Vlasios Voudouris

This book, and the associated software in R, is about learning from data using the GAMLSS framework. GAMLSS stands for Generalised Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape. GAMLSS is a modern distribution based approach to (semi-parametric) regression analysis. A parametric distribution is assumed for the response (target) variable but the parameters of this distribution can vary according to explanatory variables. In data science language the book is about supervised machine learning.

This SI might be considered as a follow up of the SI “Oil and Gas Perspectives in the 21st century” published by Energy Policy in January 2014. This is because the 2014 SI explores some of the turbulence in oil and gas markets while this SI explores the effects of energy (or oil) on macro-economic growth.

This issue is timely, in view of the effects of the Great Recession and the tremendous volatility of the oil market in the past year, and the number of questions that have emerged, both… Show more

This SI might be considered as a follow up of the SI “Oil and Gas Perspectives in the 21st century” published by Energy Policy in January 2014. This is because the 2014 SI explores some of the turbulence in oil and gas markets while this SI explores the effects of energy (or oil) on macro-economic growth.

This issue is timely, in view of the effects of the Great Recession and the tremendous volatility of the oil market in the past year, and the number of questions that have emerged, both as to causes and consequences. There are eight papers in this collection, five of which deal with oil prices and oil shocks, while three focus on the role of energy on economic growth, with emphasis on the cost share and the evidence that the output elasticity of energy appears to be larger than its cost share. Several of the papers report econometric results that are in conflict with the predictions of neo-classical (Solovian) economic growth models. Those models explain growth as a consequence of capital (and labor) accumulation and exogenous improvements in technology, or total factor productivity.
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Current macro-econometric models mostly incorporate just two factors of production, labour and capital (with a time-dependent multiplier representing technological change or total factor productivity). These models assume that energy is an intermediate product of some combination of human labour and capital. These models also assume that the supply of energy is driven by economic demand. We assume the contrary, i.e. that useful energy is a primary input, derived (mostly) from natural capital… Show more

Current macro-econometric models mostly incorporate just two factors of production, labour and capital (with a time-dependent multiplier representing technological change or total factor productivity). These models assume that energy is an intermediate product of some combination of human labour and capital. These models also assume that the supply of energy is driven by economic demand. We assume the contrary, i.e. that useful energy is a primary input, derived (mostly) from natural capital. This failure to capture the impact of primary resources (as useful energy) on economic growth leads to inappropriate formulation of economic growth theories. To understand that impact better we need explicit evidence of marginal products of capital, labour and useful energy or useful work. As applied to the explanation of the past half century of economic growth of the EU-15 countries, the new results demonstrate the use of non-parametric relationships between capital, labour and useful energy to explain economic growth. They also indicate that marginal products of capital, labour and useful energy are variable – the marginal product depends on the levels of capital stock, labour input and useful energy flows. The proposed semi-parametric production function suggests country-specific policy implications for the EU (and other countries). Show less

We propose a novel framework for experimental designs of liberalised wholesale power markets, namely the Agent-based Computational Economics of the Wholesale Electricity Market (ACEWEM) framework. Here, we describe a detailed market simulation whereby the strategies of power generators emerge as a result of a stochastic profit maximization learning algorithm based upon the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape) statistical framework. The ACEWEM framework, which… Show more

We propose a novel framework for experimental designs of liberalised wholesale power markets, namely the Agent-based Computational Economics of the Wholesale Electricity Market (ACEWEM) framework. Here, we describe a detailed market simulation whereby the strategies of power generators emerge as a result of a stochastic profit maximization learning algorithm based upon the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape) statistical framework. The ACEWEM framework, which integrates the agent-based modelling paradigm with formal statistical methods to represent better real-world decision rules, is designed to be the foundation for large custom-purpose experimental studies inspired by computational learning. The paper therefore makes a methodological contribution in the development of an expert model of repeated auctions with capacity and physical constrains. It also makes an applied contribution by providing a more realistic basis for identifying whether high market prices can be ascribed to problems of market structure or exercise of market power. Show less

