Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes
Lucas Fery
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
SPEC, CEA, CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Davide Faranda
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, W6 8RH, London, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, 75005 Paris, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers are longer-lasting and deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 155–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Miriam D'Errico, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 961–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.
Bérengère Dubrulle, François Daviaud, Davide Faranda, Louis Marié, and Brice Saint-Michel
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Present climate models discuss climate change but show no sign of bifurcation in the future. Is this because there is none or because they are in essence too simplified to be able to capture them? To get elements of an answer, we ran a laboratory experiment and discovered that the answer is not so simple.
Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 423–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning approaches are spreading rapidly in climate sciences. They are of great help in many practical situations where using the underlying equations is difficult because of the limitation in computational power. Here we use a systematic approach to investigate the limitations of the popular echo state network algorithms used to forecast the long-term behaviour of chaotic systems, such as the weather. Our results show that noise and intermittency greatly affect the performances.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the global temperature rise caused by anthropogenic emissions, we still observe heavy snowfalls that cause casualties, transport disruptions and energy supply problems. The goal of this paper is to investigate recent trends in snowfalls from reanalysis and observational datasets. The analysis shows an evident discrepancy between trends in average and extreme snowfalls. The latter can only be explained by looking at atmospheric circulation.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, Evelyn Böhm, Bryan C. Lougheed, Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Lise Missiaen, Natalia Vazquez Riveiros, Pierre Burckel, Jörg Lippold, Helge W. Arz, Trond Dokken, François Thil, and Arnaud Dapoigny
Clim. Past, 14, 1315–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Recording the precise timing and sequence of events is essential for understanding rapid climate changes and improving climate model predictive skills. Here, we precisely assess the relative timing between ocean and atmospheric changes, both recorded in the same deep-sea core over the last 45 kyr. We show that decreased mid-depth water mass transport in the western equatorial Atlantic preceded increased rainfall over the adjacent continent by 120 to 980 yr, depending on the type of climate event.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study the dynamical properties of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation by analysing the sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency field over the period 1948–2013. The metrics are linked to the predictability and the persistence of the atmospheric flows. We study the dependence on the seasonal cycle and the fields corresponding to maxima and minima of the dynamical indicators.
Davide Faranda and Dimitri Defrance
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 517–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a general technique to detect a climate change signal in the coherent and turbulent components of the atmospheric circulation. Our analysis suggests that the coherent components (atmospheric waves, long-term oscillations) will experience the greatest changes in future climate, proportionally to the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered.
M. Mihelich, D. Faranda, B. Dubrulle, and D. Paillard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 187–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Dynamical processes in midlatitudes
A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
Towards a process-oriented understanding of the impact of stochastic perturbations on the model climate
Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis
Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Divergent convective outflow in ICON deep-convection-permitting and parameterised deep convection simulations
Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation over the 20th century
The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of medicane Ianos
Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective
Warm conveyor belt characteristics and impacts along the life cycle of extratropical cyclones: case studies and climatological analysis based on ERA5
The Connection Between North Atlantic Storm Track Regimes and Eastern Mediterranean Cyclonic Activity
Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS
A Lagrangian framework for detecting and characterizing the descent of foehn from Alpine to local scales
The upstream–downstream connection of North Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones in semi-idealized simulations
Understanding the vertical temperature structure of recent record-shattering heatwaves
Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget
A new characterization of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet using 2-dimensional moment analysis
Linking Gulf Stream air–sea interactions to the exceptional blocking episode in February 2019: a Lagrangian perspective
Linking compound weather extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, fronts and air-streams
Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity
The relation between Rossby wave-breaking events and low-level weather systems
Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming
Seasonally dependent increases in subweekly temperature variability over Southern Hemisphere landmasses detected in multiple reanalyses
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 2: Climatology over Europe
Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?
Diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks
A storm-relative climatology of compound hazards in Mediterranean cyclones
Atmospheric response to cold wintertime Tibetan Plateau conditions over eastern Asia in climate models
Transient anticyclonic eddies and their relationship to atmospheric block persistence
A composite approach to produce reference datasets for extratropical cyclone tracks: application to Mediterranean cyclones
Thunderstorm environments in Europe
What distinguishes 100-year precipitation extremes over central European river catchments from more moderate extreme events?
Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives
Moist available potential energy of the mean state of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic potential for warm conveyor belts and convection
Large spread in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5
Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region
Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain
Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones
Robust poleward jet shifts in idealised baroclinic-wave life-cycle experiments with noisy initial conditions
Revisiting the wintertime emergent constraint of the southern hemispheric midlatitude jet response to global warming
The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation
European heatwaves in present and future climate simulations: a Lagrangian analysis
Signatures of Eurasian heat waves in global Rossby wave spectra
Impact of grid spacing, convective parameterization and cloud microphysics in ICON simulations of a warm conveyor belt
Recurrent Rossby waves and south-eastern Australian heatwaves
Identification of high-wind features within extratropical cyclones using a probabilistic random forest – Part 1: Method and case studies
Classification of Alpine south foehn based on 5 years of kilometre-scale analysis data
Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
Summertime Rossby waves in climate models: substantial biases in surface imprint associated with small biases in upper-level circulation
Diabatic processes modulating the vertical structure of the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone: sensitivity to deep convection schemes
The role of cyclones and potential vorticity cutoffs for the occurrence of unusually long wet spells in Europe
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Moritz Deinhard and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-927-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastic perturbations are an established technique to represent model uncertainties in numerical weather prediction. While such schemes are beneficial for the forecast skill, they can also change the mean state of the model. We analyse how different schemes modulate rapidly ascending airstreams and whether the changes to such weather systems are projected onto larger scales. We thereby provide a process-oriented perspective on how perturbations affect the model climate.
