FORT COLLINS, Colo. — Colorado State University (CSU) meteorologists released an updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, upping the numbers on an already extremely active outlook.
CSU's new outlook calls for 25 named tropical systems, 12 hurricanes, and six major (category 3 or higher) hurricanes. The previous outlook released on June 11 forecasted 23 named tropical systems, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
For reference, an "average" year typically only has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
The most active seasons on record are 2005 and 2020. In 2020, there were 31 tropical systems, 30 named tropical systems, 14 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes. The 2005 season produced 31 tropical systems, 28 named tropical systems, 15 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes.
Hurricane season began on June 1 and will run through the end of November. The statistical peak of the season is September 10.
This hurricane season is off to a record-early start—Hurricane Beryl became the earliest category 5 on record. CSU cited Beryl in their new forecast, calling it a "likely harbinger of a hyperactive season."
Near record sea surface temperatures and the transition into an ENSO neutral or La Niña pattern are expected to fuel tropical development.
CSU isn't the only institution calling for an exceptionally active hurricane season. NOAA's May forecast was the most aggressive May hurricane season outlook on record.
As with all hurricane seasons, all it takes is one landfalling system to make it an impactful season.
CSU will release another updated hurricane season forecast on August 6.
