Top 200 Value Based Rankings

Christian McCaffrey is the first running back off the board for good reason. He finished as the RB1 in 2023 after an RB2 finish the year before. Last season, he scored 358 (half-PPR) fantasy points, which was over 100 more than the RB2, Raheem Mostert. He just turned 28 years old, so age isn’t much of a concern. There was some question whether he would see a mega workload with Elijah Mitchell healthy, but Mitchell’s status didn’t matter–McCaffrey averaged 21.2 touches per game, which was second only to Kyren Williams. He should continue to be the focal point of the 49ers’ highly-efficient offense.

Last season, Tyreek Hill finished as the fantasy WR2, though he had the highest per-game average (19.9 fantasy points per game) at his position. He was the fantasy WR2 in 2022 as well, and had the third-highest per-game average. He’s entering his age-30 season, which is his ninth-season in the league. According to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study, receivers see a slight decline in production in their ninth season before a much bigger drop in their 10th year. I’m not worried about Hill’s age at all, other than the tendency for older players to come down with nagging injuries more frequently than their younger counterparts. He’s a rock-sold WR1.

Justin Jefferson missed several games with a bad hamstring injury, so he finished as the WR38, but had the fifth-best per-game average. When his injury game (71% snaps) and his first game back (18% snaps) are removed, he averaged 20.0 fantasy points in eight full games, and the last four of those games–7-84, 6-141-1, 5-59, and 12-192-1–were without Kirk Cousins. That’s important since Cousins is now in Atlanta and Jefferson will be catching passes from Sam Darnold and/or J.J. McCarthy. The vast majority of those Week 15 to Week 18 targets were from the capable Nick Mullens (9.1 yards per attempt, 5.2% touchdown rate), so it makes sense that Jefferson’s numbers didn’t dip much when Cousins was out of the picture. He averaged 8.3-136-0.75 on 11.8 targets per game in four games with Cousins and 7.5-119-0.50 on 11.0 targets in four games without Cousins. Either way, he was posting overall WR1-WR3 type numbers with or without Cousins. Jefferson was the overall WR1 in 2022, so there’s upside with him if he’s going off the board WR3 or WR4. The issue is that unlike the other receivers going in the top six, he’s undergoing a quarterback change. The Vikings do have two decent options in Darnold and McCarthy, so if one isn’t getting it done, the other might. There’s a bit of risk here, but Jefferson should have a high-end WR1 season regardless of Cousins’ departure.

Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as the fantasy WR3 with the fourth-highest per-game average at his position. He was the fantasy WR8 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game production. As he enters his fourth season his stock is as high as ever. His environment (i.e. quarterback, role, play-caller) are all unchanged, so I’m expecting another monster year from the “Sun God.”

Taylor missed the first few games due to an ankle injury (and subsequent surgery) from the 2022 season and didn’t play 50%+ of the snaps until Week 7. From that point on he had the third-highest per-game average (16.8) at his position even though he missed three games due to a thumb injury later in the season. He missed six games in 2022, but played 15 and 17 games in his first two seasons. In 2021 he was the overall RB1, outscoring the RB2 (Austin Ekeler) by 60 points. Taylor should have a productive 2024, though there are a couple of areas of concern. Anthony Richardson only targeted his running backs on 10 of his 72 pass attempts (13.9%) and in the two full games that Richardson played, he saw three carries inside the opponents’ five-yard line while Indy running backs saw five carries. It’s obviously a small sample size, and Taylor’s availability may change the ratio, but Richardson’s 38% goal-line carry rate is pretty high. (For reference, Jalen Hurts had a 47% goal-line carry rate last season.) Taylor is a fantasy RB1, but perhaps lacks the receiving and touchdown upside of the backs being drafted ahead of him.

The Eagles upgraded from D'Andre Swift to Saquon Barkley, who finished as the fantasy RB16 in 13 games played in 2023. (He was the RB11 on a per-game basis, which didn't quite live up to his RB5 ADP.) Still in his prime, Barkley should fit in nicely with the Eagles' offense, though he's likely to see his receptions decline, at least a bit. Swift's receptions per game fell from 3.4 (with the Lions) to 2.4 last year with the Eagles. Still, Barkley is joining a much better offense and will command bell-cow touches, though touchdowns may also be an issue given the Eagles' ability to run the Brotherly Shove/Tush Push. He should go off the board near the 1st/2nd turn.

Derrick Henry finished as the RB8 in his age-29 season running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Tennessee running backs averaged 2.2 yards before contact per attempt last season, while the Ravens were second (3.2) in the league. Henry posted the No. 6 rushing grade at PFF, and was 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in broken tackles per attempt. His age is a minor concern, but if Henry can stay healthy he has the potential to put up monster numbers in the Baltimore offense, which has generated an average of 15.0 (running back) rushing touchdowns since 2020. Working backward, he has finished RB8, RB4, RB14 (eight games played), RB2, and RB3 in the last five seasons. He has legit 20-touchdown upside in the Baltimore offense.