Henri Rossi Pinheiro, Kevin Ivan Hodges, and Manoel Alonso Gan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 881–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-881-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cut-off lows (COLs) are weather systems with varied structures and lifecycles, from upper atmospheric to deep vortices. Deep, strong COLs are common around Australia and the southwestern Pacific in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs occur more in summer near the Equator. Jet streams play a crucial role in COL development, with different jets influencing its depth and strength. The study also emphasizes the need for better representation of diabatic processes in reanalysis data.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Edward Groot, Patrick Kuntze, Annette Miltenberger, and Holger Tost
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 779–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep convective clouds (thunderstorms), which may cause severe weather, tend to coherently organise into structured cloud systems. Accurate representation of these systems in models is difficult due to their complex dynamics and, in numerical simulations, the dependence of their dynamics on resolution. Here, the effect of convective organisation and geometry on their outflow winds (altitudes of 7–14 km) is investigated. Representation of their dynamics and outflows improves at higher resolution.
Stephen Outten and Richard Davy
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 753–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-753-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to wintertime weather events over Europe. One feature often overlooked is how much the climate variability explained by the NAO has changed over time. We show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century and that this is not reproduced by 50 CMIP6 climate models, which are generally biased too high. This has implications for projections and prediction of weather events in the region.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego S. Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emmanouil Flaounas, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, and Claudio Sanchez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1105, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high impact but poorly predicted medicane ("Mediterranean hurricane"). A community effort of numerical modeling provides robust results to improve its prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controls the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help understanding the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 633–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking over Greenland has substantial impacts on the weather and climate in mid- and high latitudes. This study applies a quasi-Lagrangian thinking on the dynamics of Greenland blocking and reveals two pathways of anticyclonic anomalies linked to the block. Moist processes were found to play a dominant role in the formation and maintenance of blocking. This emphasizes the necessity of the correct representation of moist processes in weather and climate models to realistically depict blocking.
Katharina Heitmann, Michael Sprenger, Hanin Binder, Heini Wernli, and Hanna Joos
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 537–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are coherently ascending air streams that occur in extratropical cyclones where they form precipitation and often affect the large-scale flow. We quantified the key characteristics and impacts of WCBs and linked them to different phases in the cyclone life cycle and to different WCB branches. A climatology of these metrics revealed that WCBs are most intense during cyclone intensification and that the cyclonic and anticyclonic WCB branches show distinct differences.
Dor Sandler, Hadas Saaroni, Baruch Ziv, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, and Nili Harnik
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1054, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic region serves as a source of moisture and energy for Mediterranean storms. Its impact over the Levant region remains an open question due to its smaller weather systems and their longer distance from the ocean. We find an optimal circulation pattern which allows North Atlantic influence to reach farther into the Eastern Mediterranean, thus making storms stronger and rainier. This may be relevant for future Mediterranean climate, which is projected to become much drier.
Konstantin Krüger, Andreas Schäfler, Martin Weissmann, and George C. Craig
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 491–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-491-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction models insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Observation-space data assimilation output is used to study the influence of assimilated radiosondes on the tropopause. The radiosondes reduce systematic biases of the model background and sharpen temperature and wind gradients in the analysis. Tropopause sharpness is still underestimated in the analysis, which may impact weather forecasts.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 463–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an innovative approach, the descent of foehn is diagnosed from a Lagrangian perspective based on 15 kilometer-scale simulations combined with online trajectories. The descent is confined to distinct hotspots in the immediate lee of local mountain peaks and chains. Two detailed case studies reveal a varying wave regime to be associated with the descent. Furthermore, additional controlling factors, such as the diurnal cycle, likewise influence the descent activity.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-419-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the formation of Mediterranean cyclones follows the presence of cyclones over the North Atlantic. The distinct regions of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean in the different seasons can be linked to the atmospheric state, in particular the position of the polar jet over the North Atlantic. With this we now better understand the processes that lead to the formation of Mediterranean cyclones. We used a novel simulation framework in which we directly show and probe this connection.
Belinda Hotz, Lukas Papritz, and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 323–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-323-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Analysing the vertical structure of temperature anomalies of recent record-breaking heatwaves reveals a complex four-dimensional interplay of anticyclone–heatwave interactions, with vertically strongly varying advective, adiabatic, and diabatic contributions to the respective temperature anomalies. The heatwaves featured bottom-heavy positive temperature anomalies, extending throughout the troposphere.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Jacob Perez, Amanda Maycock, Stephen Griffiths, Steven Hardiman, and Christine McKenna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-318, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses existing methods for identifying the position and tilt of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, proposing a new feature-based approach. The new method overcomes limitations of other methods, offering a more robust characterization. Contrary to prior findings, the distribution of daily latitudes shows no distinct multi-modal structure, challenging the notion of preferred jet stream latitudes or regimes. This research enhances our understanding of North Atlantic dynamics.
Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, Lukas Papritz, and Marc Federer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 181–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-181-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study links air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream to an atmospheric block in February 2019. We found that over 23 % of air masses that were lifted into the block by cyclones interacted with the Gulf Stream. As cyclones pass over the Gulf Stream, they cause intense surface evaporation events, preconditioning the environment for the development of cyclones. This implies that air–sea interactions over the Gulf Stream affect the large-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic–European region.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-270, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is specially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain-wind and wave-wind compounding, and how compound-cyclone statistics varies by region and season, but also depends on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Yonatan Givon, Or Hess, Emmanouil Flaounas, Jennifer Louise Catto, Michael Sprenger, and Shira Raveh-Rubin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 133–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A novel classification of Mediterranean cyclones is presented, enabling a separation between storms driven by different atmospheric processes. The surface impact of each cyclone class differs greatly by precipitation, winds, and temperatures, providing an invaluable tool to study the climatology of different types of Mediterranean storms and enhancing the understanding of their predictability, on both weather and climate scales.
Talia Tamarin-Brodsky and Nili Harnik
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 87–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Synoptic waves in the atmosphere tend to follow a typical Rossby wave lifecycle, involving a linear growth stage followed by nonlinear and irreversible Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Here we take a new approach to study RWB events and their fundamental relation to weather systems by combining a storm-tracking technique and an RWB detection algorithm. The synoptic-scale dynamics leading to RWB is then examined by analyzing time evolution composites of cyclones and anticyclones during RWB events.
Sebastian Schemm and Matthias Röthlisberger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 43–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-43-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has started to weaken atmospheric circulation during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. However, there is low agreement on the processes underlying changes in, for example, the stationarity of weather patterns or the seasonality of the jet response to warming. This study examines changes during summertime in an idealised setting and confirms some important changes in hemisphere-wide wave and jet characteristics under warming.
Patrick Martineau, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka, Hisashi Nakamura, and Yu Kosaka
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The representation of subweekly near-surface temperature variability trends over the Southern Hemisphere landmasses is compared across multiple atmospheric reanalyses. It is found that there is generally a good agreement concerning the positive trends affecting South Africa and Australia in the spring, and South America in the summer. A more efficient generation of subweekly temperature variance by horizontal temperature fluxes contributes to the observed rise.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Tiina Nygård, Lukas Papritz, Tuomas Naakka, and Timo Vihma
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 943–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020. We show the origins of various physical processes and their contributions to the formation of cold wintertime air masses.
Andrea Marcheggiani and Thomas Spengler
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 927–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-927-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is a gap between the theoretical understanding and model representation of moist diabatic effects on the evolution of storm tracks. We seek to bridge this gap by exploring the relationship between diabatic and adiabatic contributions to changes in baroclinicity. We find reversed behaviours in the lower and upper troposphere in the maintenance of baroclinicity. In particular, our study reveals a link between higher moisture availability and upper-tropospheric restoration of baroclinicity.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2322, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We aim to identify the situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within cyclones in the Mediterranean. These poorly understood hazard combinations respectively enhance the risk to infrastructure, the risk of coastal flooding, and the risk of respiratory issues. We identify distinct weather configurations and distinct cyclone structures, which favor distinct co-occurrence combinations. This has implications for the forecasting of these hazards.
Alice Portal, Fabio D'Andrea, Paolo Davini, Mostafa E. Hamouda, and Claudia Pasquero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The differences between climate models can be exploited to infer how specific aspects of the climate influence the Earth system. This work analyses the effects of a negative temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau on the winter atmospheric circulation. We show that models with a colder-than-average Tibetan Plateau present a reinforcement of the eastern Asian winter monsoon and discuss the atmospheric response to the enhanced transport of cold air from the continent toward the Pacific Ocean.
Charlie C. Suitters, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Kevin I. Hodges, Reinhard K. H. Schiemann, and Duncan Ackerley
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 683–700, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking describes large and persistent high surface pressure. In this study, the relationship between block persistence and smaller-scale systems is examined. Persistent blocks result from more interactions with small systems, but a block's persistence does not depend as strongly on the strength of these smaller features. This work is important because it provides more knowledge as to how blocks can be allowed to persist, which is something we still do not fully understand.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Deborah Morgenstern, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 489–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Two thunderstorm environments are described for Europe: mass-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in summer, over land, and under similar meteorological conditions, and wind-field thunderstorms, which occur mostly in winter, over the sea, and under more diverse meteorological conditions. Our descriptions are independent of static thresholds and help to understand why thunderstorms in unfavorable seasons for lightning pose a particular risk to tall infrastructure such as wind turbines.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Seraphine Hauser, Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Peter Knippertz, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 399–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Blocking describes a flow configuration in the midlatitudes where stationary high-pressure systems block the propagation of weather systems. This study combines three individual perspectives that capture the dynamics and importance of various processes in the formation of a major blocking in 2016 from a weather regime perspective. In future work, this framework will enable a holistic view of the dynamics and the role of moist processes in different life cycle stages of blocked weather regimes.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Colin Manning, Martin Widmann, Douglas Maraun, Anne F. Van Loon, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models differ in their representation of dry spells and high temperatures, linked to errors in the simulation of persistent large-scale anticyclones. Models that simulate more persistent anticyclones simulate longer and hotter dry spells, and vice versa. This information is important to consider when assessing the likelihood of such events in current and future climate simulations so that we can assess the plausibility of their future projections.
Franziska Teubler, Michael Riemer, Christopher Polster, Christian M. Grams, Seraphine Hauser, and Volkmar Wirth
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 265–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-265-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. The year-round dynamics of blocked regimes in the Atlantic European region are investigated in over 40 years of data. We show that the dynamics between the regimes are on average very similar. Within the regimes, the main variability – starting from the characteristics of dynamical processes alone – dominates and transcends the variability in season and types of transitions.