The role of unconventional oil is increasing in global energy markets. Although conventional oil is being depleted, unconventional oil might manage or eliminate supply constraints in meeting the demand for oil without large positive step changes in the prices. In this study, we use the ACEGES model, which is agent-based, to explore the potential impact of unconventional oil on the evolution of the oil markets, focusing on four important oil-producing countries. We also use quantile sheets to… Show more

The role of unconventional oil is increasing in global energy markets. Although conventional oil is being depleted, unconventional oil might manage or eliminate supply constraints in meeting the demand for oil without large positive step changes in the prices. In this study, we use the ACEGES model, which is agent-based, to explore the potential impact of unconventional oil on the evolution of the oil markets, focusing on four important oil-producing countries. We also use quantile sheets to summarize the simulation results. Given the estimated potential of conventional and unconventional resources, the results suggest that the production profiles will change tremendously. Although countries rich in conventional oil, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, will still occupy the global oil markets for approximately the first half of this century, oil production in countries with rich unconventional resources, such as Canada and Venezuela, will be higher in production than Saudi Arabia and Iran from 2050 to 2060. This change in production means that the market power in the global oil markets will shift from Middle Eastern countries to Canada and Venezuela in this century. Show less

Σε ό,τι αφορά την πρόσφατη μείωση της τιμής του φυσικού αερίου από την Gazprom, η ανάλυση αυτή υποδεικνύει ότι η πρόσφατη μείωση στην τιμή του φυσικού αερίου θα αυξήσει τελικά τη συνολική παραγωγή της ελληνικής βιομηχανίας, αντί να διατηρηθεί σταθερή (από τις επιχειρήσεις) προκειμένου να μειωθεί το τελικό τους κόστος σε ενέργεια.

Οι επενδύσεις σε πετρέλαιο, φυσικό αέριο και ηλεκτρική ενέργεια ίσως αποδειχτούν το τρίπτυχο σωτηρίας της ελληνικής οικονομίας.

Γιατί τελικά δεν έχει επιτευχτεί στην Ελλάδα ο «αναμενόμενος» ρυθμός προσέλκυσης ξένων επενδύσεων, ιδιαίτερα σε ελκυστικούς επενδυτικούς τομείς όπως η ενέργεια; Τι τελικά πρέπει να γίνει για να εισρεύσουν νέα κεφάλαια για μακροπρόθεσμες επενδύσεις στην Ελλάδα;

Forty years ago, the world experienced the “first oil shock”. Back then the world had just ended a period of strong economic growth in the developed world, with rising US oil imports, and began a period of turbulence in the price of oil and for many national economies. Back then (as now) it was recognised that oil price rises might snuff out economic recovery. Drawing on the names of the scenarios which Shell's planners introduced at that time, we were passing through “The Rapids” and about to… Show more

Forty years ago, the world experienced the “first oil shock”. Back then the world had just ended a period of strong economic growth in the developed world, with rising US oil imports, and began a period of turbulence in the price of oil and for many national economies. Back then (as now) it was recognised that oil price rises might snuff out economic recovery. Drawing on the names of the scenarios which Shell's planners introduced at that time, we were passing through “The Rapids” and about to enter a “World of Internal Contradictions”. In recent years there have again been many indicators of a “World of Internal Contradictions” and with the financial crisis and turbulence in oil markets those of “The Rapids” too. This issue is therefore timely, as many of those earlier challenges are still with us. Show less

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated… Show more

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated ultimate recoverable resources, the ‘Collective View’ and ‘Golden Age’ Scenarios suggest that the supply of natural gas is likely to meet the increasing demand for natural gas until at least 2035. The ‘Golden Age’ Scenario suggests significant ‘jumps’ of natural gas production – important for testing the resilience of long-term strategies. Show less

We show that the application of flexible semi-parametric statistical techniques enables significant improvements in model fitting of macroeconomic models. As applied to the explanation of the past economic growth (since 1900) in US, UK and Japan, the new results demonstrate quite conclusively the non-linear relationships between capital, labour and useful energy with economic growth. They also indicate that output elasticities of capital, labour and useful energy are extremely variable over… Show more