As a rookie, De’Von Achane finished as the fantasy RB22 while missing six games. He posted the fourth-highest per-game average, just behind his teammate Raheem Mostert. He led the league in yards before contact per attempt (4.7), yards after contact per attempt (3.1), and was fourth in broken tackles per attempt (0.126). He was first in PFF’s rush grade and 13th in receiving grade. He’s a star in the making and has overall RB1 upside, but his workload is a concern. The 32-year-old Mostert is still around and should absorb 10-15 carries if he remains healthy. Achane only averaged 11.2 touches in the nine games he played with Mostert, but he did see an average of 13.9 touches in seven games when his first game (two touches in Week 2 vs. NE) and his injury game (two touches in Week 11 vs. LV) are removed. He averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in those seven games, which is actually more than the 17.2 fantasy points he averaged in the two games that Mostert missed. If Achane sees around 14 touches per game and can stay healthy, he’s going to finish as a solid fantasy RB1. Any increase in touches could lead to a top-three type season.

Sam LaPorta finished as the fantasy TE1 as a rookie, which is an incredible accomplishment given the history of rookies at the position. It’s unusual for rookie tight ends to find immediate success, but LaPorta posted 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those were the most catches, the second-most yards (to Kyle Pitts), and the most touchdowns (tied with Rob Gronkowski) among rookie tight ends since 2003. LaPorta’s position-leading 196.3 half-PPR fantasy points were just the 19th-most by a tight end since 2010. He’s a good bet to repeat as the TE1 since he should only get better in his second season, and his excellent environment in the Detroit offense is unchanged.

Josh Allen finished as the QB1 last year after finishing QB2 in 2022. He’s currently the first quarterback off the board, which is a bit surprising since he’s lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. They have been replaced by Curtis Samuel and second-round pick Keon Coleman, so it looks like a downgrade in the receiver room. The other variable is Joe Brady as offensive coordinator. In nine games under Brady (including two playoff games), Allen averaged 233 yards and 1.56 touchdowns, with 47 yards and 1.22 touchdowns as a runner. This works out to 26.8 fantasy points per game thanks to those eye-popping rushing numbers. His averages in the first 10 weeks under Ken Dorsey: 260 yards and 1.90 touchdowns, with 25 yards and 0.70 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to 22.5 fantasy points per game. Under Brady, his rush attempts were 9.2 per game compared to 4.8 per game under Dorsey, so it’s clear that his rushing floor is pretty high heading into 2024.

Isiah Pacheco finished as the fantasy RB13 in 14 games played. He had the 12th-highest per game average. In four postseason games, he averaged 23.3 touches for 93 yards and 1.5 touchdowns, which is high-end RB1 production. He was also regularly playing 70% or more of the snaps in the playoffs. The Chiefs will probably limit his usage somewhat during the regular season, but if that playoff workload is a preview of his 2024 workload, then he has upside from his RB12 ADP. He’s a rock-solid low-end RB1.

Mike Evans is coming off a 79-1255-13 season, which was good enough for a fantasy WR4 finish. It was his best season since 2018 (86-1524-8), so clearly he and Baker Mayfield had a nice rapport in Mayfield's first season. Now entering his 11th season, his production should be falling off, but given his outstanding 2023 season, we can continue to expect WR1/WR2 numbers from Evans.

Puka Nacua posted 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns as a rare “league-winner” in his rookie season. His numbers did take a significant dip in the 12 games that Cooper Kupp was active. He averaged 8.6-108-0.40 on 11.6 targets per game in five games that Kupp missed. In the 12 games that Kupp played, Nacua averaged 5.2-79-0.33 on 8.4 targets per game. That’s the difference between elite, top-five type numbers and fringe WR1 production. If Kupp is healthy, Nacua’s WR7 ADP may be wishful thinking. Nacua has overall WR1 upside if Kupp were to miss any more time.

Travis Kelce finished TE2, but it was a down year by his standards. His 984 yards were his fewest since 2015, and well off his 2016-2022 average of 1,230 yards per season. His 11.5 per-game average (half-PPR) was a pretty significant drop from 2022 (15.9) and 2021 (13.7). Both his yards per reception (10.6) and his yards per target (8.1) were career-lows. I think it’s safe to say that the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s elite production days are behind him, though he still offers high-end TE1 production in the Chiefs’ potent offense.

Josh Jacobs finished the season as the RB23, but missed a few games late in the year. He was the RB19 on a per-game basis. Jacobs was the fantasy RB3 in 2022. Jacobs could see a massive workload if he can remain healthy, though the Packers have implied that they want to get rookie MarShawn Lloyd involved.

Drake London finished as the WR40 last season while dealing with suspect quarterback play and questionable usage thanks to run-happy Arthur Smith. Kirk Cousins and former Rams OC Zac Robinson in the fold, the Falcons’ passing game should be more voluminous and more efficient. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles in his right (plant) foot, but if he’s good to go, he provided 19.1% more fantasy points to his receivers than the Atlanta quarterbacks did last year. The Rams also attempted 10% more passes last season, so when those factors are combined, the Falcons’ receivers could be looking at a 31% increase in fantasy points. Such an increase would have put London at WR21. A breakout is forthcoming.

Rachaad White has a career 3.7 yards per carry, but he finished RB5 last season after an RB38 finish the year before. He didn’t play starter snaps until Week 10 of 2022, but he was the RB25 down the stretch. White turned in a top-five season in 2023 thanks to volume–he turned 336 touches into 1,539 yards and nine scores. Given that White’s production was volume-based, I’m a bit worried that he may lose some touches to fourth-round pick Bucky Irving. White was 48th (out of 59 eligible backs) in PFF’s rushing grade, though he had a similar rushing grade as Irving’s when comparing their final year collegiate rushing grades. If he retains his high workload, then he could once again post RB1-type numbers. If that usage takes a hit, he may be more of a fantasy RB2.