Acacia S. Pepler and Irina Rudeva
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 175–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-175-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, cold fronts have rained less often in southeast Australia, which contributes to decreasing cool season rainfall. The largest changes in front dynamics are found to the north of the area where rain changes. Wet fronts have strong westerly winds that reach much further north than dry fronts do, and these fronts are becoming less common, linked to weakening subtropical winds and changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation.
Alexander Scherrmann, Heini Wernli, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 157–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the dynamical origin of the lower-atmospheric potential vorticity (PV; linked to the intensity of cyclones) in Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the contribution of the cyclone and the environment by tracing PV backward in time and space and linking it to the track of the cyclone. We find that the lower-tropospheric PV is produced shortly before the cyclone's stage of highest intensity. We investigate the driving processes and use a global dataset and a process-resolving one.
Felix Jäger, Philip Rupp, and Thomas Birner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 49–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-49-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mid-latitude weather is dominated by the growth, breaking and decay of baroclinic waves and associated jet shifts. A way to study this process is via idealised life-cycle simulations, which are often classified as LC1 (anticyclonic breaking, poleward shift) or LC2 (cyclonic breaking, equatorward shift), depending on details of the initial state. We show that all systems exhibit predominantly anticyclonic character and poleward net shifts if multiple wave modes are allowed to grow simultaneously.
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately predicting the response of the midlatitude jet stream to climate change is very important, but models show a variety of possible scenarios. Previous work identified a relationship between climatological jet latitude and future jet shift in the southern hemispheric winter. We show that the relationship does not hold in separate sectors and propose that zonal asymmetries are the ultimate cause in the zonal mean. This questions the usefulness of the relationship.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Anubhav Choudhary and Aiko Voigt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1199–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1199-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The warm conveyor belt (WCB), which is a stream of coherently rising air parcels, is an important feature of extratropical cyclones. This work presents the impact of model grid spacing on simulation of cloud diabatic processes in the WCB of a North Atlantic cyclone. We find that the refinement of the model grid systematically enhances the dynamical properties and heat releasing processes within the WCB. However, this pattern does not have a strong impact on the strength of associated cyclones.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Lukas Jansing, Lukas Papritz, Bruno Dürr, Daniel Gerstgrasser, and Michael Sprenger
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1113–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1113-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 5-year climatology of three main foehn types and three deep-foehn subtypes. The main types differ in their large-scale and Alpine-scale weather conditions and the subtypes in terms of the amount and extent of precipitation on the Alpine south side. The different types of foehn are found to strongly affect the local meteorological conditions at Altdorf. The study concludes by setting the new classification into a historic context.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
Meryl Wimmer, Gwendal Rivière, Philippe Arbogast, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Julien Delanoë, Carole Labadie, Quitterie Cazenave, and Jacques Pelon
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 863–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of deep convection representation on the jet stream above the cold front of an extratropical cyclone is investigated in the global numerical weather prediction model ARPEGE. Two simulations using different deep convection schemes are compared with (re)analysis datasets and NAWDEX airborne observations. A deeper jet stream is observed with the less active scheme. The diabatic origin of this difference is interpreted by backward Lagrangian trajectories and potential vorticity budgets.
Matthias Röthlisberger, Barbara Scherrer, Andries Jan de Vries, and Raphael Portmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 733–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-733-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the palette of synoptic storylines accompanying unusually long wet spells in Europe. Thereby, we identify a hitherto not documented mechanism for generating long wet spells which involves recurrent Rossby wave breaking and subsequent cutoff replenishment. Understanding the synoptic processes behind long wet spells is relevant in light of projected changes in wet spell characteristics as it is a prerequisite for evaluating climate models with regard to such events.
Cited articles
Anderson, T. W.: On the distribution of the two-sample Cramer-von Mises criterion, Ann. Math. Stat., 33, 1148–1159, 1962. a
Arguez, A. and Vose, R. S.: The definition of the standard WMO climate normal: The key to deriving alternative climate normals, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 699–704, 2011. a
Ashley, W. S. and Mote, T. L.: Derecho Hazards in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1577, 2005. a, b
Ban, N., Caillaud, C., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Sobolowski, S., Adinolfi, M., Ahrens, B., Alias, A., Anders, I., Bastin, S., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Brisson, E., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S. C., Christensen, O. B., Fernández, J., Fita, L., Frisius, T., Gašparac, G., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Haugen, J. E., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lenderink, G., Leutwyler, D., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Mercogliano, P., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Raffa, M., Remedio, A. R., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Srnec, L., Steensen, B. M., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., de Vries, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zander, M. J.: The First Multi-Model Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations at Kilometer-Scale Resolution, Part I: Evaluation of Precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 57, 275–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w, 2021. a