We show that the application of flexible semi-parametric statistical techniques enables significant improvements in model fitting of macroeconomic models. As applied to the explanation of the past economic growth (since 1900) in US, UK and Japan, the new results demonstrate quite conclusively the non-linear relationships between capital, labour and useful energy with economic growth. They also indicate that output elasticities of capital, labour and useful energy are extremely variable over time. We suggest that these results confirm the economic intuition that growth since the industrial revolution has been driven largely by declining energy costs due to the discovery and exploitation of relatively inexpensive fossil fuel resources. Implications for the 21st century, which are also discussed briefly by exploring the implications of an ACEGES-based scenario of oil production, are as follows: (a) the provision of adequate and affordable quantities of useful energy as a pre-condition for economic growth and (b) the design of energy systems as ‘technology incubators’ for a prosperous 21st century. Show less

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth,production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated… Show more

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth,production growth and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated ultimate recover-able resources, the 'Collective View' and 'Golden Age' Scenarios suggest that the supply of natural gas is likely to meet the increasing demand for natural gas until at least 2035. The 'Golden Age' Scenario suggests significant 'jumps' of natural gas production - important for testing the resilience of long-term strategies. Show less

The chapter presents a new approach to address energy policy and security based upon the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model and the SPT (stochastic portfolio theory). By using the ACEGES model, we can better explore the energy markets at the country level and provide assessments on export capacity (for energy producers) and import needs (for energy consumers) within a single umbrella. Based upon these country-specific assessments, the SPT framework… Show more

The chapter presents a new approach to address energy policy and security based upon the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model and the SPT (stochastic portfolio theory). By using the ACEGES model, we can better explore the energy markets at the country level and provide assessments on export capacity (for energy producers) and import needs (for energy consumers) within a single umbrella. Based upon these country-specific assessments, the SPT framework provides a flexible framework for analyzing the energy market structure from a theoretical and practical perspective. As a theoretical methodology, the SPT framework provides insight into questions of market behavior and arbitrage and can be used to construct hedging energy portfolios with controlled behaviors. As a practical tool, the SPT framework can be applied to the analysis and optimization of energy portfolios for physical trade for energy export-oriented and import-oriented countries. The integration of the ACEGES model and the SPT framework provides a way of analyzing the dynamics of the energy markets (for energy policy) and constructing energy portfolios for physical trade that can affect bilateral and multilateral energy trade agreements. Show less

A discussion on the relative merits of quantile, expectile and GAMLSS regression models is given. We contrast the ‘complete distribution models’ provided by GAMLSS to the ‘distribution free models’ provided by quantile (and expectile) regression. We argue that in general, a flexibility para- metric distribution assumption has several advantages allowing possible focusing on specific aspects of the data, model comparison and model diagnostics. A new method for concentrating only on the tail of… Show more

A discussion on the relative merits of quantile, expectile and GAMLSS regression models is given. We contrast the ‘complete distribution models’ provided by GAMLSS to the ‘distribution free models’ provided by quantile (and expectile) regression. We argue that in general, a flexibility para- metric distribution assumption has several advantages allowing possible focusing on specific aspects of the data, model comparison and model diagnostics. A new method for concentrating only on the tail of the distributions is suggested combining quantile regression and GAMLSS. Show less

MASON is an open source multiagent simulation library geared towards simulating very large numbers of rela- tively lightweight interacting agents. MASON has been used for a wide variety of simulation tasks in robotics, the social sciences, biology, and animation.

On June 15 and 16, 2013, approximately two dozen invitees convened at George Mason University to dis- cuss future directions for MASON and needs of the MASON community. This meeting formed the 2013 MA- SON NSF Workshop… Show more

MASON is an open source multiagent simulation library geared towards simulating very large numbers of rela- tively lightweight interacting agents. MASON has been used for a wide variety of simulation tasks in robotics, the social sciences, biology, and animation.