DK Metcalf turned in a WR15 season after finishing WR17 the year before. His targets declined from 8.3 per game in 2022 to 7.5 per game last year. New OC Ryan Grubb brings his efficient scheme from the University of Washington, so the offense should be better and perhaps more pass-happy. Geno Smith has solid deep-ball accuracy as well. Metcalf is shaping up to be a rock-solid fantasy WR2 (with low-end WR1 upside) yet again.

Nico Collins had a breakout season, posting 80-1297-8 on 109 targets, finishing as the fantasy WR17. He fared well in Matt Harmon’s charting at Reception Perception: “As long as he just sustains this level of play, Collins will be a staple in the superstar tier of receivers for years to come.” While Collins is an emerging talent, his targets are under pressure with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. The good news is that Collins was very productive when Tank Dell was active (13.5 fantasy points from Week 1 to Week 12, low-end WR1 numbers) and then exploded for 126 yards per game in five healthy games without Dell. It remains to be seen how Diggs impacts the target pecking order, but given Stroud’s built-in chemistry with Collins and Dell, he may be the best real-world WR3 in the league.

After a QB1 finish in 2022–his first season WITHOUT Tyreek Hill–Patrick Mahomes had a disappointing QB7 finish last year. It was actually a bit worse than that as he had just the 14th-highest per-game average at his position. Obviously, the Chiefs went on to win their second consecutive Super Bowl, but his fantasy managers probably felt a bit jilted as Mahomes posted four-year lows in passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns. It remains to be seen if this is a blip in his career or the start of a trend, but the Chiefs did try to shore up the receiving corps, replacing Marquez Valdes-Scantling with the productive Hollywood Brown and the speedy Xavier Worthy. Rashee Rice is facing some offseason trouble, but the Chiefs now have appealing depth in the receiver room. Mahomes should bounce back with a top-five season.

D.J. Moore had an outstanding 2023 season, finishing as the fantasy WR7 after a WR19 finish the year before. Justin Fields is out, Caleb Williams is in, so Moore should be getting a quarterback upgrade. The Bears have a new OC, Shane Waldron, whose Seattle offenses finished 14th and 11th in passing yards in the last two seasons. The team also acquired target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted the talented Rome Odunze in the first round, so Moore’s target competition got a lot stiffer. Even with a quarterback and possible OC upgrade, it will be hard for Moore to overcome all the target competition to remain a fantasy WR1. His early ADP (WR18) seems reasonable, but given how well Allen played last year when healthy, it’s no sure thing that Moore leads this team in targets.

In his first season with the Lions, David Montgomery smashed his RB28 ADP by finishing as the fantasy RB14. Moreover, he missed a few games, so his per-game ranking (RB8) was even better. His ADP is RB19, so drafters obviously believe that Jahmyr Gibbs (who is going off the board as the RB5) is going to have a larger share of the backfield touches this season. A few splits to note: The duo played 15 games together, including the postseason. Montgomery averaged 16.8 touches and 14.2 (half-PPR) fantasy points while Gibbs averaged 13.7 touches and 13.7 fantasy points, so Montgomery outscored Gibbs in the 15 games they played together. In the last 12 games they played together, Gibbs turned 14.2 touches into 15.3 fantasy points, while Montgomery posted 15.0 touches and 12.7 fantasy points. So down the stretch, they were basically splitting the work and Gibbs was more productive on a per-touch basis. The 12.7 fantasy points per game that Montgomery averaged in their last 12 games together would have been the 18th-highest average at the position last season, so Montgomery’s RB19 ADP makes sense if we assume that those last 12 games are more predictive than the full 15-game sample. To sum up, Montgomery should have a 15-touch role and offer solid fantasy RB2 numbers. He would have midrange to high-end RB1 upside if Gibbs were to miss time.

DeVonta Smith was the WR18 after a WR10 finish the year before. He was the WR15 and WR21 on a per-game basis in 2022 and 2023, respectively. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator, so perhaps Smith sees a bump from the 7.0 targets per game he garnered last year.

Last season, George Kittle averaged 5.1 targets per game in 14 games with Deebo Samuel, and saw 18 targets in the two games Samuel missed. In the six games that Samuel has missed over the last two seasons, Kittle has averaged 5.2 receptions for 84 yards and 1.0 touchdown. He’s basically THE fantasy TE1 when Samuel is out and just another TE1 when Samuel is active. Keep in mind that Kittle is entering his age-31 season, though his advanced metrics are still elite.

In his ninth season, Amari Cooper set career-highs in receiving yards per game (83.3) and yards per reception (17.4) en route to a WR14 finish last year. He was the WR9 in 2022. Cooper is entering his 10th season, which is when receivers’ production tends to fall off of a cliff, per Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. Cooper’s splits with and without Deshaun Watson were similar, so that’s not much of a concern. Cooper’s career-highs last season are reason to be optimistic that his production won’t fall off too much in 2024. His WR27 ADP seems like a solid value given the age discount.