Battaglioli, F., Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Taszarek, M., Ulbrich, U., and Rust, H.: Modelled Multidecadal Trends of Lightning and (Very) Large Hail in Europe and North America (1950–2021), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 62, 1627–1653, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0195.1, 2023. a, b
Bentley, M. L. and Mote, T. L.: A Climatology of Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Central and Eastern United States, 1986–95. Part I: Temporal and Spatial Distribution, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2527–2540, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2527:ACODPM>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a, b, c, d
Bentley, M. L., Mote, T. L., and Byrd, S. F.: A Synoptic Climatology of Derecho Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the North-Central Plains, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1329–1349, https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0088(200009)20:11<1329::AID-JOC537>3.0.CO;2-F, 2000. a, b
Brooks, H. E.: Severe Thunderstorms and Climate Change, Atmos. Res., 123, 129–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002, 2013. a
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., and Craven, J. P.: The Spatial Distribution of Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Environments from Global Reanalysis Data, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 73–94, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00045-0, 2003. a
Burke, P. C. and Schultz, D. M.: A 4-Yr Climatology of Cold-Season Bow Echoes over the Continental United States, Weather Forecast., 19, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.1175/811.1, 2004. a
Casanueva, A., Rodríguez-Puebla, C., Frías, M. D., and González-Reviriego, N.: Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 709–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014, 2014. a, b
Celiński-Mysław, D. and Matuszko, D.: An Analysis of Selected Cases of Derecho in Poland, Atmos. Res., 149, 263–281, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.06.016, 2014. a
Celiński-Mysław, D., Palarz, A., and Taszarek, M.: Climatology and Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Cool Season Bow Echo Storms in Poland, Atmos. Res., 240, 104944, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104944, 2020. a
Christidis, N. and Stott, P. A.: Changes in the Geopotential Height at 500 hPa under the Influence of External Climatic Forcings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10798–10806, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066669, 2015. a
Coniglio, M. C., Stensrud, D. J., and Richman, M. B.: An Observational Study of Derecho-Producing Convective Systems, Weather Forecast., 19, 320–337, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0320:AOSODC>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b, c, d
Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E., Raffaele, F., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Ban, N., Bastin, S., Belda, M., Belusic, D., Caldas-Alvarez, A., Cardoso, R. M., Davolio, S., Dobler, A., Fernandez, J., Fita, L., Fumiere, Q., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Güttler, I., Halenka, T., Heinzeller, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., Jacob, D., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E., Khodayar, S., Kunstmann, H., Knist, S., Lavín-Gullón, A., Lind, P., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Marelle, L., van Meijgaard, E., Milovac, J., Myhre, G., Panitz, H.-J., Piazza, M., Raffa, M., Raub, T., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Sieck, K., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., de Vries, H., and Warrach-Sagi, K.: A First-of-Its-Kind Multi-Model Convection Permitting Ensemble for Investigating Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean, Clim. Dynam., 55, 3–34, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8, 2020. a
Coppola, E., Nogherotto, R., Ciarlo', J. M., Giorgi, F., van Meijgaard, E., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Corre, L., Sandstad, M., and Somot, S.: Assessment of the European climate projections as simulated by the large EURO‐CORDEX regional and global climate model ensemble, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2019JD032356, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032356, 2021. a
Corfidi, S. F.: Cold Pools and MCS Propagation: Forecasting the Motion of Downwind-Developing MCSs, Weather Forecast., 18, 997–1017, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0997:CPAMPF>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018. a, b
Dotzek, N., Groenemeijer, P., Feuerstein, B., and Holzer, A. M.: Overview of ESSL's severe convective storms research using the European Severe Weather Database ESWD, Atmos. Res., 93, 575–586, 2009. a
DWD – Deutscher Wetterdienst: Climate Data Center, https://cdc.dwd.de/portal/ (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
ECA&D – European Climate Assessment and Dataset: E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data sets, https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php#datafiles (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
ESSL: The derecho and hailstorms of 18 August 2022, ESSL, https://www.essl.org/cms/the-derecho-and-hailstorms-of-18-august-2022/, (last access: 4 January 2023), 2023. a
ESSL – European Severe Storms Laboratory, European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), http://www.eswd.eu/ (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
Evans, J. S. and Doswell, C. A.: Examination of Derecho Environments Using Proximity Soundings, Weather Forecast., 16, 329–342, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0329:EODEUP>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a, b
Faranda, D.: Attractor Local Dimension and Local Persistence computation, MathWorks [code], https://fr.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/95768-attractor-local-dimension-and-local-persistence-computation (last access: 19 March 2024), 2021. a
Faranda, D., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., and Yiou, P.: Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017a. a, b
Faranda, D., Messori, G., and Yiou, P.: Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes, Scientific Reports, 7, 41278, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41278, 2017b. a, b
Faranda, D., Messori, G., and Vannitsem, S.: Attractor dimension of time-averaged climate observables: insights from a low-order ocean-atmosphere model, Tellus A, 71, 1554413, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2018.1554413, 2019. a
Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., Yiou, P., and Messori, G.: A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022. a, b
Faranda, D., Messori, G., Jezequel, A., Vrac, M., and Yiou, P.: Atmospheric Circulation Compounds Anthropogenic Warming and Impacts of Climate Extremes in Europe, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2214525120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120, 2023. a
Feng, Z.: PyFLEXTRKR Initial Public Release Codes, Zenodo [code] https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7429446, 2022. a
