There isn’t just a newly energized sprint to election day on November 5. Television Academy members are just weeks away from voting for the 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards and there is a lot of campaigning, billboards, and direct mails to Emmy voters still to go. And, perhaps more surprisingly, despite “Shogun” and “The Bear” leading all programs in nominations, more categories are up for grabs than you might think.
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Sure, some races are probably locked up. Jean Smart will likely win her third Emmy for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series for “Hacks” over last year’s winner, Ayo Edebiri who took it for “The Bear.” And Edebiri’s co-star, Jeremy Allen White, is probably a safe pick to take his second straight win in the Lead Actor in a Comedy Series category. “Shogun” should win Drama Series over “The Crown” and “Baby Reindeer” is a smart pick over “True Detective: Night Country” for the super competitive Limited Series crown.
And yet, now that the dust has settled from the nominations announcement, let’s review some of the more intriguing matchups that could provide some genuine tension on Emmy night.
Comedy Series: “The Bear” vs “Hacks”
Yes, “The Bear” has 23 Emmy nominations. “Hacks” has just 16. This should be an easy slam dunk for FX, right? An easy repeat for “The Bear”? At publication, the third season is still no. 1 on Hulu’s top 10 (to clarify, these nominations are for season two), so the show is still massively popular with viewers. That being said, talk to anyone in Hollywood and it’s obvious this third season of “Hacks” was also massively popular in the industry. And first-time acting nominations for Paul W. Downs in Supporting Actor and Christopher Lloyd in Guest Actor (did anyone else completely forget he was in the season?) should raise some eyebrows that the surviving HBO Max series has a legit shot to pull off what would be considered an upset to many.
Lead Actress In A Limited Series or Movie: Jodie Foster vs Brie Larson
Two Oscar winners stand before us. One, Brie Larson, has already won an Emmy as a producer in the Interactive Program category. The other, Foster, has two Academy Awards to her credit but could join Larson in the halfway to EGOT class with a win. The money is likely on the “True Detective: Night Country” lead to take the trophy (the HBO program earned 19 nominations overall), but Larson’s chances shouldn’t be overlooked. “Lessons in Chemistry” survived a fall release with great word of mouth to land 10 nominations. If the Television Academy is going to reward the Apple TV+ series anywhere, a win for Larson might be it.
Supporting Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie: Robert Downey, Jr. vs Jonathan Bailey
In an Emmy season where so many Oscar winners have been snubbed (we’re looking at you Emma Stone and Kate Winslet), can Robert Downey, Jr. keep his 2024 golden luck going? The “Oppenheimer” star was sadly the only nominee for HBO’s acclaimed limited series “The Sympathizer,” but, notably, he played four different roles in the project. His biggest competition is likely Jonathan Bailey, the “Fellow Travelers” star who, like his nominated co-star Matt Boomer, has been campaigning since the Showtime and Paramount+ series dropped last October. Bailey, best known to most voters for his work on “Bridgerton,” may not play four characters, but chronicles his character’s arc over four turbulent decades. A few months ago, this category was seen as a lock for Downey, Jr. The question now is which program did the actors watch more and which performance was more impressive?
Competition Program: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” vs “The Traitors”
After taking the 2023 Casting for a Reality Program Emmy Award, “The Traitors” finally broke through in a number of major categories with five nominations including Host (Alan Cumming) and Outstanding Reality Program. But the reality program with the most nominations is still “RuPaul’s Drag Race.” The Paramount/MTV staple earned eight nominations including its first Choreography nomination (cracking a category this far into your run is always notable). “Drag Race” has also won this category five times over the past six years. The only year it lost was when “Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big Grrrls” rode a win thanks to Lizzo‘s “About Damn Time” song of the summer wave. As a member of the producers’ branch noted to The Playlist earlier this year, one reason “Drag Race” has been so consistently successful is because the alumni queens are often in the media (and social media). That means you are reminded of the series year-round on multiple fronts. It also doesn’t hurt that it’s the most political relevance of any of the nominees. Case in point, current presidential nominee Kamala Harris appeared on the “All Stars” edition of the show to remind people to vote just last week. This makes an upset unlikely, but if Cumming snags the Host category trophy from RuPaul Charles during the Creative Arts Emmys ceremonies, watch out.