Trey McBride saw a bump in playing time in Week 8 and was the fantasy TE4 the rest of the way. He had the fourth-highest yards per route run (2.08) among tight ends in that span, and garnered the third-most targets (8.5 per game). The third-year tight end should serve as the No. 2 option behind rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., but Harrison’s arrival might put a dent in McBride’s heavy late-season usage.

Dalton Kincaid was the fantasy TE15 as a rookie, though he flashed TE1-type production when Dawson Knox was out of the lineup. In five games without Knox, Kincaid averaged 6.2 catches for 56 yards and 0.40 touchdowns on 7.4 targets per game. (He averaged 3.8-36-0.0 on 4.9 targets in 11 games with Knox, which is a bit worrisome since Knox is returning.) Yes, Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and Gabe Davis (81) are gone, so there are a ton of targets up for grabs. Kincaid should easily see 7-8 targets per game, but there’s no guarantee that will happen with Knox soaking up tight end snaps. Kincaid was 14th in yards per route run, though he was 10th from Week 8 to Week 13, while Knox was out. It would be coaching malpractice for the Bills to take Kincaid off the field consistently given the loss of Diggs and Davis, so I'm betting on a consistent uptick in usage. Also, while Kincaid has already broken out, tight ends tend to make their biggest leap from year one to year two.

The rookie only played two full games and was knocked out of two other games before halftime, but he still showed flashes of fantasy superstardom accounting for seven touchdowns in roughly 2.6 games worth of action. He posted the highest fantasy point per attempt (passing + rushing) in the league. The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman and drafted another weapon, Adonai Mitchell, and should have a healthy Jonathan Taylor in tow. Only time will tell if Richardson is more of an injury risk than other quarterbacks, but studies have shown that mobile quarterbacks aren’t injured at a higher rate than “pocket” quarterbacks.

One has to think that the Packers offered Aaron Jones more than $7 million for one season in a restructured deal, so this may be a spite signing for Jones as he'll try to stick it to his old team. Jones was outstanding down the stretch, gaining 135, 130, 141, 131, and 116 total yards in five "must-win" games. Talent-wise, he should easily lead the Minnesota backfield, but the Vikings will want to use Ty Chandler to keep Jones fresh and healthy. His arrival puts a pretty serious dent in Chandler's upside. Managers will definitely want to start Jones in Week 4 and Week 17, when the Vikings face the Packers.

Zamir White is slated for RB1 duties after Josh Jacobs moved onto Green Bay. White filled that role for four games late last season, gaining 83, 145, 106, and 121 total yards in consecutive games. He scored one touchdown, caught nine passes, and was the fantasy RB8 in that span. Among the 41 running backs with 25+ total carries in the last four weeks, White was ninth in yards after contact per attempt. He had the No. 20 rushing grade (out of 55 backs) in that span per PFF, and he fared well as a pass-blocker.

Stefon Diggs finished as the fantasy WR15 last season but saw the eighth-most targets, and that sort of usage is unlikely to follow him to Houston, where he joins a talented receiving corps which features Nico Collins and Tank Dell. This receiver room may be difficult to project on a weekly basis if everyone’s healthy. Now 30 years old, Diggs should continue to have productive football ahead of him, but as he enters his 10th season, he’s approaching a pretty significant production cliff according to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study. His WR22 ADP seems a bit optimistic for a soon-to-be 31-year-old receiver who is changing teams.

From a targets standpoint, Nabers should see all that he can handle, and he has the talent to produce. The problem is the quarterback situation, which currently features Daniel Jones, who is recovering from an ACL tear, and Drew Lock, who is on his third team in four seasons. As the top target in a suspect passing attack, Nabers will be in the WR3/WR4 mix this summer.

Flashback to the 2021 season: Kyle Pitts is a rookie and has a competent quarterback (Matt Ryan) and offensive coordinator (Dave Ragone) willing to feature him. He catches 68-of-110 targets for 1,026 yards and one score. (He should have caught 4.1 touchdowns, according to 4for4’s expected touchdowns per our data scientist Kevin Zatloukal.) That year, he finished as the TE5 and had the third-best fantasy season by a rookie tight end since the 2000 season. He posted the fourth-highest yards per route run at his position. The last two seasons have been major disappointments, but Pitts has been dealing with subpar quarterback play and a play-caller in Arthur Smith who often refused to feature his best players. Now he has Kirk Cousins throwing the ball and Zac Robinson (of Sean McVay’s coaching tree) calling the plays. I think he has a great chance to see 100+ targets and pick up where he left off as a rookie.

Tee Higgins wants a new contract but he and the Bengals were unable to come to terms so he will play under the franchise tag in 2024. He finished as the WR45 last year, but missed a few games and was the WR40 on a per-game basis. He was the WR12 in 2022, but that had a lot to do with Ja’Marr Chase missing five games that year. In 23 games with Chase over the last two years, Higgins has averaged 3.7 catches for 51 yards and 0.39 touchdowns on 6.2 targets per game. If we only look at splits with Chase and a healthy Joe Burrow, then Higgins’ averages are 4.1-54-0.39 on 6.6 targets per game. The resulting 9.9 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game equate to midrange WR4 numbers. Higgins has massive upside in the event of a Chase injury, but if Chase is healthy, Higgins is a fringe fantasy starter. The Bengals lost Tyler Boyd but added the talented Jermaine Burton, adding more pressure to Higgins’ targets.

