Weekend outlook and fire updates

Thanks to cooler weather and more humid conditions, air quality across the state has been generally good to moderate the last few days, aside from communities near active fires. Fires to note:

In Western Washington, the 2620 Road/Jupiter Fire began near Brinnon on Wednesday evening, and is reported at 445 acres. Smoke impacts will largely be localized to residents in and near the Brinnon area. It's unlikely that smoke from the fire will impact the Kitsap or Seattle areas this weekend.

The Jupiter Fire near Brinnon in Jefferson County (c/o Western WA Type 3 Incident Management Team).

In North Central WA, the Pioneer and Easy Fires continue to burn, yet have exhibited minimal growth the past couple of days. Air quality in Chelan, Stehekin, and the Methow will likely range from Good to Moderate.

In South Central WA, the Williams Mine Fire is now 11,302 acres. Smoke impacts will be the worst in Trout Lake and Glenwood, especially during the overnight hours as the smoke builds up. The SW Yakama Reservation also may observe periodic Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality. Temporary air monitors have been deployed in both Trout Lake and Glenwood to monitor air quality conditions--these temporary air monitors are denoted by triangles on the fire and smoke map at the top of this page. The Retreat fire outside of Yakima is now 80% contained; the Yakima Valley should see mostly Good and Moderate air quality due to decreased fire behavior.  

Weekend outlook: A brief period of easterly flow on Saturday morning will potentially transport smoke from the North Cascades into Western Washington. However, impacts should stay moderate, and rain and thunderstorms arrive Saturday evening to clear out any transported smoke and mitigate impacts from the Jupiter Fire. In Eastern WA, forecasted thunderstorms today and tomorrow are unlikely to bring substantial rain; dry conditions contribute to a chance of new wildfire starts. 

Statewide Smoke Update

 

Fires of concern and recent satellite fire detections in Washington c/o Northwest Communication Center

 

Currently, the focus for thunderstorms is over the Cascade and northern mountains with potential for lightning to start new fires. Moving into the week, temperatures are expected to drop to average or slightly below, midweek.

Smoke conditions throughout the state have improved with most areas West of the Cascades showing GOOD air quality and MODERATE levels to the East. The Gorge will see some clearing as westerly winds push through the area with localized areas of smoke pooling nearest to the Williams Mine, Whisky Creek, and Sandstone Fires. Central Washington is expecting GOOD to MODERATE levels of smoke as well, due to a possible decrease in fire activity.

An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for all of Yakima County (excluding the Yakama Reservation) due to wildfires burning in the region. For more information, visit: https://www.yakimacleanair.org/

The EPA has also issued an Air Quality Advisory for the Yakama Reservation beginning August 1^st until further notice due to elevated levels of smoke from area fires. For more information, visit: https://www.epa.gov/farr/burn-bans-indian-reservations-id-or-and-wa

Statewide smoke update

Central and Eastern WA: shifting winds will bring smoke from the north

Smoke impacts continue in Central and Eastern WA from local and regional fires. Fires of note include the Pioneer and Easy Fires in North Central WA, the Retreat Fire near Yakima, and the Williams Mine Fire in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest. Canadian smoke has also entered the mix today--smoke from the Calcite Creek Fire in Southern British Columbia is currently impacting the Methow Valley. 

Fires of concern and recent satellite fire detections

The Retreat Fire outside of Yakima is now 53% contained, but active fire conditions today with strong winds will lead to Moderate to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality southeast of the fire in Yakima Valley. 

Active fire conditions are also expected on the Pioneer and Easy Fires today due to strong W/NW winds, which will also push smoke to the Methow Valley and Stehekin.

The Williams Mine fire in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest started yesterday and has grown to 2,000 acres, and will likely increase further today. Shifting N/NE winds tomorrow could contribute to smoke impacts in the Columbia Gorge and communities southwest of the fire towards the Vancouver area. 

Smoke from the Calcite Creek Fire just across the border in Southern British Columbia will impact the region today through the week due to continued winds from the north and northeast. Most of central and eastern WA should expect Moderate to occasional Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups air quality. Communities closest to active fires can expect occasional Unhealthy air quality. Returning westerly winds this weekend will improve air quality. 

