes. Missing occasionally might be a part of his game, but he can cut down on them with improved footwork and timing, which can be fixed with coaching.

South Carolina, 12:10 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-6

In this clip, Richardson senses penetration up front and side steps even though the threat was eventually blocked. He side-stepped unnecessarily and didn’t set his back foot perpendicular to where his target was running. The side of his foot pointed upfield when it needed to be angled toward the sideline.

When his feet are right, Richardson can make throws into tight windows on ropes or with touch. The offense he ran in Florida didn’t feature a lot of screens or run/pass options that could have boosted his completion percentage. Additionally, his receivers didn’t get open consistently and didn’t track passes well. Still, it’s always concerning when a quarterback has to greatly improve his accuracy.

Perhaps the most encouraging part of Richardson’s game is his resolve to hang and maneuver in a tight pocket. His pocket movements and reactions aren’t always efficient, and sometimes he puts himself in front of pressure unnecessarily with too much movement, but given his experience level, his pocket movement is an encouraging sign. He can learn to manage the pocket more efficiently, but it’s hard to learn the willingness to stay in and maneuver inside a tight pocket. He’s also willing to step up and make throws while getting hit.

Tennessee, 13:20 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10

On this play-action protection, Florida’s tight end had to block an edge rusher and was quickly beaten. Richardson evaded him with a quick jump up into the pocket and had to navigate through additional pressure. When he was in the clear, he got his eyes up and quickly found an open receiver. Throwing off-platform, he got the ball over the cornerback for an explosive pass play.

Anthony Richardson RAS so far.

And there it is.https://t.co/g6dAq3ALm4 #RAS pic.twitter.com/p8isZWrHp4

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 4, 2023

Richardson is a big-play threat with the ball in his hands, and he just had one of the most impressive combines ever. He’s a slashing runner who doesn’t waste time dancing. He’ll lower his shoulder, deliver hits and run through arm tackles. In the NFL, you want to see him take fewer hits, but he has the speed to create room to slide, fall or get out of bounds, which is a big distinction from other quarterbacks who are physical runners. His ability to be a threat in the option run game will give him a floor while he learns the intricacies of passing. When he feels an opening or doesn’t have a clear picture, he’ll take off, but when he drops back, he makes a concerted effort to exhaust his reads and stay in the pocket.

Why Richardson is a gamble

Richardson’s lack of production was due to his inexperience and the offense he ran. I wouldn’t call the Florida offense pro-style, but it featured a lot more dropback and play-action concepts than an average college spread offense — 53 percent of his passes traveled at least 10 air yards. As a result, there weren’t a lot of “easy button” throws for Richardson to pad his stats with, and the Gators didn’t fully utilize Richardson’s running ability with their option package. They called a lot of their core concepts over and over again — possibly because of Richardson’s inexperience — so the Florida offense was somewhat predictable. His numbers weren’t great, but playing in this system might have helped his long-term development by giving him more dropback reps.

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Pre-snap, Richardson makes good reads and knows where to look and go. He also consistently sniffs out blitzes and adjusts his protection, though I didn’t see him get to his hot routes or sight adjustments often on film, which might partially be a function of the offense. Post-snap, Richardson can struggle to adjust against coverage disguises. His interceptions are not often purposeful throws into traffic but rather products of reading the defense incorrectly, which could improve with experience.

Where Richardson needs to improve — and are those issues fixable?

Florida State, 9:32 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10

This clip was from Richardson’s last college game. Florida State’s weakside safety tried to bait Richardson into throwing the vertical to the weak side. Before the snap, he dropped down like he was going to play low. After the snap, he faked like he was going to rotate to the middle of the field before spinning back to the weak side. Richardson saw the safety’s final drop and knew the seam would be open to the opposite side. His feet were calm, and he threw a perfect pass for a touchdown.

Overall, Richardson has the tools to be an elite quarterback on par with the top playmaking quarterbacks in the NFL. There are a lot more translatable skills on film than I thought before watching his tape. He consistently gets through multiple progressions and wants to stay in the pocket.

Levis’ traits

Levis can throw with great distance, but more importantly, he can make throws with elite velocity. He throws with a smooth stroke and a quick release. He throws with good accuracy to all levels of the field and can make throws off the platform and under pressure. His career completion rate (64.9 percent) doesn’t reflect how accurate he is because his receivers struggled to create separation at times, especially against strong competition. His footwork reflects his pro-style coaching, as he consistently throws from a wide base. His overall arm talent is on par with the elite NFL quarterbacks.