In 16 games for the Eagles, D'Andre Swift totaled 1,263 total yards and six touchdowns on 268 touches. He began the year behind Kenneth Gainwell, but took over the starting job quickly once Gainwell missed time. He has a career 4.6 yards per carry and has excellent receiving chops which the Eagles mostly failed to utilize last season. Swift was the RB17 last season and the RB24 the year before, though he was the RB21 on a per-game basis in his last season with the Lions. Khalil Herbert (4.6 YPC) and Roschon Johnson (4.3 YPC) both ran well last year, though Herbert only played 12 games. The Bears running backs combined for 72 total catches, so Swift does have 40- or 50-catch upside once again. Given the size of the contract, Swift will certainly get the first crack at the Bears' RB1 job in 2024. Fantasy-wise, he'll be in the RB2 mix come draft season.

Over the past three seasons, Terry McLaurin has the 16th-most targets, 19th-most receptions, and the 14th-most yards. I’m mentioning this because he’s entering his age-29 season and is going off the board as the WR31, exactly where he finished last season. (He was the WR25 in 2021 and the WR18 in 2022.) He’s experiencing another quarterback change, but given Jayden Daniels' accuracy–as charted by Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception–this might be the best quarterback play of McLaurin’s career. My primary concern is that the Commanders go super run-heavy to limit Daniels’ exposure, but as the clear-cut WR1 for a mediocre team with a potentially accurate quarterback, I’m in on McLaurin at WR31.

In his seventh season, Chris Godwin turned 130 targets into 83 catches, 1,024 yards, and two touchdowns. The Bucs played him mostly outside (~38% slot) after he ran 70%+ of his routes out of the slot in both 2021 (WR12) and 2022 (WR20). They are reportedly moving him back to the slot this season, which is good news. Last year, Godwin averaged 1.71 fantasy points per slot target versus just 1.03 fantasy points per non-slot target, so moving back to the slot should boost his production at this point in his career. He may also benefit from positive touchdown regression as he only caught two touchdowns with an expectation of 5.3 touchdowns. Keep in mind that those top-20 fantasy finishes came with Tom Brady at quarterback, and the team’s passing pie as a whole is much smaller with Baker Mayfield under center. With Mayfield, Godwin looks like more of a WR3 than the fantasy WR2 he was with Brady.

Kyler Murray sat out the first nine games after tearing his ACL late in the 2023 season. From Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy QB10. That mirrored the QB8 production he provided in the 10 games prior to his injury in 2022. He was the QB10 in 2021 but had the fourth-highest per-game average that year. Hollywood Brown has been replaced by Marvin Harrison Jr., which looks like an upgrade. Murray also has other competent weapons like Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch. Murray’s rushing was down a little when compared to pre-injury 2022, and he should be fully healthy heading into the 2024 season. He’s a solid QB1.

Last season, Dak Prescott finished as the fantasy QB4 and had the fifth-highest per-game average. He missed some time in 2022, but had the 13th-highest per-game average, and he was the QB9 in 2021. So he has a long history of starter-level numbers. The Cowboys return most of Prescott’s weapons, losing Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup to free agency. The key receivers–breakout star CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson–are all back. Dallas lost some talent along the offensive line, but they used premium draft capital to shore up the unit. Prescott should have another solid season.

Jake Ferguson was one of my favorite late-round tight ends last year and he didn’t disappoint, finishing TE8 versus a TE23 positional ADP. Our own Matt Okada found that Ferguson should have scored an additional 3.6 touchdowns to meet his expected touchdown opportunity. We saw some regression immediately after the season as he caught three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ playoff loss to the Packers. Had he scored an additional 3.8 touchdowns he would have finished TE6 instead of TE8. (He led his position with 12 targets inside the 10-yard line.) As the TE9 off the board, Ferguson is probably the last TE1-type that I’d feel comfortable rolling with as my only tight end.

After an ACL tear derailed his second season, Williams played nearly a full slate of games in 2023, finishing as the fantasy RB31. He left Week 4 after only eight snaps, so when that game is removed, his 11.7 points per game average would have been the 23rd-highest last season. His advanced metrics weren’t particularly good, but that’s not surprising since it was his first season post-ACL. He was first in broken tackles per rush as a rookie, so the Broncos are surely hoping he can get back to that early-career rushing form. Per The Athletic, Williams will reportedly have to “earn the starting job in camp,” so the Denver backfield is one to monitor this summer.

The conventional wisdom was that Tyjae Spears would take over the starting job with Derrick Henry moving on, but the Titans moved quickly in free agency to lock up Tony Pollard, who had a disappointing fantasy season in 2023. He was drafted RB6 but finished RB18 coming off a broken leg in January of 2023. There is reason to believe that Pollard’s explosiveness could return in his second full season after the injury. Entering the 2023 season, he was one of the most efficient and exciting backs in the game, but the fantasy community soured on him quickly as he failed to provide first-round production. He averaged 5.3 YPC on 323 combined carries in 2021 and 2022, leading the league in yards after contact per attempt in 2022. Spears isn’t going anywhere, so the two backs will likely form a 1-2 punch for the Titans in 2024.

