Energy Aspects

"If you strip out the noise the data isn't actually that bad, but right now the market's not going to listen to any of that, it's just full-on sell mode". Energy Aspects Founder and Director of Research, Dr Amrita Sen, appeared on CNBC International to discuss the outlook for the oil market. Watch now - https://lnkd.in/ePMMpQXc #EnergyAspects #Oil #OOTT #Macro #Geopolitics

Recession fears are driving the market meltdown across Asia today following Friday's risk-off move in the aftermath of a softer-than-expected US employment report. Our macro team warned clients last Thursday that August is a treacherous month for financial markets. We have long highlighted that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve and have called for two rate cuts even as banks and others were initially calling for one. But we see no fundamental justification for the panic in today's trading. So we reiterate our forecast for only 25-bp cuts until clearer evidence emerges that a cycle of self-reinforcing layoffs has begun. We still think the deceleration is better described as orderly given some of the distortions to the US macro data that we addressed in last week's Open Markets. Read our comprehensive article from last Thursday 'The signal and the noise', by EA's Head of Macro Dan Schwartz, to stay informed and get the insights you need to navigate these treacherous times. https://lnkd.in/exXKGMpE   #EnergyAspects #Macro #FED #Trading

China's economy is shifting from energy-intensive industries to more efficient sectors. Over the past decade, the service sector's share in GDP has increased, while energy consumption in industrial sectors has declined, decoupling historical growth relationships. Chinese refineries are consolidating and upgrading to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Smaller, less efficient refineries are being shut down, and larger, advanced units are being developed, focusing more on petrochemical production. Oil demand is shifting from transport fuels to petrochemical products, driven by rapid capacity growth and changes in freight transport, such as the adoption of LNG trucks and electric vehicles. Despite initial concerns, gasoline demand remains resilient due to holiday travel and the rise of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Energy Aspects is committed to helping you navigate the energy transition. Learn more about our Trading the Transition service here - https://lnkd.in/eTS9rTUE #EnergyAspects #EnergyEfficiency #Oil #LNG #Refining

"Undoubtedly on the geopolitical side, we have seen a lot of events and tensions this year but not a lot of actual supply losses". Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Geopolitics, Richard Bronze, appeared on CNBC International to discuss the impact of Middle East tensions on the oil markets. Watch now - https://lnkd.in/ei4RXEVk #EnergyAspects #Geopolitics #Oil #OOTT

Last night Energy Aspects hosted our India Dinner Reception in New Delhi. Founder and Director of Research Dr Amrita Sen and Senior Refining Analyst George Dix shared our latest outlook on the energy markets. There was also a virtual presentation from Senior LNG Analyst Jake Horslen on recent developments in global LNG markets. Thank you to everyone who attended and we look forward to seeing you again at our next event. Find out how you can be part of these exclusive global events here - https://lnkd.in/eUvSmn7X

In our latest Energy Aspects Forum podcast, released for subscribers last week, Energy Aspects Founder and Director of Research Dr Amrita Sen spoke to Greg Sharenow, a managing director and portfolio management group leader at PIMCO. * Greg argues there is potential for further volatility down the oil curve as a result of increasing political and economic uncertainty, while carbon is also incorrectly priced given the potential for a Trump election win. * They note the inflation spike driving demand for real asset-based investment, but highlight that the most notable changes have come from new international investors that had historically shied away from energy and commodities due to their high volatility. * Despite low realised crude vol the past 18 months, which has put off some traders, Greg believes there are ample opportunities across commodity markets to generate alpha returns. You can watch the full podcast here - https://lnkd.in/ecB-vYaR

Often touted as the solution to reconcile fossil fuel demand stickiness and net zero ambitions, carbon capture and storage (CCS), like many other decarbonisation solutions, is struggling to gain traction at a pace commensurate with government climate targets. So, a rethink on the prospects for CCS is overdue. Around 50 MtCO2/y is currently captured globally—twice as much as 10 years ago—yet this only represents a sliver of the quantity needed to achieve net zero globally by 2050. The IEA estimates this to be 1 GtCO2 by 2030 (a 20-fold increase from today), and 6 GtCO2 by 2050 (a 120-fold increase). In truth, there is no precise quantity of capture that will be sufficient, as it depends on the future energy mix; for instance, a higher rate of electrification will decrease the reliance on CCS to capture fossil emissions. Nevertheless, there is a consensus that a lot more will be needed than is captured today, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors like cement, steel and chemicals. CCS is still important for achieving decarbonisation ambitions, but not the primary lever. Energy Aspects is committed to helping you navigate the energy transition. Learn more about our Trading the Transition service here - https://lnkd.in/eQ-9RH5x #EnergyAspects #EnergyTransition #NetZero #CCS

Since January, the Brazilian real has lost 15% of its value against the dollar as left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) publicly resists public-spending cuts proposed by his own cabinet. Now, in the wake of a 15-billion-reais spending freeze unveiled by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, we bring together Mario Sergio Lima, Medley Advisors’ Brazil analyst; Fernando Posadas, Head of Latin America; and Ignacio Labaqui, regional analyst, to discuss what happens next. Has Haddad tamed Lula? Will the currency and Brazilian assets recover? Will the central bank (Bacen) be forced to extend the pause in its easing cycle? Tune into the latest Medley podcast - https://lnkd.in/gcQPZRKE Our podcasts are also available on your favourite platforms, follow our page to stay up to date. Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eNViphmT Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/eg_BNdBS #EnergyAspects #GeoPolitics #Markets #Brazil

Join us from 30 September to 1 October in Central London for a phenomenal opportunity to gain invaluable insights and network with incredible global industry leaders at the EA Conference 2024! Watch below as Dr Amrita Sen, EA’s Founder and Director of Research, shares the key topics that will be discussed at this year’s event. Plus, hear from Jeff Currie, a Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects and Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle, on why this is a must-attend event for anyone in the energy commodities market. Find out more and register now - https://lnkd.in/eNs96VrN #EnergyAspects #EAConference #EnergyCommodities #Trading

Join us from 30 September to 1 October in Central London for a phenomenal opportunity to gain invaluable insights and network with incredible global industry leaders at the EA Conference 2024! Watch below as Dr Amrita Sen, EA’s Founder and Director of Research, shares the key topics that will be discussed at this year’s event. Plus, hear from Jeff Currie, a Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects and Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle, on why this is a must-attend event for anyone in the energy commodities market. Find out more and register now - https://lnkd.in/eNs96VrN #EnergyAspects #EAConference #EnergyCommodities #Trading