Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie) — The Most Wide Open Race Could be Down to Jonathan Bailey and Lamorne Morris
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Weekly Commentary (Updated: Aug. 19, 2024): The supporting actor (limited) race at this year’s Emmys features an intriguing group of seven nominees, making it one of the most wide-open acting categories.
Four of the nominees — Lamorne Morris (“Fargo”), Tom Goodman-Hill (“Baby Reindeer”), John Hawkes (“True Detective: Night Country”), and Lewis Pullman (“Lessons in Chemistry”) — come from shows that are also nominated for best limited or anthology series. Jonathan Bailey (“Fellow Travelers”) is one of three total nominees for his show. Treat Williams (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”) represents one of four shows this year with nominations in every major acting category. The others are Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” FX’s “The Bear,” and Netflix’s “The Crown.” This makes the absence of a best limited series nomination for “Feud” somewhat perplexing.
Then there’s Robert Downey Jr., the sole nominee from HBO’s “The Sympathizer.” Over the past four decades, only six actors have won an Emmy as the sole nominee from their show: Louie Anderson (supporting comedy actor for “Baskets” in 2016), Richard Kiley (lead drama actor for “A Year in the Life” in 1987), Regina King (lead actress in a limited series for “Seven Seconds” in 2018), Helen Mirren (lead actress in a limited series for “Prime Suspect: The Scent of Darkness” in 1996), Tatiana Maslany (lead drama actress for “Orphan Black” in 2016), and Mark Ruffalo (lead actor in a limited series for “I Know This Much Is True” in 2020).
Though many consider Downey the frontrunner, especially following his success with “Oppenheimer,” overcoming his competitors could be a challenge, given that his last Emmy nomination was over 20 years ago for “Ally McBeal.”
Historically, the Emmys often reward the same series across multiple categories, as seen with the recent sweeps of “Succession,” “The Bear,” and “Beef” earlier this year. This pattern can make it difficult for a sole nominee to succeed. However, Downey’s Marvel co-star Ruffalo achieved this feat in 2020 with his Emmy win. The unpredictability of pandemic-era award shows makes it hard to draw clear conclusions about future outcomes.
Projecting the winner can be helped by pairing winners from the same shows, especially in recent years. If Jodie Foster is your pick for lead actress (limited), I’d imagine Hawkes is also present on many of those ballots. If Jon Hamm is your lead actor (limited) choice, it helps to see Morris as a formidable competitor. If you think “Baby Reindeer” is headed for a “Beef” or “Succession”-type night, Goodman-Hill has to be on the table despite not being as well known as others.
And then there’s Bailey, who has a Critics Choice award in hand and is undoubtedly the year’s breakout. He could come away with his first statuette for his incredible turn as Tim Laughlin, an idealistic congressional staffer who falls in love with a World War II veteran in the Showtime miniseries. There’s rising support for the British star within Hollywood circles.
The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will be held on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.
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Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO And the Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Jonathan Bailey — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime) 2 Lamorne Morris — “Fargo” (FX) 3 Robert Downey Jr. — “The Sympathizer” (Max) 4 John Hawkes — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max) 5 Treat Williams — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) 6 Tom Goodman-Hill — “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) 7 Lewis Pullman — “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+) Variety: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Eligible Performances (Supporting Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
- Jelani Alladin — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
- Aml Ameen — “A Man in Full” (Netflix)
- Lior Ashkenazi — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Jonathan Bailey — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
- Fehinti Balogun — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+)
- McKinley Belcher III — “Eric” (Netflix)
- Finn Bennett — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
- Dali Benssalah — “The Veil” (Hulu)
- Jeremy Bobb — “Them: The Scare”
- Assaad Bouab — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Anthony Boyle — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Pierce Brosnan — “The Great Lillian Hall” (Max)
- Dominic Burgess — “American Horror Story: Delicate” (FX)
- Bill Camp — “A Man in Full” (Netflix)
- John Cena — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- Chris Chalk — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Josh Charles — “The Veil” (Hulu)
- Will Chase — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Jason Clarke — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
- Grantham Coleman — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Clifton Collins Jr — “Red, White & Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- Branden Cook — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Josiah Cross — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Rory Culkin — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Tony Curran — “Mary & George” (Starz)
- Vincent D’Onofrio — “Echo” (Disney+)
- Thibault de Montalembert — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Robert DeNiro — “Nada” (Hulu)
- Rudi Dharmalingham — “Role Play”
- Harris Dickinson — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX)
- Robert Downey Jr. — “The Sympathizer” (Max)
- Christopher Eccleston — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
- Lars Eidinger — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
- Héctor Elizondo — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case” (Peacock)
- Alexander England — “The Lost Flowers of Alice Hart” (Prime Video)
- Mike Epps — “The UnderDoggs”
- Will Ferrell — “Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
- Johnny Flynn — “Ripley” (Netflix)
- Dave Foley — “Fargo” (FX)
- Jermaine Fowler — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- Stephen Fry — “Red, White & Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- Jim Gaffigan — “Full Circle” (Max)