Marquise Brown enters his age-27 season on the heels of a disappointing 51-574-4, 101-target season, a far cry from the 91-1008-6 that he posted in his final season with the Ravens in 2021. Brown is a sizable upgrade over the recently-released Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Despite a second consecutive Super Bowl win, the Chiefs' passing game had a down year, so there is certainly room for the passing pie to grow, making room for Brown, Rice's ascension, rookie Xavier Worthy, and another quality year from Travis Kelce.

Zack Moss filled in admirably for an injured Jonathan Taylor. In the eight games where Moss played at least half the snaps, he averaged 20.9 touches for 94 yards (4.12 yards per carry), and 0.63 touchdowns. The resulting 14.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) would have been the eighth-highest last year (ahead of David Montgomery and just behind Jahmyr Gibbs). Moss will likely cede some touches to Chase Brown, who had 50+ total yards in four of his last six games.

Jaylen Warren (RB24) finished two spots ahead of his backfield mate, Najee Harris (RB26), and if we just look at the back half of the season, Warren was the fantasy RB19 from Week 10 to Week 18. His touches increased from 10.6 to 13.9 when comparing the first half of the season to the second half. That increased workload may or may not carry over now that there’s a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) in town. Smith is known to use his players in frustrating ways from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, Warren’s increased usage did not come at Harris’s expense. Harris saw his touches increase from 14.4 to 18.8 from the first half to the second half of the season. (Harris/Warren combined to average 25.0 touches from Week 1 to Week 8 compared to 32.7 touches from Week 9 to Week 18, so Pittsburgh was much more RB-oriented in the back half of the season.) The Steelers figure to be very run-heavy under Smith so there should be room for both Warren and Harris in 15+ touch roles.

Brooks is recovering from a "clean" ACL tear (per Ian Rapoport) and should be ready to play in July. He should quickly beat out the solid-but-not-spectacular Chuba Hubbard and 2023 free agent disappointment Miles Sanders to earn the RB1 job. His upside is capped by the Carolina offense which needs to take a big step forward if it's going to support a bona fide fantasy RB1. I expect his ADP will land in the fifth/sixth round since Brooks is a good bet to see 15+ touches per game as a rookie. The last six second-round running backs who started at least 11 games as rookies averaged 268 touches for 1,286 yards and 9.2 touchdowns.

As a rookie, Jordan Addison finished as the fantasy WR23 thanks in large part to his 10 touchdown catches, though his yardage (911) was third among rookies behind Puka Nacua (1,486) and Rashee Rice (938). He was arrested in early July for suspicion of DUI, which could lead to a suspension. He pled guilty to misdemeanor (140 MPH) speeding charges last summer. In addition to a possible (2-4 game?) suspension, Addison is also dealing with a quarterback change, as some combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will try to replace Kirk Cousins’ 291 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Addison’s production took a nosedive after Cousins was done for the year. He averaged 4.5-60-0.88 with Cousins and just 3.8-48-0.28 with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. That’s a 36% drop in fantasy production.

Jameson Williams has had a slow start to his career, but that was to be expected since he tore his ACL in the National Championship Game during his final college season. He only played six games as a rookie, catching 1-of-9 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding one carry for 40 yards. (These ridiculous numbers underline both his big-play ability and his inconsistency.) In his second season, after serving a six-game gambling suspension, he caught 24-of-42 targets for 354 yards and two scores while adding three carries for 29 yards and a touchdown. HC Dan Campbell said in February that Williams will “push to be a full-time starter” this season, and during spring practices Williams has been a “man on a mission.” On the plus side, the former No. 12 overall pick has elite speed and with Josh Reynolds moving on, there are snaps and targets up for grabs in a great offense. On the flip side, he’ll at best be the third option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor. He might be a “better in best ball” option. Regardless, given his talent and upside, he’s worth a pick in the double-digit rounds.

Vegas wasn’t the greatest landing spot for Bowers, who has Gardner Minshew at quarterback and is competing with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer for targets. Lauded as one of the best–if not THE best–tight end prospect ever, Bowers should play ahead of Mayer and the Raiders would be wise to use him early and often. GM Tom Telesco described Bowers as a “hybrid receiver,” while HC Antonio Pierce said that Bowers was “probably the most dynamic player in college football at the tight end position in a long time.” So it sounds like the Raiders know they have a playmaker in Bowers and will scheme him touches.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon compared Odunze to Davante Adams, calling him "a complete player who has no weaknesses in his game." However, targets are going to be at a premium until either D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen move on, so he is unlikely to make the same immediate impact as Marvin Harrison Jr. will in Arizona. Odunze will be in the WR3/WR4 mix as the likely third option when Moore and Allen are healthy, though all three players are new to Caleb Williams. The Bears can afford to bring Odunze along slowly with Moore and Allen in the fold. His fantasy value would skyrocket if either player were to miss any time.

Last year, Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception identified C.J. Stroud as the most accurate passer in last year's draft class. Guess who charted the best this year? That's right, the so-called "running quarterback" Jayden Daniels. Klassen does have some reservations about Daniels' willingness to throw over the middle of the field, but two things are true: 1) Daniels is an accurate passer, and 2) he's going to rack up the rushing yards. My rookie quarterback model predicts 43.9 rushing yards per game for Daniels, which is the third-highest expectation in the 97-player sample behind only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. Jackson didn't start until Week 11 of his rookie season, but he was the fantasy QB8 the rest of the way. Newton was the QB3 as a rookie. Rounding out the top five in expected rushing yards were Jalen Hurts (QB8 in his first season as the starter) and Vince Young (QB9 as a rookie). See where this is headed?