On June 15 and 16, 2013, approximately two dozen invitees convened at George Mason University to dis- cuss future directions for MASON and needs of the MASON community. This meeting formed the 2013 MA- SON NSF Workshop, sponsored by the National Science Foundation under CRI CI-P grant 1205626. Show less

Despite efforts to increase renewables, the global energy mix is still likely to be dominated by fossil-fuels in the foreseeable future, particularly gas for electricity and oil for land, air and sea transport. The reliance on depleting conventional oil and natural gas resources and the geographic distribution of these reserves can have geopolitical implications for energy importers and exporters.

Global Energy Policy and Security examines the security of global and national energy… Show more

Despite efforts to increase renewables, the global energy mix is still likely to be dominated by fossil-fuels in the foreseeable future, particularly gas for electricity and oil for land, air and sea transport. The reliance on depleting conventional oil and natural gas resources and the geographic distribution of these reserves can have geopolitical implications for energy importers and exporters.

Global Energy Policy and Security examines the security of global and national energy supplies, as well as the sensitivity and impacts of sustainable energy policies which emphasize the various political, economic, technological, financial and social factors that influence energy supply, demand and security. Multidisciplinary perspectives provide the interrelated topics of energy security and energy policy within a rapidly changing socio-political and technological landscape during the 21st century.


Included are two main types of interdisciplinary papers. One set of papers deals with technical aspects of energy efficiency, renewable energy and the use of tariffs. The other set of papers focuses on social, economic or political issues related to energy security and policy, also describing research, practical projects and other concrete initiatives being performed in different parts of the world. This book will prove useful to all those students and researchers interested in the connections between energy production, energy use, energy security and the role of energy policies. Show less

In many practical statistical situations, it is desirable to restrict the flexibility of nonparametric regression models to accommodate prior information. We propose an estimator for regression models with a smoothness penalty and constraints imposed by the nature of the problem. Our estimator is easy to implement and has an explicit algebraic structure. Alternative or additional constraints can be readily applied. We present production profiles of crude oil to demonstrate possible uses of the… Show more

In many practical statistical situations, it is desirable to restrict the flexibility of nonparametric regression models to accommodate prior information. We propose an estimator for regression models with a smoothness penalty and constraints imposed by the nature of the problem. Our estimator is easy to implement and has an explicit algebraic structure. Alternative or additional constraints can be readily applied. We present production profiles of crude oil to demonstrate possible uses of the proposed estimator. Show less

This paper illustrates the power of modern statistical modelling in estimating measures of market risk, here applied to the Brent and WTI spot price of oil. Both Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are cast in terms of conditional centiles based upon semiparametric regression models. Using the GAMLSS statistical framework, we stress the important aspects of selecting a highly flexible parametric distribution (skewed Student’s t distribution) and of modelling both skewness and… Show more

This paper illustrates the power of modern statistical modelling in estimating measures of market risk, here applied to the Brent and WTI spot price of oil. Both Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are cast in terms of conditional centiles based upon semiparametric regression models. Using the GAMLSS statistical framework, we stress the important aspects of selecting a highly flexible parametric distribution (skewed Student’s t distribution) and of modelling both skewness and kurtosis as nonparametric functions of the price of oil futures. Furthermore, an empirical application characterises the relationship between spot oil prices and oil futures - exploiting the futures market to explain the dynamics of the physical market. Our results suggest that NYMEX WTI has heavier tails compared with the ICE Brent. Contrary to the common platitude of the industry, we argue that ’somebody knows something’ in the oil business. Show less

A well functioning energy sector will accelerate Greece’s economic growth, make growth more inclusive, reduce poverty, and strengthen Greece’s status as a developed country. Energy-Investment schemes must enable a transparent wholesale price mechanism for all energy sources – oil, gas, electricity, and fuels – to jump-start a sustainable economic development path for Greece. Greece must position itself as one of the oil & gas industry's hottest new exploration frontiers. The investments in the… Show more

A well functioning energy sector will accelerate Greece’s economic growth, make growth more inclusive, reduce poverty, and strengthen Greece’s status as a developed country. Energy-Investment schemes must enable a transparent wholesale price mechanism for all energy sources – oil, gas, electricity, and fuels – to jump-start a sustainable economic development path for Greece. Greece must position itself as one of the oil & gas industry's hottest new exploration frontiers. The investments in the energy sector (oil, gas and electricity) can significantly affect the discussions about the sustainability of the Greek debt by 2020 with almost immediate socioeconomic benefits in terms of economic growth and net employment.