GOES-W satellite imagery from August 6 showing smoke plumes from the Williams Mine Fire in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest, the Retreat Fire in Yakima County, and fires in North Central WA and Southern British Columbia.

Western WA: Possibility of wildfire smoke in Western WA later this week
Graeme Carvlin, Puget Sound Clean Air Agency 

The westerly winds that have been blowing smoke away from Western Washington are expected to change course later this week.  Winds blowing from east to west will likely bring smoke into the region.  The four main fires that may contribute are:

• The Shetland Creek fire – located 100 miles north of the US-Canada border in British Columbia, currently 67,000 acres
• The Calcite Creek fire – located on the Canadian side of the Okanogan National Forest, currently 10,000 acres
• The Pioneer fire – Lake Chelan, currently 35,000 acres
• The Retreat fire – Yakima, currently 41,000 acres

Wildfire smoke could arrive in Western Washington Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  We may see an oscillating pattern where smoke comes into the region overnight then clears out somewhat during the day.  This could be the case for Thursday night into Friday morning as well.  Areas near the Cascades, which are closer to the fires, will likely see more smoke than central Puget Sound and the rest of Western WA. Thurston County also may reach Moderate air quality.

Winds are expected to change back to westerly this weekend, which should help clear out any smoke.  Air quality could reach Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) near the Cascades and Moderate with peaks into USG across the Puget Sound region. 

Heat and Some Smoke in Eastern WA

After a cooldown earlier this week, major to extreme heat has returned to eastern Washington. Temperatures will soar into the triple digits today with daily record highs possible across many locations east of the Cascades, prompting the National Weather Service to issue an Excessive Heat Warning, valid until 8pm Saturday. While the heat should ease somewhat by Sunday, above normal temperatures are likely to continue through at least the middle of next week across the state. 

Active large fires such as the Retreat Fire near Yakima will respond to this heat and are likely to see increased fire behavior and smoke production today through the weekend. Air quality is already MODERATE across much of eastern WA with UNHEALTHY values in localized areas closer to active fires. As a result, an Air Quality Alert remains in effect across all of Okanogan, Ferry, and Yakima Counties as well as the Colville and Yakima Reservations, until further notice. However, due to a reduction in smoke in localized areas, the Air Quality Alert has ended for Chelan and Asotin counties. Skies are also hazy in western WA due to smoke aloft, but surface air quality is expected to remain in the GOOD category. 

A star helicopter on the Retreat Fire, west of Yakima. August 1, 2024. Image via InciWeb. 

Looking ahead into next week the outlook is largely the same for the eastern half of the state, with continued MODERATE air quality impacts at times due to westerly winds pushing smoke from active fires off to the east. Additionally it's worth mentioning that, while uncertain, there is a possibility of isolated to scattered lightning strikes across the eastern half of the state today through Tuesday, which could bring isolated new fire ignitions and new sources of smoke. That being said, a widespread dry lightning event is not expected.

After that, we're watching for a possible wind shift out of the north around Wed-Thurs next week which could bring more significant smoke into different communities than we've seen lately. At this time, however, there are no obvious smoke concerns in the forecast for areas west of the Cascades. 

Cleaner air today; heat returns later this week

Air quality across the state this morning is mostly good and moderate thanks to cooler and wetter conditions that have slowed smoke production from active fires. Today and tomorrow smoke impacts will largely be confined to communities closest to active fires, including the Pioneer, Retreat, Gwen, and Swawilla Fires. After starting yesterday, the Dan/Lower Granite Fire in north Garfield County has grown to 4,000 acres and yesterday sent smoke east to Pullman. Air quality alerts have been updated to include the counties of Asotin, Chelan, Ferry, Okanogan, and Yakima, as well as the Colville Reservation (update: the Colville Confederated Tribes lifted the air quality advisory on July 30). These Air Quality Alerts will be in effect until further notice. Enjoy the clean air and the cooler temperatures, as the heat will return later this week.