Feng, Z., Leung, L. R., Liu, N., Wang, J., Houze Jr, R. A., Li, J., Hardin, J. C., Chen, D., and Guo, J.: A Global High-Resolution Mesoscale Convective System Database Using Satellite-Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation, and Tracking, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034202, 2021. a, b
Feng, Z., Varble, A., Hardin, J., Marquis, J., Hunzinger, A., Zhang, Z., and Thieman, M.: Deep Convection Initiation, Growth, and Environments in the Complex Terrain of Central Argentina during CACTI, Mon. Weather Rev., 150, 1135–1155, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0237.1, 2022. a
Feng, Z., Hardin, J., Barnes, H. C., Li, J., Leung, L. R., Varble, A., and Zhang, Z.: PyFLEXTRKR: a flexible feature tracking Python software for convective cloud analysis, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2753-2023, 2023a. a, b
Feng, Z., Leung, L. R., Hardin, J., Terai, C. R., Song, F., and Caldwell, P.: Mesoscale Convective Systems in DYAMOND Global Convection-Permitting Simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102603, 2023b. a
Freitas, A. C. M., Freitas, J. M., and Todd, M.: Hitting time statistics and extreme value theory, Probab. Theory Rel., 147, 675–710, 2010. a
Freitas, A. C. M., Freitas, J. M., and Todd, M.: Extreme value laws in dynamical systems for non-smooth observations, J. Stat. Phys., 142, 108–126, 2011. a
Freitas, A. C. M., Freitas, J. M., and Vaienti, S.: Extreme Value Laws for sequences of intermittent maps, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1605.06287, 2016. a
Fujita, T. T.: Manual of Downburst Identification for Project NIMROD [National Intensive Meteorological Research on Downburst], Tech. Rep., Satellite and Mesometeorology Research Project, Dept. of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19780022828 (last access: 19 March 2024), 1978. a
Fujita, T. T. and Wakimoto, R. M.: Five Scales of Airflow Associated with a Series of Downbursts on 16 July 1980, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 1438–1456, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<1438:FSOAAW>2.0.CO;2, 1981. a
Fumière, Q., Déqué, M., Nuissier, O., Somot, S., Alias, A., Caillaud, C., Laurantin, O., and Seity, Y.: Extreme Rainfall in Mediterranean France during the Fall: Added Value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model, Clim. Dynam., 55, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8, 2020. a
Gatzen, C.: A Derecho in Europe: Berlin, 10 July 2002, Weather Forecast., 19, 639–645, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0639:ADIEBJ>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b
Gatzen, C.: Warm-Season Severe Wind Events in Germany, Atmos. Res., 123, 197–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.07.017, 2013. a
Gensini, V. A. and Mote, T. L.: Downscaled Estimates of Late 21st Century Severe Weather from CCSM3, Climatic Change, 129, 307–321, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1320-z, 2015. a, b
Gensini, V. A., Haberlie, A. M., and Ashley, W. S.: Convection-Permitting Simulations of Historical and Possible Future Climate over the Contiguous United States, Clim. Dynam., 60, 109–126, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06306-0, 2023. a, b
Glazer, R. H., Torres-Alavez, J. A., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Das, S., Ashfaq, M., and Sines, T.: Projected Changes to Severe Thunderstorm Environments as a Result of Twenty-First Century Warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE Simulations, Clim. Dynam., 57, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05439-4, 2021. a
González-Alemán, J. J., Insua-Costa, D., Bazile, E., González-Herrero, S., Miglietta, M. M., Groenemeijer, P., and Donat, M. G.: Anthropogenic Warming Had a Crucial Role in Triggering the Historic and Destructive Mediterranean Derecho in Summer 2022, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E1526–E1532, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0119.1, 2023. a, b
Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Holzer, A. M., Antonescu, B., Riemann-Campe, K., Schultz, D. M., Kühne, T., Feuerstein, B., Brooks, H. E., Doswell, C. A., Koppert, H.-J., and Sausen, R.: Severe Convective Storms in Europe: Ten Years of Research and Education at the European Severe Storms Laboratory, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 2641–2651, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0067.1, 2017. a
Guastini, C. T. and Bosart, L. F.: Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 1363–1382, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0256.1, 2016. a, b
Hamid, K.: Investigation of the Passage of a Derecho in Belgium, Atmos. Res., 107, 86–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.12.013, 2012. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 Global Reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023a. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2023b. a
Hochman, A., Alpert, P., Harpaz, T., Saaroni, H., and Messori, G.: A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: Eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study, Science Advances, 5, eaau0936, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau0936, 2019. a
Holley, D., Dorling, S., Steele, C., and Earl, N.: A climatology of convective available potential energy in Great Britain, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3811–3824, 2014. a
Holton, J. R. and Hakim, G. J.: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, 5th edition edn., Academic Press, Amsterdam, ISBN 978-0-12-384866-6, 2013. a
Houze, R. A.: 100 Years of Research on Mesoscale Convective Systems, Meteor. Mon., 59, 17.1–17.54, https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0001.1, 2018. a
Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.: Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205, 2017. a
Huffman, G., Stocker, E., Bolvin, D., Nelkin, E., and Jackson, T.: GPM IMERG Final Precipitation L3 Half Hourly 0.1 degree × 0.1 degree V06, Greenbelt, MD, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/GPM/IMERG/3B-HH/06, 2019. a, b
Hurrell, J. W. and Deser, C.: North Atlantic Climate Variability: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Marine Syst., 79, 231–244, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.002, 2010. a
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 134, 1–35, https://doi.org/10.1029/134GM01, 2003. a
Huuskonen, A., Saltikoff, E., and Holleman, I.: The Operational Weather Radar Network in Europe, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 897–907, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00216.1, 2014. a
Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1 edn., Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-1-00-915789-6, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2023. a, b
Janowiak, J., Joyce, B., and Xie, P.: NCEP/CPC L3 Half Hourly 4 km Global (60° S–60° N) Merged IR V1, Edited by Andrey Savtchenko, Greenbelt, MD, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/P4HZB9N27EKU, 2017. a, b