Oil, gas and electricity can form the basis of a new export-oriented industry for Greece to supply Europe with much needed energy and contribute to the enhancement of European energy security.The 21st century economics of offshore natural gas and crude oil are now different. We are at an early dawn of a fundamental shift in oil and gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece needs to start moving centre stage, particularly if financing vehicles for government bonds can be based upon material discoveries of oil and gas resources.

Furthermore, a focused investment portfolio on renewable energies (e.g. CSP, wind) might provide significant 'technology' incubators to jump start economic growth (e.g., similar to the role of coal in incubating technological innovations during the industrial revolution). Show less

The sustainability agenda is becoming an important element in business education. This is because there is a growing understanding of the need to develop strategic thinking that safeguards the long-term sustainability of business. To that end the Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System (ACEGES) project is introduced as a novel framework for developing a new generation of long-term decision scenarios. At a more general level, the project raises awareness of sustainable… Show more

The sustainability agenda is becoming an important element in business education. This is because there is a growing understanding of the need to develop strategic thinking that safeguards the long-term sustainability of business. To that end the Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System (ACEGES) project is introduced as a novel framework for developing a new generation of long-term decision scenarios. At a more general level, the project raises awareness of sustainable thinking in long-term business planning by means of controlled computational experiments. This paper describes the ACEGES tool, which has been introduced at a business school in the UK to educate students in the art and science of sustainable strategic thinking. Show less

Successful initial campaigns in Cyprus and Israel’s offshore zones have seen Southeast Mediterranean emerge as one of the oil & gas industry’s hottest new exploration frontiers in addition to East Africa following the successful initial campaigns in Mozambique and Uganda. As a result of the very material success of Noble Energy, corporate activity is almost certain to follow across the region starting with E&P (Exploration and Production) dominated ‘land grab’.

As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering… Show more

As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products. Show less

In times of uncertainties scenarios offer a solution. Starting with Royal Dutch Shell by the late 1960s, corporate scenarios are intended to challenge managers’ “personal microcosms” and to reflect the present and the past, before structuring the uncertainties of the future. Therefore, scenarios act as ‘early warning systems’ by focusing on the driving forces that makes a difference to decision-makers.

An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach… Show more

An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year. Show less

1. This evidence is presented to the Select Committee to provide a perspective in terms of the threats, vulnerability and consequences of the UK Energy Supply System within a global-national context characterized by unprecedented uncertainties and increasingly complex intertwines. This contribution is based upon the ACEGES project (www.aceges.org). ACEGES stands for Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System. The ACEGES models the energy demand and supply of 216… Show more

1. This evidence is presented to the Select Committee to provide a perspective in terms of the threats, vulnerability and consequences of the UK Energy Supply System within a global-national context characterized by unprecedented uncertainties and increasingly complex intertwines. This contribution is based upon the ACEGES project (www.aceges.org). ACEGES stands for Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System. The ACEGES models the energy demand and supply of 216 countries.

2. The aim is not to present another set of quantifications for policymaking, as there are a number of reports and papers published in recent years. Rather the aim is to provide a coherent overview of i) the assumptions of the energy models used to produce the published quantifications and ii) the approach used to develop energy scenarios for the assessment of the UK’s Energy Supply.

3. I am a specialist in the modelling of fuzzy phenomena and complex adaptive systems such as the Energy System. My research work aims to support evidence-based energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments. Currently, I am the Deputy Director of the Centre for International Business and Sustainability (CIBS) at the London Metropolitan Business School. I am also the organise of the "UK Energy Day: Sustainable Supply" which is part of the European network of events led by the Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) agency of the European Commission (EC).