Increased fire activity affecting southern counties

Strong winds, lightning, and dry conditions have continued east of the Cascades, leading to more fire growth and new fires of concern.  Satellite imagery this morning shows large swaths of smoke across the region.  With the large number of fires in the Pacific NW and continued westerly flow, smoke impacts should be expected in central and eastern Washington through the weekend.  An Air Quality Alert continues for Yakima, Chelan, Okanogan, Stevens, and Ferry counties.  New Air Quality Alerts are in place for Klickitat, Benton, Walla Walla, Columbia, Garfield, and Asotin counties.  If you are near fire locations, please stay up to date on evacuation orders.

• The Retreat/Rimrock fire (human caused, 15,000 acres), upwind of Yakima, continues to burn in the Hwy 12 corridor around Oak Creek.  Smoke production has been extreme, with unhealthy air impacting most of the county.
• The Pioneer fire (human caused, 32,000 acres), near Stehekin in Chelan county, has slowed down thanks to firefighters, but continues to send smoke down Lake Chelan.
• The Swawilla fire (lightning, 31,000 acres), near Keller on the Colville Reservation, continues to grow and cause unhealthy air around Ferry, Okanogan, and Douglas counties.
• The Big Horn fire (49,000 acres), near the Klickitat / Benton County border, has reached Highway 14 and firefighters are working diligently, but smoke impacts are being felt nearby.
• The Powerline Rd fire (aka Walla Walla River Rd fire, 1,500 acres) is a new fire adding to the air quality impacts around Walla Walla county.
• The Cougar Creek fire (14,000 acres), in SW Asotin County, was exacerbated by additional lightning and continues to generate considerable smoke.
• The Gwen fire (20,000 acres), in Idaho, is very close to the Lewiston / Clarkston valley and has caused very unhealthy air.  The close proximity is of great concern for residents in the area.

There are also many more fires burning across the region, especially in Oregon where they are experiencing the largest wildfire season in years.  See the map below showing satellite-detected fires of concern.

Fires of concern and recent satellite fire detections

A band of moisture and cooler weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday, which should help reduce fire and smoke concerns for a bit, though it isn't expected to be enough moisture to extinguish fires.  

Fire and Smoke Update for July 24

Critical fire weather continues in Washington. In addition to the fires discussed in Monday's post, a few new fires emerged in Yakima County and Klickitat County. In Yakima County, the Black Canyon Fire (6,500 acres) is burning about 10 miles northwest of Naches, and the Retreat/Rimrock Fire (2,200 acres) is burning approximately a few miles west of Rimrock Retreat and has caused Hwy 12 closures. Both of these fires have grown quickly, although the Retreat/Rimrock fire is primarily responsible for current smoke impacts in the Yakima area. The Bighorn Fire in East Klickitat County has quickly grown to almost 15,000 acres, but current smoke production from the fire suggests minimal air quality impacts. Satellite imagery below from this morning shows the smoke plumes from fires in the state: 

Satellite imagery from July 24 showing visible smoke plumes from the Retreat/Rimrock Fire in Yakima County, the Pioneer fire in Chelan County, and the Swawilla Fire on the Colville Reservation.  Acquired from College of DuPage.

The Pioneer Fire also continues to burn. While the Chelan area had a bit of a reprieve yesterday from poor air quality, impacts from the Pioneer Fire are expected to increase today and tomorrow with hot, dry, and windy conditions. The daily smoke outlook for the Pioneer Fire can be found by clicking on the box around the Pioneer Fire location at the map at the top of this page or on the Local Smoke Outlooks tab. 

Similarly, smoke from other active wildfires will continue to impact communities nearby. This includes the Cougar Creek Fire in SE WA as well as the Bridge Creek and Swawilla Fires on the Colville Reservation. The current Air Quality Alert has been expanded and now includes the counties of Chelan, Okanogan, Ferry, and Stevens, as well as the Colville Reservation. An Air Quality Alert has also been issued for Yakima County. All Air Quality Alerts are in effect until further notice.

Wildfires in Oregon and British Columbia also continue to burn and windy conditions today and tomorrow may lead to intermittent smoke impacts across Central and Eastern Washington.