Guest Actor in a Drama Series: Pick ’em
The Guest Actor categories can always be tough to call, but this one is wide, wide open. Can “Shogun’s” popularity propel Néstor Carbonell? Will Paul Dano put “Mr & Mrs. Smith” on the board?
Will anyone remember Tracy Letts from “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty”? (Clearly, enough voters did in the nomination process). Can Jonathan Pryce, a double nominee this year, take his first Emmy for “Slow Horses”? Or will another “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” guest star, John Turturro earn his second Emmy after getting his first 20 years ago in the Guest Actor in a Comedy Series field?
Guest Actress in a Drama Series: Pick ’em
Ready for another murderer’s row? Let’s start off with Emmy winner Michaela Coel for “Mr. & Mrs. Smith.” Next up is Claire Foy who already won this category and has two Emmys overall for playing Queen Elizabeth in “The Crown.” Four-time nominee and Oscar winner Marcia Gay Harden is repping “The Morning Show.” Not to be overlooked is Emmy winner and nine-time nominee Sarah Paulson for “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” and, delightfully, Parker Posey for, yes, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” Will the “Smith” stars cancel each other out? Will “The Crown” love propel Foy to a third win? Ponder.
Guest Actor in a Comedy Series: Ryan Gosling vs “The Bear”
Could Ryan Gosling win an Emmy on his first nomination for hosting “SNL”? Or will a trio of “The Bear” guest stars, Jon Bernthal, Bob Odenkirk, or Will Poulter take it? And what irony would there be if Odenkirk won his first acting nomination for a guest gig after being overlooked six times for his performance on “Better Call Saul”? Or, could the aforementioned Lloyd, who has remarkably gone three for three in Emmy nominations and wins keep that perfect streak going?
Guest Actress in a Comedy Series: Jamie Lee Curtis or…?
In theory, you would think Jamie Lee Curtis is a lock to win this after her celebrated turn in the hour-long second season “Fishes” episode. And, yes, that would get Curtis, like many other actors this year attempting it, halfway to EGOT. And, yet the competition is fierce. Emmy and Oscar winner Olivia Colman is a Television Academy favorite. Da’Vine Joy Randolph just had a legendary Oscar season run for “The Holdovers” landing her first nomination for “Only Murders in the Building.” And then you have Maya Rudolph, who has already won this category, and her one-time “SNL” co-star Kristen Wiig who is an 11-time nominee. Maybe “Hacks” regular Kaitlin Olson wins a split vote? Clearly, this isn’t the lock many Curtis fans thought it might be.
Outstanding Animated Program: “Scavengers Reign” vs “X-Men ’97” vs…”The Simpsons”
In the history of the Outstanding Animated Program category, the series that kept the FOX network alive on life support in its early years, “The Simpsons,” has won 12 out of the 32 times it has been nominated. That 12th win was for 2023 where it beat out a number of former winners including “Bob’s Burgers.” This year it faces off on two celebrated new entries, “Savegners Reign,” which found new streaming life when MAX licensed it to Netflix, and the Marvel Television and Disney+ breakout, “X-Men ’97” (a TCA Award nominee). And lurking in the wings is Netflix’s six-time Annie Award winner “Blue Eye Samurai.” Are you confident in picking a winner out of this crew?
Original Music And Lyrics: “SNL” vs “Only Murders in the Building”
Make no mistake, Pasek and Paul want that EGOT. They have the Oscar, they have the Tony, and they have the Grammy. All that’s missing is an Emmy. And in their dreams, “Which of the Pickwick Triplets Did It?” winning the Outstanding Original Music and Lyrics category would give it to them (along with trophies to “Only Murders” co-writers Marc Shaiman and Scott Whitman). But danger lurks among the fellow nominees and, an Emmy favorite, Maya Rudolph is in striking distance (remember her?). Rudolph along with Eli Brueggemann, Mike DiCenzo, Jake Nordwind, and Auguste White could give “SNL” its 4th win in this category overall for “Maya Rudolph Mother’s Day Monologue.” Who takes it Emmy fans?
Emmy voting begins on Thursday, August 15, and ends on Monday, August 26. The Creative Emmy Awards will be awarded on Saturday, September 7 and Sunday, September 8The Primetime Emmy Awards will be handed out on Sunday, Sept. 15.