With Tom Brady saying he’ll be back, the Bucs (+1000) will be a popular choice to win another championship. History says that’s difficult to do, so we’ll pass on the Bucs. We’re looking for value and big cash in this early look at next season, which makes it relatively easy to also exclude the Buffalo Bills or the Green Bay Packers. Both are good teams and legitimate conference title contenders, but they’re priced accordingly with the Packers at +900 and the Bills at +1200. If we’re tying up funds for a year, we need a better price at the end of the rainbow.
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Related: Longshot futures bets on the Broncos, Bears and Panthers
Same goes for the Los Angeles Rams, who are going to be both a highly popular and highly scrutinized team in 2021. The Rams have top-level defensive stars in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and added quarterback Matthew Stafford via trade. With rookie running back Cam Akers also looking like a keeper, the Rams should be much better offensively than they’ve been at any point over the past two years. But this is about value, and it’s gone. Before the Stafford trade, the Rams were +2000. Now, that +1200 price is too short for my liking.
The New Orleans Saints (+1800) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+3000) have salary cap issues and major quarterback questions. The San Francisco 49ers were ravaged by injuries last season, but at +1600 that’s an easy pass with Jimmy Garoppolo still penciled in as their starting quarterback. The Baltimore Ravens will get offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley back and have enough talent in the secondary to win in the postseason, but +1200 isn’t enough. The gap between the Chiefs and the rest of the AFC remains wide.
And J.J. Watt signing with the Cardinals? didn’t move the line at all, keeping Arizona at 40/1 to win the Super Bowl. “JJ Watt is a great player and a nice addition for the Cardinals,” says Jason Scott, VP of trading at BetMGM. However, defensive players just do not impact future odds. BetMGM will not be adjusting Arizona’s odds (+4000) to win the Super Bowl.”
With that in mind, let’s take some of our Super Bowl prop winnings — we all won big, right? — and do a little value shopping. Next February will be here before you know it. And for a more analytical view on the 2022 Super Bowl winners, check out this column by Michael Salfino.
(Note: This link will take you to a $600 risk-free bet offer at BetMGM)
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UPDATE: The Texans’ release of J.J. Watt on Feb. 12 moved Houston’s odds from +8000 to +10000
Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
Every other team on this list will give you a return of at least 20/1. That’s ideally what you want, but we’re trying to make money. Mahomes and the Chiefs are the favorites, and +600 is too attractive a price to turn down.
Seattle Seahawks (+2200)
The offense limped to the finish last season. That led to a coaching staff makeover, and new play-caller Shane Waldron now is charged with putting Russell Wilson and company in better position to attack defenses down the field. The Seahawks need to fix their own pass defense (No. 20 per FootballOutsiders.com DVOA rankings last season) and need to keep Wilson from again being the league’s most-sacked quarterback. Given Wilson’s talents and playmaking ability, this is fair return if the Seahawks can stay healthy and keep Wilson upright.
Cleveland Browns (+2500)
Now that an 18-year playoff drought is over, can the Browns sustain success and make a real run at their first Super Bowl? With arguably the league’s best offensive line intact and plenty of salary cap flexibility to boost the defense, it looks like they can. Kevin Stefanski won the NFL’s Coach of the Year award in his first season, and most impressive was the way Stefanski and quarterback Baker Mayfield unlocked the passing game in the back half of the season. The defense needs more than a little help, and ideally you’d want a little better price given that the Browns’ road back to the playoffs first runs through the rugged AFC North before it runs through Kansas City. But the offense is loaded, and with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on hand the defensive cupboard isn’t totally bare.
Miami Dolphins (+2500)
It feels like the possibility that the Dolphins will end up trading for Deshaun Watson is built into this price. It’s still worth a few bucks, because if they do, they’ll pair Watson with an interesting group of pass-catchers and a defense that was No. 6 against the pass per DVOA. The Dolphins fell just short of the playoffs in 2020 and feel that their rebuild is right on schedule. They’re only real contenders, though, if they make a significant upgrade at quarterback.
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Los Angeles Chargers (+3000)
Justin Herbert is the real deal. The defense was ravaged by injury last season. The special teams were a disaster, and ex-coach Anthony Lynn was one of the worst game managers in recent memory. There’s enough talent on hand that the Chargers should expect better on several fronts — and expect a return to the postseason. If Herbert takes a leap, the Chargers could be a monster by the time they get there.