Johns, R. H. and Evans, J. S.: Comments on “A Climatology of Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Central and Eastern United States, 1986–95. Part I: Temporal and Spatial Distribution”, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 1049–1054, 2000. a
Johns, R. H. and Hirt, W. D.: The Derecho of July 19–20, 1983. A Case Study, National Weather Digest, 10, 17–32, 1985. a
Johns, R. H. and Hirt, W. D.: Derechos: Widespread Convectively Induced Windstorms, Weather Forecast., 2, 32–49, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1987)002<0032:DWCIW>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a, b, c, d
KNMI Climate Explorer: ERA5 reanalysis preprocessed, KNMI Climate Explorer [data set], https://climexp.knmi.nl/selectdailyfield2.cgi?id=someone@somewhere (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
Kunkel, K. E., Karl, T. R., Brooks, H., Kossin, J., Lawrimore, J. H., Arndt, D., Bosart, L., Changnon, D., Cutter, S. L., Doesken, N., Emanuel, K., Groisman, P. Y., Katz, R. W., Knutson, T., O'Brien, J., Paciorek, C. J., Peterson, T. C., Redmond, K., Robinson, D., Trapp, J., Vose, R., Weaver, S., Wehner, M., Wolter, K., and Wuebbles, D.: Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 499–514, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1, 2013. a, b
Lewis, M. W. and Gray, S. L.: Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK, Atmos. Res., 97, 194–213, 2010. a
Liebovitch, L. S. and Toth, T.: A fast algorithm to determine fractal dimensions by box counting, Phys. Lett. A, 141, 386–390, 1989. a
López, J. M.: A Mediterranean Derecho: Catalonia (Spain), 17th August 2003, Atmos. Res., 83, 272–283, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.08.008, 2007. a, b
Lucarini, V., Faranda, D., and Wouters, J.: Universal behaviour of extreme value statistics for selected observables of dynamical systems, J. Stat. Phys., 147, 63–73, 2012. a
Lucarini, V., Faranda, D., Freitas, A. C. M., Freitas, J. M., Holland, M., Kuna, T., Nicol, M., Todd, M., and Vaienti, S.: Extremes and recurrence in dynamical systems, John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 1-118-63219-2, 2016. a
Markowski, P. and Richardson, Y.: Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes, 1 edn., Wiley, ISBN 978-0-470-74213-6 978-0-470-68210-4, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470682104, 2010. a, b, c
Mathias, L., Ludwig, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-resolving hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in western Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019. a
Meredith, E. P., Maraun, D., Semenov, V. A., and Park, W.: Evidence for Added Value of Convection-Permitting Models for Studying Changes in Extreme Precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 12500–12513, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024238, 2015. a
Messori, G., Caballero, R., and Faranda, D.: A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3346–3354, 2017. a
Météo-France: API Observations Package, https://portail-api.meteofrance.fr/web/en/api/DonneesPubliquesPaquetObservation (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
Mohr, S., Wandel, J., Lenggenhager, S., and Martius, O.: Relationship between Atmospheric Blocking and Warm-Season Thunderstorms over Western and Central Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 3040–3056, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3603, 2019. a
Moloney, N. R., Faranda, D., and Sato, Y.: An overview of the extremal index, Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 29, 022101, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5079656, 2019. a, b
Morel, C. and Senesi, S.: A Climatology of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Europe Using Satellite Infrared Imagery. II: Characteristics of European Mesoscale Convective Systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1973–1995, https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002320603494, 2002. a, b
Morris, R.: The Spanish plume-testing the forecasters nerve, Meteorol. Mag., 115, 349–357, 1986. a
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, ISBN 978-0-309-38094-2, https://doi.org/10.17226/21852, 2016. a
NCEI and NOAA – National Centers for Environmental Information and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Global Hourly – Integrated Surface Database (ISD), NCEI and NOAA [data set], https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-hourly/ (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
Nobre, G. G., Jongman, B., Aerts, J., and Ward, P. J.: The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 084012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22, 2017. a, b, c
Nolen, R. H.: A Radar Pattern Associated with Tornadoes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 40, 277–279, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-40.6.277, 1959. a
Pearson, K.: X. On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable in the case of a correlated system of variables is such that it can be reasonably supposed to have arisen from random sampling, The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 50, 157–175, 1900. a
Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Mishra, A. N., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Truhetz, H., and Vergara-Temprado, J.: The First Multi-Model Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations at Kilometer-Scale Resolution Part 2: Historical and Future Simulations of Precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3581–3602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4, 2021. a
Pilguj, N., Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., and Hoogewind, K. A.: Are Trends in Convective Parameters over the United States and Europe Consistent between Reanalyses and Observations?, J. Climate, 35, 3605–3626, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0135.1, 2022. a, b, c
Piper, D. A., Kunz, M., Allen, J. T., and Mohr, S.: Investigation of the Temporal Variability of Thunderstorms in Central and Western Europe and the Relation to Large-Scale Flow and Teleconnection Patterns, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 3644–3666, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3647, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Púčik, T., Francová, M., Rýva, D., Kolář, M., and Ronge, L.: Forecasting Challenges during the Severe Weather Outbreak in Central Europe on 25 June 2008, Atmos. Res., 100, 680–704, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.014, 2011. a
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rýva, D., and Kolář, M.: Proximity Soundings of Severe and Nonsevere Thunderstorms in Central Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 4805–4821, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0104.1, 2015. a
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rädler, A. T., Tijssen, L., Nikulin, G., Prein, A. F., van Meijgaard, E., Fealy, R., Jacob, D., and Teichmann, C.: Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble, J. Climate, 30, 6771–6794, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1, 2017. a
