The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4.18% on Tuesday, returning to four-month lows as dovish bets prevailed after a brief recovery driven by strong retail data. Investors are convinced the Fed will implement a rate cut in September, with Chair Powell indicating plans to reduce interest rates before inflation hits the 2% target, acknowledging the delayed effects of monetary policy. Additionally, consumer sentiment fell for the fourth consecutive month in July, and year-ahead inflation expectations reached a four-year low. These trends, along with moderated inflation and revised lower payrolls, solidified expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, a failed assassination attempt on Trump increased the likelihood of his second presidency, which supported Treasury yields due to his inflationary policies involving tax cuts, tighter immigration, and higher import tariffs.
US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.17 percent on Tuesday July 16, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on July 16 of 2024.
US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.17 percent on Tuesday July 16, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield is expected to trade at 4.33 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.07 in 12 months time.