In his sixth season, Courtland Sutton finished as the WR32, driven by a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns. (He had never caught more than six touchdowns in a season.) Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Browns, so that leaves Sutton as the no-brainer top option for rookie Bo Nix, assuming he’s the starter. The Broncos also have Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham on the roster. Sutton is looking for a new contract and is a potential camp holdout, so that’s a situation to monitor. As it stands, Sutton looks like the best receiving option in what’s shaping up to be a below average passing attack.

At first glance, Worthy's targets may be initially blocked by Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown, but Kelce is no spring chicken, Rice is dealing with legal issues that may result in a multi-game suspension, and Brown is on a one-year deal. Not since Tyreek Hill have the Chiefs had a receiver with this kind of speed (4.21 40-yard dash), and HC Andy Reid will scheme ways to use it from the get-go.

Austin Ekeler had 164 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 even though he left early with a high-ankle sprain. He returned in Week 6 and had a run of big games from Week 8 to Week 10, gaining 308 total yards and scoring four touchdowns in that stretch. In his last eight games, he only cleared 75 total yards twice, finishing as the RB29 for the year and the RB23 on a per-game basis. As he enters his age-29 season, he's unlikely to wrest the early-down role from Brian Robinson, but he's likely to operate as the primary pass-catcher out of the Washington backfield.

Dallas Goedert missed three games but still finished TE14. He was tied with Trey McBride for the 11th-highest per game average. In 2022, he had the fifth-highest per game average, but missed five games. Last season, he averaged 6.2 targets per game, which was the seventh-most among tight ends. He’s a key cog in the Philadelphia passing attack, though he’s typically the third option behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. At 29 years old, I’m expecting another year of solid production, but those missed games are piling up.

Tua Tagovailoa overcame lingering concussion concerns to finish as the fantasy QB10 in 2023. He posted the 11th-highest per-game average in 2022, so his fringe-QB1 ADP seems completely justified. He has one of the best receiving corps in the league, featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham, Malik Washington, and Jonnu Smith–and one of the best play-callers in the league in head coach Mike McDaniel. Another QB1 season looks like a good bet.

In his second season, Shaheed increased his catches (28 to 46), his receiving yards (488 to 719), and touchdowns (2 to 5), while adding 723 yards as a returner. He posted a stellar 2.59 yards per route run as a rookie, and followed that up with a solid (if unspectacular) 1.67 yards per route run last season (40th out of 102 eligible receivers). He played roughly 58% of the snaps last season, but that number jumped to 63% in his last six non-injury games. With Michael Thomas out of the way, Shaheed could be a full-time player in 2024, and he should a big part of a more productive and inventive offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Dalton Schultz proved to be a good value at the always dicey tight end position in 2023. He was drafted as the TE15 but turned in TE10 numbers despite missing a couple of games. C.J. Stroud was obviously much better than expected, which helped, but Schultz did not appear to be a top-two (or even top-three?) option when Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown were all healthy. Despite finishing as a top-10 tight end, he saw four or fewer targets in six of his 15 games played. The Texans saw enough to value Schultz at $36 million over three years. He’s a baseline option at the position heading into 2024.

In his ninth season, Tyler Lockett’s efficiency numbers were down across the board. He set a six-year low in yards per game, a three-year low in yards per catch, and a six-year low in yards per route run. He finished the season as the fantasy WR34 and is going off the board as the WR50. Drafters are favoring Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Lockett, and it makes some sense given Lockett’s age and a somewhat disappointing 2023 season. New OC Ryan Grubb should be able to breathe some life into the offense, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Lockett is once again able to post WR3-type numbers.

In his third season, Joshua Palmer finished as the WR67, though he missed several games and posted the 47th-highest per-game average (8.9 half-PPR points per game). He set career-highs in yards per game (58.1), yards per catch (15.3), and yards per route run (1.71, 38th out of 102 eligible receivers). When Matt Harmon charted Palmer’s rookie season and found that he posted above average success rates on five of the 10 routes on Reception Perception route tree, even if his overall numbers weren’t great. Anyway, it’s two years later and Palmer is coming off of a season where he played at a 65-988-3.4 (WR34) pace. Of his 10 games, Mike Williams played in three, and Keenan Allen played in four. Palmer averaged 74 yards in the four games he played with Allen and without Williams, and one of those games was cut short due to injury. In the three games that he played without both Allen and Williams, Palmer posted 113, 47, and 44 yards, a 68-yard average. So without Williams, Palmer played at a 73-1209-2.4 pace. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. With Allen and Williams gone, Palmer has an opportunity to step into the WR1 role. His primary competition appears to be Ladd McConkey, but who knows, maybe Quentin Johnston or D.J. Chark will have something to say about it. My money is on McConkey/Palmer as the WR1/WR2, but not necessarily in that order. Palmer could easily garner more targets than a rookie who wasn’t all that productive in college. The Chargers will very likely be much more run-heavy under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, so the passing pie will be smaller for Justin Herbert and his receivers. Still, if Palmer is a regular contributor seeing 6-8 targets per game, he could be a good fantasy asset, especially since he’s being drafted as a low-end WR5.