4. It is evident today that the long-term sustainability of the UK’s energy system is under acute strain. Therefore the comments that follow mainly deal with the need to enhance:
a. The existing energy models to assess the sensitivity of the UK’s energy supply.
b. The way of developing multidimensional global-national continuous scenarios for long-term assessment of the resilient of the UK energy system to international events. Show less

Most executives know that overarching paints of plausible futures will profoundly affect the competitiveness and survival of their organisation. Initially from the perspective of Shell, this article discuses oil scenarios and their relevance for upstream investments. Scenarios are then incorporated into generative explanation and its principal instrument, namely agent-based computational laboratories, as the new standard of explanation of the past and the present and the new way to structure… Show more

Most executives know that overarching paints of plausible futures will profoundly affect the competitiveness and survival of their organisation. Initially from the perspective of Shell, this article discuses oil scenarios and their relevance for upstream investments. Scenarios are then incorporated into generative explanation and its principal instrument, namely agent-based computational laboratories, as the new standard of explanation of the past and the present and the new way to structure the uncertainties of the future. The key concept is that the future should not be regarded as ‘complicated’ but as ‘complex’, in that there are uncertainties about the driving forces that generate unanticipated futures, which cannot be explored analytically. Show less

The need for a conceptually unifying data model for the representation of geographic phenomena is widely understood. Although some successes have been reported, progress has been slow, especially at the conceptual and logical levels of abstraction. Drawing on and combining existing successes, this article suggests the object-field model with uncertainty and semantics at the conceptual and logical levels of abstraction. The logical level has been formalised in the Unified Modelling Language… Show more

The need for a conceptually unifying data model for the representation of geographic phenomena is widely understood. Although some successes have been reported, progress has been slow, especially at the conceptual and logical levels of abstraction. Drawing on and combining existing successes, this article suggests the object-field model with uncertainty and semantics at the conceptual and logical levels of abstraction. The logical level has been formalised in the Unified Modelling Language (UML) class diagram. It is shown that the concepts required to better represent geographic phenomena can be derived from a single foundation that is termed the Elementary_geoParticle with associated uncertainty and semantics by means of aggregation. The town centre phenomenon is used as an application of the conceptual framework being proposed. Show less

The fusion of agent-based and geospatial models represents an exciting new synthesis for social science and economics. It has the potential to improve the theory and the practice of modelling complex real-world phenomena. Yet, to date, there has been little systematic analysis at the conceptual and logical levels of how to fuse agent-based and geospatial models for the representation and reasoning of socioeconomic phenomena. Here both sets of issues are explored. In particular, it will be… Show more

The fusion of agent-based and geospatial models represents an exciting new synthesis for social science and economics. It has the potential to improve the theory and the practice of modelling complex real-world phenomena. Yet, to date, there has been little systematic analysis at the conceptual and logical levels of how to fuse agent-based and geospatial models for the representation and reasoning of socioeconomic phenomena. Here both sets of issues are explored. In particular, it will be argued that the development of synthetic models requires autonomous agents and flexible organisational structures that can complete their objectives while situated in a dynamic and uncertain geoenvironment represented by the concept of Elementary_geoParticle. As an example of the concept, I present a preliminary conceptual model of global energy to demonstrate the validity and possible uses of the proposed technique. Show less

The ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) 1.0 model is an agent-based model of conventional oil production for 93 countries. The model accounts for four key uncertainties, namely Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), estimated growth in oil demand, estimated growth in oil production and assumed peak/decline point. This documentation provides an overview of the ACEGES model capabilities and an example of how it can be used for long-term (discrete and continuous)… Show more

The ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) 1.0 model is an agent-based model of conventional oil production for 93 countries. The model accounts for four key uncertainties, namely Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), estimated growth in oil demand, estimated growth in oil production and assumed peak/decline point. This documentation provides an overview of the ACEGES model capabilities and an example of how it can be used for long-term (discrete and continuous) scenarios of conventional oil production. Show less