Carolina Panthers (+5000)
Admittedly, this is a wild stab. But it’s been widely reported that the Panthers were in on the Stafford sweepstakes and plan to make a real pitch for Watson, and from that we can surmise that the Panthers feel they’re ready for a real run. Already in place is a nice young roster and a group of dynamic playmakers. The defense needs some significant upgrades but the Panthers will have enough cap room to chase at least one top-level free agent. If you assume the Saints slip and that the Falcons won’t be real NFC South contenders next season, can’t you see the Panthers as a 2021 playoff team?
Washington Football Team (+6600)
The defense is legit. A quarterback search has to be the top offseason priority, especially with Alex Smith gone, right? The NFC East is in shambles, and if the right quarterback lands here, this is a heck of a price for a team that has some interesting young pieces on both sides of the ball and made great strides in its first season under coach Ron Rivera. Somebody had to represent the NFC East in the playoffs; maybe that experience will prove valuable going forward.
| TEAM | BETMGM ODDS | WIN PROBABILITY | 2020 W-L |
|---|---|---|---|
600 | 11.39% | 14-2 | |
900 | 7.97% | 13-3 | |
1000 | 7.25% | 11-5 | |
1200 | 6.13% | 11-5 | |
1200 | 6.13% | 13-3 | |
1200 | 6.13% | 10-6 | |
1600 | 4.69% | 6-10 | |
1800 | 4.19% | 12-4 | |
2200 | 3.47% | 12-4 | |
2500 | 3.07% | 11-5 | |
2500 | 3.07% | 10-6 | |
2500 | 3.07% | 6-10 | |
2500 | 3.07% | 11-5 | |
2500 | 3.07% | 11-5 | |
3000 | 2.57% | 12-4 | |
3000 | 2.57% | 7-9 | |
3000 | 2.57% | 7-9 | |
4000 | 1.94% | 7-9 | |
4000 | 1.94% | 8-8 | |
5000 | 1.56% | 8-8 | |
5000 | 1.56% | 5-11 | |
5000 | 1.56% | 4-11-1 | |
5000 | 1.56% | 8-8 | |
6600 | 1.19% | 7-9 | |
6600 | 1.19% | 6-10 | |
6600 | 1.19% | 4-12 | |
6600 | 1.19% | 5-11 | |
8000 | 0.98% | 5-11 | |
8000 | 0.98% | 2-14 | |
8000 | 0.98% | 4-11-1 | |
10000 | 0.79% | 1-15 | |
10000 | 0.79% | 4-12 |
Note: We’ve converted the moneylines to their implied probabilities, removing the vig proportionally across the odds.
Our favorite longshots
New York Giants (+6600)
I am partial to the Giants, for a few reasons. First and foremost, they get Saquon Barkley back. But they’ll also have a healthy Daniel Jones, who hurt his ankle at the worst possible time in 2020, just as the Giants’ offense seemed to be clicking. From Weeks 5-8, the Giants lost three games by a total of six points, including a two-point loss to the eventual Super Bowl champs. Plus, the Giants had a new coach, new OC, new system, revamped OL — and no preseason to properly gel. They could be a surprising force coming into next season, and +6600 is worth at least a small bet with big upside. I’ll probably be more aggressive once NFC and NFC East odds are released. — Nando Di Fino
Cincinnati Bengals (+8000)
This is a major stretch (but the numbers reflect that), but the Bengals were rocking and rolling offensively before Joe Burrow got hurt — with games of 505, 398, 468 and 367 total yards in the five weeks preceding his injury (with a 205-yard performance against the Ravens in Week 5). Shore up the defense a little in the offseason (through the draft or signings), hope that Joe Mixon can figure out how to stay healthy (he averaged 94 total yards per game this season), build on a Tee Higgins breakout rookie campaign — this is not as bad a team as the reputation suggests. Will I put more than $20 on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl? Probably not. But I also don’t consider it throwing away my money, completely, either. — Nando Di Fino
Historical Odds, 2000-2020
How long should a longshot be? If history is any indication, +6000 might be the max — but these odds are based on “preseason” and not “immediately after the preceding Super Bowl” — Tampa Bay was +6500 a little under a year ago. So pounce on value now and hope your team makes some title-winning moves over the next few months.
| Year | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
2001 | +6000 | |
2017 | +4000 | |
2007 | +3000 | |
2011 | +2200 | |
2000 | +2200 | |
2009 | +2000 | |
2012 | +1800 | |
2008 | +1800 | |
2003 | +1500 | |
2005 | +1200 | |
2002 | +1200 | |
2010 | +1100 | |
2020 | +1000 | |
2015 | +900 | |
2013 | +800 | |
2014 | +650 | |
2019 | +600 | |
2018 | +600 | |
2016 | +600 | |
2006 | +600 | |
2004 | +600 |
(Top photo: Scott Halleran/Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article)
