𝗜𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗫 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝗶 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 and Stock Market Recovery in H2 2024, Supported by Global Economic Synchronized Recovery, Interest Rate Cuts in Developed Economies, and Accelerated Thai Budget Disbursement. Thai Economy Expected to Grow by 2.5%, SET Index Targeted at 1,500 Points by End of 2024
InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., the financial investment flagship of the SCBX Group, forecasts a synchronized global economic recovery in Q3 2024, with notable rebounds in Europe and Asia. The US economy remains robust, showing a gradual deceleration, or "soft landing," allowing the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates within the year. Similarly, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already made interest rate cuts, expected to bolster stock markets overall. Thailand's economy is poised for recovery in the second half of 2024, driven by accelerated budget disbursement and improvements in the manufacturing and tourism sectors. InnovestX projects Thai economic growth at 2.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, with the SET Index target set at 1,500 points by year-end.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy at InnovestX Securities, stated, "The global economy in Q3 2024 shows signs of a synchronized recovery, led by major economies such as the United States, followed by Europe and Asia, particularly in the manufacturing sector (PMI), which is rebounding. The service sector remains strong. China's economy is expected to be supported by stimulus measures across various dimensions, including fiscal, monetary, and the real estate sector, which has been a persistent issue. Additionally, measures to boost confidence in the capital market are in place, while inflation is gradually slowing down, leading to interest rate cuts primarily in Europe and later in the United States towards the end of the year. These factors will further support the global economic recovery and increase the attractiveness of Asian stock markets. The Thai stock market is also positively impacted by accelerated budget disbursements, supporting improved performance expected in the second half of the year."
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research at InnovestX Securities, revealed, "The macroeconomic direction is set to change, with the global economic recovery expected to boost overall GDP growth. Central banks worldwide are likely to start lowering interest rates, with the US Federal Reserve projected to make two rate cuts this year, and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to make three. China will stimulate its economy through fiscal measures, ensuring continuous economic recovery. We believe that Q1 was the lowest point for the Thai economy, and it is now on the path to recovery. Key risks to watch this quarter include geopolitical issues, particularly the trade war between China and Western nations, and political risks within Thailand."
📌For more information, please visit: https://lnkd.in/gf39-WPc