As for Western Washington, no smoke impacts are expected at this time. One exception--smoke from a fire on southern Vancouver Island is currently impacting west San Juan Island; low cost sensors are currently observing moderate air quality after a few hours of poor air quality overnight and impacts should continue to dissipate this afternoon.

Critical fire weather continues across Central and Eastern Washington; please continue to recreate responsible as any fire starts could spread quickly. 

Critical Regional Fire Risk

Critical fire weather continues throughout the state with the hot and dry conditions. The Pioneer Fire has grown to 30,000 acres and continues to impact the communities of Chelan, Manson, and Stehekin. Dry lightning in North Central Washington also caused the Easy Fire (350 acres) and the Miners Complex (500 acres). On the Colville Reservation the Swawilla and Bridge Creek Fires are together burning almost 10,000 acres. In Southeast WA, the Cougar Creek Fire has grown to 8,270 acres. While temperatures will start to cool starting this evening as a dry cold front passes through the region, active fires will continue to grow due to the windy and dry conditions over the next few days.

Active fire detections in the region as of this morning:

MODIS and VIIRS Fire Detections for the past 2 days.

There are currently several very large fires in Oregon currently burning over 100,000 acres. Aside from contributing haze above the surface to the state, we don't expect any smoke impacts over the next few days from these large-scale Oregon Fires. There are also a few fires in British Columbia to keep an eye on--Calcite Creek (1300 acres) and Shetland Creek (43,000 acres)--smoke from these fires will stay away from Washington thanks to south/southwest winds over the next few days. There are also quite a few active wildfires in eastern BC north of the Idaho/Washington border--later in the week smoke from these fires could potentially influence Northeast WA, but impacts are uncertain as of now.

In Washington, communities closest to active wildfires will continue to observe the greatest smoke impacts. The current Air Quality Alert for Chelan County and Methow Valley remains in place. Air quality will likely be unhealthy on the Colville Reservation due to smoke from the Swawilla and Bridge Creek Fires; the Colville Confederated Tribes have issued an air quality advisory. Increasing winds from the west starting this evening will clear out lingering haze in the rest of the state. Please continue to recreate responsibly and heed all burn bans.

Haze and Heat Continue East of the Cascades

Fires remain active in the state with 5 large fires currently being reported. The Pioneer and Cougar Creek fires remain active and 2 new fires started on Wednesday as a result of lightning. The Easy fire located within the Okanogan-Wenatchee NF was listed at 150 acres and Swawilla I (Colville Agency, BIA) is listed at 600 acres on the Colville Reservation. The Shoofly fire, also located on the Okanogan-Wenatchee NF, is last reported at 104 acres, and no new information has been received. 

 

 

Smoke rising above the Easy Fire on July 18, 2024. Photo via the USFS on inciweb.wildfire.gov. 

 

A ridge of high pressure will bring extreme heat east of the Cascades this weekend, especially on Sunday when temperatures are likely to break some daily records. Under that dome of heat, expect stagnant air and light winds across the region. This weather pattern should allow some wildfire smoke and haze to build up east of the Cascades Saturday afternoon through Sunday. It’s likely that most of eastern WA will be seeing MODERATE or UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS by Saturday night which should continue into Sunday before some improvement is possible early next week. While all of eastern WA may see some impacts, communities near larger incidents remain focus areas for the greatest air quality impacts. This includes Chelan, Twisp, and Winthrop near the Pioneer Fire as well as Clarkston and Asotin near the Cougar Creek Fire in southeast WA. 

                                                 Heat risk across eastern Washington on Sunday, July 21.  

In Western Washington, air quality is likely to remain GOOD to MODERATE over the weekend across the lowlands. There could be some wildfire smoke/haze from larger Oregon fires passing through at upper levels of the atmosphere on Sunday. So, skies might look a bit less blue than normal but it’s unlikely to affect surface air quality. That being said, those folks seeking out recreation activities in higher elevations of the Olympics and Cascades could have some air quality impacts on Sunday similar to those described for the eastern half of the state.  

For more information on protecting your health during an extreme heat event, visit this earlier post from the WA DOH, ‘Take Extra Care When It’s Hot and Smoky’.