Tennessee in 2021, 3:03 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10

On this throw against man-to-man coverage, Levis gets just enough touch on the ball to get it over the trailing corner but throws it with enough zip that other defenders don’t have time to help on the pass. Some strong-armed quarterbacks can struggle with touch, but Levis has excellent control.

As a runner, he has a good burst and is powerful. He can be useful in an option attack, but his athleticism translates to the NFL more as a scrambler. He has the strength and balance to rip away from pass rushers and the straight-line speed to make big plays in the open field.

Why Levis is a gamble

Levis couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State and had to transfer to Kentucky to start, and he has never had high-level production. His most productive season came in 2021, when he threw for 24 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in 13 games as a junior. He had his best season in yards per attempt (8.3) as a senior with a worse supporting cast. A lot of struggles could be attributed to his poor protection and lack of talent at wide receiver. His offensive line had constant breakdowns in protection, and his receivers weren’t able to get open, struggling to execute even basic pick plays. It is concerning to draft a quarterback high without seeing consistent production, but it was obvious on film that the Kentucky offense was often overmatched.

Where Levis needs to improve — and are those issues fixable?

Levis makes great rhythm throws, meaning first-read throws, but he rarely goes through more than two reads in a play. This could be a result of his bad protection and doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but there aren’t many examples of him doing it on film. He seems to prefer high/low reads. He reads them out quickly and throws them with anticipation. When he knows where he’s going with the ball pre-snap, he’s fine, but he has trouble processing when the defense changes the picture post-snap.

Tennessee in 2021, 6:42 remaining in the third quarter, second-and-10

On this play, Levis wanted to throw a speed out against off coverage. As the ball was snapped, the free safety in the middle of the field bailed to play a deep half. This was a rhythm throw, so Levis didn’t see the safety, but if he had, he would have known the corner was going to play the out route aggressively. The corner didn’t drop, was flat-footed and jumped the pass. Levis didn’t see the safety rotation or the corner’s body language and threw a pick six.

Florida, 11:50 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-11

This clip is from the 2022 season. The defense got out of its disguise before the ball was snapped and dropped into a Tampa 2 zone. Levis wanted to go to the curl/flat side, but it’s not a good combination against this type of coverage because there are too many underneath defenders. Levis tried to stick with the curl, hoping the receiver could find space to open up, but Levis’ eyes attracted more defenders. If Levis had moved off that read to the seam in the middle of the field, he might have had a touchdown, but instead he threw to a covered curl route. He had a clean pocket and plenty of time to move to another read.

Levis is willing to stand in tight pockets and take hits while making throws, but he doesn’t manipulate and navigate within the pocket much and is more likely to take off running if he sees space. He can get rattled early in games when facing pressure and run himself into trouble.

Florida, 12:06 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10

Here, Levis has a clean pocket, but instead of remaining calm and staying in it, he tries to exploit a rush lane, only for it to close up. The ability to feel the rush and move subtly to buy time within the pocket is innate. It’s hard to see Levis developing into a high-level pocket manipulator.

So, who’s worth the risk?

I’d bet on Richardson. He’s younger — he’ll be 22 by Week 1, while Levis will be 24 — and Richardson’s biggest flaws seem to be correctable with more coaching and experience.

The strides Richardson will have to make to reach his potential are not for the risk-averse, but quarterbacks with Richardson’s physical tools don’t come around often, and his floor isn’t as low as some perceive. Richardson’s explosive ability as a runner means the team that drafts him can build an option-heavy attack with him — something Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson have proved can be successful — and Richardson has the arm talent to connect on schemed-up throws off play action.

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Though I prefer Richardson, Levis isn’t a bad consolation prize. He has the tools to develop into a top-tier quarterback, with a rare combination of elite arm talent and good athleticism. Others might see Richarson’s long development curve as a no-go in the top 10, but it seems like the growing consensus is that he’s worth that type of risk.

As one general manager told The Athletic’s Mike Sando, “I like Anthony Richardson better than Levis, and I don’t think I’m the only GM who feels this way.”

(Top illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: James Gilbert, Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)