Punkka, A.-J., Teittinen, J., and Johns, R. H.: Synoptic and Mesoscale Analysis of a High-Latitude Derecho – Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak in Finland on 5 July 2002, Weather Forecast., 21, 752–763, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF953.1, 2006. a
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P. H., Faust, E., Sausen, R., and Púčik, T.: Frequency of Severe Thunderstorms across Europe Expected to Increase in the 21st Century Due to Rising Instability, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7, 2019. a
Ribes, A., Thao, S., Vautard, R., Dubuisson, B., Somot, S., Colin, J., Planton, S., and Soubeyroux, J.-M.: Observed Increase in Extreme Daily Rainfall in the French Mediterranean, Clim. Dynam., 52, 1095–1114, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4179-2, 2019. a, b
Sarkar, N. and Chaudhuri, B. B.: An efficient differential box-counting approach to compute fractal dimension of image, IEEE T. Syst. Man Cyb., 24, 115–120, 1994. a
Schulz, W., Diendorfer, G., Pedeboy, S., and Poelman, D. R.: The European lightning location system EUCLID – Part 1: Performance analysis and validation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 595–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-595-2016, 2016. a
Smith, A., Lott, N., and Vose, R.: The integrated surface database: Recent developments and partnerships, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 704–708, 2011. a
Squitieri, B. J., Wade, A. R., and Jirak, I. L.: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part 1: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E1709–E1733, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0217.1, 2023a. a, b, c
Squitieri, B. J., Wade, A. R., and Jirak, I. L.: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part 2: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E1734–E1763, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0278.1, 2023b. a
Stein, C. and Wald, A.: Sequential confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with known variance, Ann. Math. Stat., 18, 427–433, 1947. a
Stocchi, P., Pichelli, E., Torres Alavez, J. A., Coppola, E., Giuliani, G., and Giorgi, F.: Non-Hydrostatic Regcm4 (Regcm4-NH): Evaluation of Precipitation Statistics at the Convection-Permitting Scale over Different Domains, Atmosphere, 13, 861, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060861, 2022. a
Süveges, M.: Likelihood estimation of the extremal index, Extremes, 10, 41–55, 2007. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B., Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Schulz, W.: A Climatology of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources, J. Climate, 32, 1813–1837, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1, 2019. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Groenemeijer, P., Edwards, R., Brooks, H. E., Chmielewski, V., and Enno, S.-E.: Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part I: Climatology of Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes, J. Climate, 33, 10239–10261, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0345.1, 2020a. a, b, c, d
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Púčik, T., Hoogewind, K. A., and Brooks, H. E.: Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes, J. Climate, 33, 10263–10286, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0346.1, 2020b. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Marchio, M., and Brooks, H. E.: Global Climatology and Trends in Convective Environments from ERA5 and Rawinsonde Data, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 35, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x, 2021b. a, b, c
Taszarek, M., Pilguj, N., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V., Brooks, H. E., and Szuster, P.: Comparison of Convective Parameters Derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 with Rawinsonde Data over Europe and North America, J. Climate, 34, 3211–3237, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0484.1, 2021c. a
Thorne, P. W. and Vose, R. S.: Reanalyses Suitable for Characterizing Long-Term Trends, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 353–362, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2858.1, 2010. a
Tippett, M. K., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V. A., and Brooks, H. E.: Climate and Hazardous Convective Weather, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 60–73, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6, 2015. a
Trapp, R. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Brooks, H. E., Baldwin, M. E., Robinson, E. D., and Pal, J. S.: Changes in Severe Thunderstorm Environment Frequency during the 21st Century Caused by Anthropogenically Enhanced Global Radiative Forcing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 19719–19723, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705494104, 2007. a
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., and Shepherd, T. G.: Attribution of Climate Extreme Events, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 725–730, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657, 2015. a
UERRA: Major Deliverable Reports, http://www.uerra.eu (last access: 19 March 2024), 2024. a
van Delden, A.: The Synoptic Setting of Thunderstorms in Western Europe, Atmos. Res., 56, 89–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00092-2, 2001. a, b
van den Broeke, M. S., Schultz, D. M., Johns, R. H., Evans, J. S., and Hales, J. E.: Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Production in Strongly Forced, Low-Instability Convective Lines Associated with Damaging Wind, Weather Forecast., 20, 517–530, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF876.1, 2005. a
Vautard, R., Cattiaux, J., Happé, T., Singh, J., Bonnet, R., Cassou, C., Coumou, D., D'Andrea, F., Faranda, D., Fischer, E., Ribes, A., Sippel, S., and Yiou, P.: Heat Extremes in Western Europe Increasing Faster than Simulated Due to Atmospheric Circulation Trends, Nat. Commun., 14, 6803, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3, 2023. a
Wei, W., Yan, Z., and Li, Z.: Influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Global Precipitation Extremes, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abed7c, 2021. a, b
Wikipedia: 2022 European derecho, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_European_derecho (last access: 4 January 2023), 2023. a
Yang, Q., Houze Jr, R. A., Leung, L. R., and Feng, Z.: Environments of Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Central United States in Convection Permitting Climate Simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 13288–13307, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027033, 2017. a, b
Zhuang, J., dussin, r., Huard, D., Bourgault, P., Banihirwe, A., Raynaud, S., Malevich, B., Schupfner, M., Filipe, Levang, S., Gauthier, C., Jüling, A., Almansi, M., RichardScottOZ, RondeauG, Rasp, S., Smith, T. J., Stachelek, J., Plough, M., Pierre, Bell, R., Caneill, R., and Li, X.: Pangeo-Data/xESMF: V0.8.2, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8356796, 2023. a
Short summary
In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in...