Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress (Drama) — This Category Remains Anna Sawai’s to Lose for ‘Shogun’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Weekly Commentary (Updated: Aug. 12, 2024): More to come.
The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will be held on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
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Image Credit: Apple TV+ And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Anna Sawai — “Shōgun” (FX) 2 Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix) 3 Jennifer Aniston –“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) 4 Reese Witherspoon –“The Morning Show” (Apple TV+) 5 Maya Erskine — “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video) 6 Carrie Coon — “The Gilded Age” (Max) Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series -
Eligible Performances (Lead Drama Actress)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple TV + **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- Freya Allan — “The Witcher” (Netflix)
- Jennifer Aniston — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
- Clarke Backo — “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
- Caitríona Balfe — “Outlander” (Starz)
- Angela Bassett — “9-1-1” (ABC)
- Caitlin Bassett — “Quantum Leap”
- Violett Beane — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- Melissa Benoist — “The Girls on the Bus” (Max)
- Juliette Binoche — “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
- Alisha Boe — “The Buccaneers” (Apple TV+)
- Alexandra Breckenridge — “Virgin River”
- Anya Chalotra — “The Witcher” (Netflix)
- Lauren Cohan — “The Walking Dead: Dead City”
- Carrie Coon — “The Gilded Age” (Max)
- Rosario Dawson — “Ahsoka” (Disney+)
- Dianne Doan — “Warrior” (Max)
- Roma Downey — “The Baxters” (Prime Video)
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
- Maya Erskine — “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- Rebecca Ferguson — “Silo” (Apple TV+)
- Kristine Frøseth — “The Buccaneers” (Apple TV+)
- Hani Furstenberg — “The Green Veil” (The Network)
- Danai Gurira — “The Walking Dead: The Ones Who Live” (AMC)
- Shanola Hampton — “Found” (NBC)
- Mariska Hargitay — “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” (NBC)
- Maahra Hill — “The Irrational” (NBC)
- Jess Hong — “3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
- Mia Isaac — “Black Cake” (Hulu)
- Rachel Keller — “Tokyo Vice” (Max)
- Kirby — “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
- Morgan Kohan — “Sullivan’s Crossing” (The CW)
- Queen Latifah — “The Equalizer” (CBS)
- Katrina Law — “NCIS” (CBS)
- Alyvia Alyn Lind — “Chucky” (Syfy)
- Madison Lintz — “Bosch: Legacy”
- Danielle Macdonald — “The Tourist” (Max)
- Krys Marshall — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
- Sonequa Martin-Green — “Star Trek: Discovery” (Paramount+)
- Patina Miller — “Power Book III: Raising Kenan” (Starz)
- Simone Missick — “All Rise”
- Vanessa Morgan — “Wild Cards”
- Missy Peregrym — “FBI” (NBC)
- Rosamund Pike — “The Wheel of Time” (Prime Video)
- Ellen Pompeo — “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC)
- Carrie Preston — “Elsbeth” (CBS)
- Ella Purnell — “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- Monica Raymond — “Hightown”
- Hadley Robinson — “Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (Max)
- Mimi Rogers — “Bosch: Legacy”
- Melissa Roxburgh — “Manifest”
- Zoe Saldaña — “Special Ops: Lioness” (Paramount+)
- Anna Sawai — “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)
- Anna Sawai — “Shōgun”
- Wrenn Schmidt — “For All Mankind” (Apple TV+)
- Shaquita R Smith — “Wicked City”
- Imelda Staunton — “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Maria Sten — “Reacher”
- Emma Stone — “The Curse” (Showtime)
- Lili Taylor — “Outer Range” (Prime Video)
- Maura Tierney — “American Rust: Broken Justice”
- Emily Tosta — “Mayans M.C.” (FX)
- Tammy Townsend — “Average Joe” (BET+)
- Lola Tung — “The Summer I Turned Pretty”
- Perdita Weeks — “Magnum P.I.”
- Michole Briana White — “BMF”
- Ruth Wilson — “The Woman in the Wall” (Showtime)
- Reese Witherspoon — “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
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More Information (Lead Drama Actress)
Image Credit: Disney+ 2023 category winner: Sarah Snook as Shiv Roy — “Succession” (HBO) — Season 4
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