This chapter introduces the relationships among geovisualization, human computer interaction (HCI), geographic information systems (GIS) and cartography as a means of supporting decision making. It emphasizes the importance of the data modelling and the associated visualizations in terms of what we can do by way of analysis and the methods by which we can undertake the analysis. It also argues that concepts from Usability Evaluation Methods (UEMs) and other HCI techniques offer a potentially… Show more

This chapter introduces the relationships among geovisualization, human computer interaction (HCI), geographic information systems (GIS) and cartography as a means of supporting decision making. It emphasizes the importance of the data modelling and the associated visualizations in terms of what we can do by way of analysis and the methods by which we can undertake the analysis. It also argues that concepts from Usability Evaluation Methods (UEMs) and other HCI techniques offer a potentially more substantive approach to understanding the use of visualizations in collaborative decision making. Furthermore, the authors hope that understanding the underlying assumptions and relations among geovisualization, human computer interaction, geographic information systems and cartography will inform researchers and decision makers of a better design for studying geovisualization as enabling means of decision making. Show less

We present a method for representing, recording and managing conceptualization uncertainty. We review components of uncertainty associated with semantics and metadata. We present a way of recording and visualizing uncertainty using sketching and suggest a framework for recording and managing uncertainty and associated semantics using Object-Fields. A case study is also used to demonstrate a software prototype that shows proof-of concept. We conclude by identifying future research challenges in… Show more

We present a method for representing, recording and managing conceptualization uncertainty. We review components of uncertainty associated with semantics and metadata. We present a way of recording and visualizing uncertainty using sketching and suggest a framework for recording and managing uncertainty and associated semantics using Object-Fields. A case study is also used to demonstrate a software prototype that shows proof-of concept. We conclude by identifying future research challenges in terms of supporting dynamic exploration of uncertainty, semantics and field objects. Show less

Techniques and issues for the characterisation of an object-field representation that includes notions of semantics and uncertainty are detailed. The purpose of this model is to allow users to capture objects in field with internally variable levels of uncertainty, to visualize users’ conceptualizations of those geographic domains, and to share their understanding with others using embedded semantics. Concepts from collaborative environments inform the development of this semantic-driven model… Show more

Techniques and issues for the characterisation of an object-field representation that includes notions of semantics and uncertainty are detailed. The purpose of this model is to allow users to capture objects in field with internally variable levels of uncertainty, to visualize users’ conceptualizations of those geographic domains, and to share their understanding with others using embedded semantics. Concepts from collaborative environments inform the development of this semantic-driven model as well as the importance of presenting all collaborators’ analysis in a way that enables them to fully communicate their views and understandings about the object and the field within it. First, a conceptual background is provided which briefly addresses collaborative environments and the concepts behind an object-field representation. Second, implementation of that model within a database is discussed. Finally, a LandCover example is presented as a way of illustrating the applicability of the semantic model. Show less

This paper illustrates the power of modern statistical modelling in understanding processes characterised by data that are skewed and have heavy tails. Our particular substantive problem concerns film box-office revenues. We are able to show that traditional modelling techniques based on the Pareto–Levy–Mandelbrot distribution led to what is actually a poorly supported conclusion that these data have infinite variance. This in turn led to the dominant paradigm of the movie business that ‘nobody… Show more

This paper illustrates the power of modern statistical modelling in understanding processes characterised by data that are skewed and have heavy tails. Our particular substantive problem concerns film box-office revenues. We are able to show that traditional modelling techniques based on the Pareto–Levy–Mandelbrot distribution led to what is actually a poorly supported conclusion that these data have infinite variance. This in turn led to the dominant paradigm of the movie business that ‘nobody knows anything’ and hence that box-office revenues cannot be predicted. Using the Box–Cox power exponential distribution within the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape framework, we are able to model box-office revenues and develop probabilistic statements about revenues. Show less