Emmy Predictions: Drama Series – ‘Shogun’ Leads Noms, but ‘The Crown’ Still Very Much in the Race
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 5, 2024): The Japanese epic “Shōgun” garnered the most nominations of the year and is the undisputed frontrunner to win the first drama series statuette for FX Networks. However, it’s not necessarily a done deal.
In its final season, Netflix’s monarchy drama “The Crown” has won this category before and could garner many sympathy votes for its overall achievements. While many assume the mixed reviews for the last season will hold it back (and they’re right to a certain extent), it’s worth considering the precedent set by Season 8 of “Game of Thrones.” Despite being universally panned for its quality and unsatisfying conclusion, it managed to beat universally beloved fellow nominees such as “Ozark,” “Pose,” and “Succession.” Don’t underestimate the power of “prestige” and an international voting body that might be inclined to show it some love. However, that support could manifest in other categories, such as supporting drama actor for Jonathan Pryce or even writing or directing.
“Shōgun” remains the frontrunner for the moment, but the outcome is far from certain.
The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: JoJo Whilden/Prime Video -
Eligible Titles (Drama Series)
Image Credit: Richard Foreman Jr./A24/Paramount+ with SHOWTIME **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- “Ahsoka” (Disney+)
- “Alert: Missing Persons Unit” (Fox)
- “Alex Rider” (Freevee)
- “All American” (The CW)
- “All Rise
- “Almost Paradise” (Freevee)
- “American Rust Broken Justice” (Prime Video)
- “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
- “Average Joe” (BET+)
- “The Baxters”
- “Billions” Showtime)
- “Black Cake” (Hulu)
- “Blue Bloods” (CBS)
- “BMF” (Starz)
- “Bosch: Legacy” (Freevee)
- “The Buccaneers” (Apple TV+)
- “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
- “The Chi” (Showtime)
- “Chicago Fire” (NBC)
- “Chicago Med” (NBC)
- “Chicago P.D.” (NBC)
- “Chucky” (Syfy)
- “The Cleaning Lady” (Fox)
- “The Crown” (Netflix)
- “Cruel Summer”
- “CSI: Vegas” (CBS)
- “The Curse” (Showtime)
- “Dark Winds” (AMC)
- “Dead Boy Detectives” (Netflix)
- “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- “Elsbeth” (CBS)
- “The Equalizer” (CBS)
- “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- “FBI” (CBS)
- “FBI: International” (CBS)
- “FBI: Most Wanted” (CBS)
- “Fire Country” (CBS)
- “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
- “Found” (NBC)
- “Foundation” (Apple TV+)
- “The Gilded Age” (Max)
- “The Girls on the Bus” (Max)
- “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
- “Good Trouble” (Freeform)
- “The Green Veil” (The Network)
- “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC)
- “Halo” (Paramount+)
- “Harlan Coben’s Shelter” (Prime Video)
- “Hightown” (Starz)
- “Hijack” (Apple TV+)
- “Invasion” (Apple TV+)
- “The Irrational” (NBC)
- “Joe Pickett” (Paramount+)
- “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
- “La Brea”
- “Law & Order” (NBC)
- “Law & Order: Organized Crime” (NBC)
- “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” (NBC)
- “The Lincoln Lawyer” (Netflix)
- “Loki” (Disney+)
- “Manifest”
- “Mayans M.C.” (FX)
- “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)
- “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
- “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- “NCIS” (CBS)
- “NCIS: Hawai’i” (CBS)
- “NCIS: Sydney” (CBS)
- “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
- “9-1-1” (ABC)
- “Outer Range” (Prime Video)
- “Outlander” (Starz)
- “Parish” (AMC)
- “Power Book III: Raising Kanan” (Starz)
- “Power Book IV: Force” (Starz)
- “Quantum Leap” (NBC)
- “Reacher” (Prime Video)
- “The Rookie” (ABC)
- “S.W.A.T.” (CBS)
- “Sexy Beast” (Paramount+)
- “Shōgun” (FX)
- “Silo” (Apple TV+)
- “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- “Special Ops: Lioness” (Paramount+)
- “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
- “Star Trek: Strange New Worlds” (Paramount+)
- “Station 19” (ABC)
- “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
- “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
- “The Summer I Turned Pretty” (Prime Video)
- “Swagger” (Apple TV+)
- “3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
- “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
- “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan” (Prime Video)
- “The Tourist” (Max)
- “Tracker” (CBS)
- “Walker” (The CW)
- “The Walking Dead: Daryl Dixon” (AMC)
- “The Walking Dead: Dead City” (AMC)
- “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC)
- “Warrior” (Max)
- “The Way Home” (Hallmark)
- “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video)
- “Will Trent” (ABC)
- “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- “The Witcher” (Netflix)
- “The Woman in the Wall” (Showtime)
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More Information (Drama)
Image Credit: Apple TV+ 2023 category winner: “Succession” (HBO) — Season 4 — Jesse Armstrong, Adam McKay, Will Ferrell, Frank Rich, Kevin Messick, Mark Mylod, Jane Tranter, Tony Roche, Scott Ferguson, Jon Brown, Lucy Prebble and Will Tracy, executive producers; Dara Schnapper, Georgia Pritchett and Ted Cohen, co-executive producers; Susan Soon He Stanton, supervising producer; Gabrielle Mahon, produced by; Francesca Gardiner, consulting producer
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