- Jim Gaffigan — “Unfrosted” (Netflix)
- Guillaume Gallienne — “The Regime” (Max)
- Ncuti Gatwa — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Zach Gilford — “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Zachary Golinger — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Aiyana Goodfellow — “Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
- Forrest Goodluck — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Forrest Goodluck — “Pet Semetary: Bloodlines” (Paramount+)
- Tom Goodman-Hill — “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
- Hugh Grant — “The Regime” (Max)
- Jason Gray-Stanford — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
- Alberto Guerra — “Griselda” (Netflix)
- Daniel Hall — “Oblivious”
- Gustaf Hammarsten — “Dr. Death” (Peacock)
- Johnny Harris — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+)
- Wood Harris — “Shooting Stars” (Peacock)
- Will Harrison — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)
- Josh Hartnett — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- John Hawkes — “True Detective: Night Country” (Max)
- Jack Huston — “Expats” (Prime Video)
- Jason Isaacs — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Luke James — “Them: The Scare”
- Thomas Jane — “Bosco”
- Jharrel Jerome — “Full Circle” (Max)
- Ron Cephas Jones — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
- Tommy Lee Jones — “Finestkind” (Paramount+)
- Noah Jupe — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Joe Keery — “Fargo” (FX)
- Harvey Keitel — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock)
- Barry Keoghan — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Ezra Faroque Khan — “Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
- Amir Khoury — “Ghosts of Beirut”
- Luke Kirby — “Dr. Death” (Peacock)
- Taylor Kitsch — “Painkiller” (Netflix)
- Thomas Kretschmann — “Upgraded”
- Greg Kriek — “Die Hart: Die Harter”
- Jake Lacy — “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock)
- Jake Lacy — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
- Hugh Laurie — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
- Toan Le — “The Sympathizer” (Max)
- Ted Levine — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
- Hamish Linklater — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)
- Henry Lloyd-Hughes — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Maurizio Lombardi — “Ripley” (Netflix)
- George Lopez — “The UnderDoggs”
- William H. Macy — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- Felix Mallard — “Turtles All the Way Down” (Max)
- Nate Mann — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Joe Mantello — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Marc Maron — “Genie”
- Eddie Marsan — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Sage Mayer — “The Block Trilogies Vol. 1: Dark Days, Darker Nights”
- Daniel Mays — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Eric McCormack — “The Other Black Girl” (Hulu)
- Conor Merrigan-Turner — “Apples Never Fall”
- Robert Michael — “Oblivious”
- Gregory Montel — “Upgraded”
- Lamorne Morris — “Fargo” (FX)
- Glenn Morshower — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)
- Jack Mulhern — “Pet Semetary: Bloodlines” (Paramount+)
- Dermot Mulroney — “Shooting Stars” (Peacock)
- Jonas Nay — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock)
- Navid Negahban — “Ghosts of Beirut”
- Fred Nguyen Khan — “The Sympathizer” (Max)
- Duy Nguyễn — “The Sympathizer” (Max)
- Bill Nighy — “Role Play”
- Denis O’Hare — “American Horror Story: Delicate” (FX)
- Timothy Olyphant — “Full Circle” (Max)
- Clive Owen — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX)
- Conan O’Brien — “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain” (Peacock)
- Randall Park — “Totally Killer”
- Hunter Parrish — “The Other Black Girl” (Hulu)
- Sunil Patel — “Alice & Jack (Masterpiece)” (PBS)
- Tom Pelphrey — “A Man in Full” (Netflix)
- Kal Penn — “The UnderDoggs”
- Barry Pepper — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Lewis Pullman — “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
- James Purefoy — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
- Dennis Quaid — “Full Circle” (Max)
- Dennis Quaid — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Amit Rahav — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Lior Raz — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Lance Reddick — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
- Noah J. Ricketts — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
- Linus Roache — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
- Jeff Ross — “Ricky Stanicky”
- Eli Roth — “The Idol” (Max)
- Mark Ruffalo — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
- David Rysdahl — “Fargo” (FX)
- Andrew Santino — “Ricky Stanicky”
- Siddiq Saunderson — “Kemba”
- Andrew Schulz — “The UnderDoggs”
- Jason Schwartzman — “Quiz Lady” (Hulu)
- Austin Scott — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
- Rufus Sewell — “Scoop” (Netflix)
- Phaldut Sharma — “Full Circle” (Max)
- Troye Sivan — “The Idol” (Max)
- Billy Smith — “Ghosts of Beirut”
- JB Smoove — “Música” (Prime Video)
- Chaske Spencer — “Echo” (Disney+)
- Sam Spruell — “Fargo” (FX)
- Eliot Sumner — “Ripley” (Netflix)
- Donald Sutherland — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Che Tafari — “Little Wing”
- Brian Tee — “Expats” (Prime Video)
- Henry Thomas — “Pet Sematary: Bloodlines”
- Russell Tovey — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Michael Trucco — “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Camilo Jiménez Varón — “Griselda” (Netflix)
- Charlie Vickers — “The Lost Flowers of Alice Hart”
- Patrick Walker — “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
- Javon “Wanna” Walton — “Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
- Jonny Weldon — “One Day” (Netflix)
- Jesse Williams — “The Great Lillian Hall” (Max)
- Joshua J. Williams III — “Them: The Scare”
- Treat Williams — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Sam Woolf — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Bowen Yang — “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain” (Peacock)
- Sebastián Zurita — “The Lost Flowers of Alice Hart” (Prime Video)
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More Information (Supporting Actor, Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: MARK HILL/NETFLIX 2023 category winner: Paul Walter Hauser — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