With Austin Ekeler vacating 230 touches, the Chargers had a big need at running back and Gus Edwards can run the ball. Prior to 2023, Edwards had never averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry, though he posted a career-low 4.1 yards per carry last season. Jim Harbaugh likes to run the ball, so Edwards could be the centerpiece of the rushing attack or perhaps part of a 1-2 punch in the backfield with either J.K. Dobbins or rookie Kimani Vidal. Entering his age-29 season, he should have a couple of productive seasons left.

After a very encouraging QB8 finish in his second season, Lawrence’s numbers regressed a bit in 2023, resulting in a QB14 fantasy finish (and the 19th-highest per game average). As the 17th quarterback off the board, Lawrence is an intriguing late-round option since he has already proven that he has top-10 upside. He lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back, and they are joined by talented rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent Gabe Davis. He also adds about 21 yards rushing per game, giving him a solid fantasy floor. Jaguars receivers had the seventh-most drops, so there was still some meat on the bone for Lawrence and Co.

Chase Brown has been trending up this offseason and is a good back to target in the double-digit rounds. The Bengals let Joe Mixon walk but signed Zack Moss to a two-year deal worth $8 million. My initial thought was that Moss would simply step into Mixon’s workload since he handled a boatload of touches in Indianapolis while Jonathan Taylor was out and the Bengals gave him a sizable contract. But there has been a steady drumbeat of positive news for Brown and there is even some discussion about Brown being the RB1a to Moss as the RB1b. While he was electric as a receiver, Brown stunk as a runner last season–his PFF rush grade was 113th out of 129 backs last season, while Moss was a solid 53rd. (Brown did rush for 1,643 yards in his final season at Illinois.) Moss is also listed as the team’s RB1 on their depth chart, though Brown has been seeing more reps with the starters in recent practices.

Justin Herbert finished QB16 last season, but had the 13th-highest per-game average. He was the QB12 in 2022 with the 17th-highest per-game average. So after a QB9 and a QB2 finish in his first two seasons, he has settled into high-end QB2-type territory (#13-#18) in the last two seasons. He has lost his top four options–Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett–so his key returners are Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. The Chargers did draft Ladd McConkey and they signed Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly, but obviously the team lost a lot of receiving talent. New HC Jim Harbaugh has also signaled that his offense is going to be run-heavy, so it’s safe to say that things aren’t exactly lining up for Herbert to have a big fantasy season.

The fourth-year tight end had a great season, racking up 719 yards and six touchdowns on 73 catches, but there is reason for concern heading into 2024. The Bears added target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze in the first round, and that means Kmet is likely to be the fourth option (at best) instead of the second option behind D.J. Moore. The Bears also signed Gerald Everett, who could eat into Kmet’s targets as well.

Trevor Lawrence did own the eighth-highest adjusted completion percentage on deep balls (per PFF) last season, so in theory this will be a good match for Gabe Davis's deep-ball ability. Davis has a propensity to find the end zone, but his inconsistency has made him a frustrating fantasy start. (I said out loud in the middle of last season that I would only draft Davis in best ball formats moving forward.) He’ll be the third option behind Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

Of all the tight ends, Taysom Hill’s fantasy value depends most on the scoring format in question. In standard scoring, he was the TE7 last year. In half-PPR and full-PPR, he was the TE10 and TE15, respectively. With a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak) in town, Hill’s role is very much up in the air, but HC Dennis Allen said that it would be “very similar to what we’ve seen in the past.” Hill said that he had a “positive” conversation with Kubiak about his new role, so he seems like he’ll be content with his usage. Of course, Hill is not even TE-eligible in some leagues, but that’s where we rank/project him since that’s the only real position that he’s startable.

Through the first 11 weeks, prior to his abdomen injury, Luke Musgrave was the fantasy TE21. He returned late in the season and posted the second-most receptions (6) and the second-most receiving yards (66) in the Packers’ two playoff games. Tucker Kraft played very well in Musgrave’s absence, but Musgrave has the inside track to start this season as Kraft is missing time recovering from a pectoral injury.

The Bengals let Irv Smith walk and signed Mike Gesicki to shore up the tight end room, but don’t count out Tanner Hudson. Last season, he led the team’s tight ends with 39 catches for 352 yards and a touchdown, and finished ninth among tight ends in yards per route run.

Ja’Lynn Polk has second-round draft capital and joins arguably the worst receiver room in the league, so a big role for the rookie is possible. He charted very well at Reception Perception and Matt Harmon says there is “so much to like” about Polk’s game. He’s definitely a player I’m monitoring this summer.

In his second season, Darnell Mooney caught 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns and added 32 yards and a touchdown as a runner. He then posted 40-493-2 in 2022–Justin Fields' first season as the starter–and 31-414-1 in 2023--taking a backseat to D.J. Moore. He's likely to operate as the Falcons' WR2 but could be the third or fourth option in the passing game behind Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. He should be in the WR5 mix as he tries to get his career back on track.

Last season, Antonio Gibson rushed for a career-low 265 yards while gaining a career-high 389 yards as a receiver. He will probably serve as the primary backup to Rhamondre Stevenson. Still in his prime, his 1,331-yard season (in 2021) seems like a long time ago.

Michael Wilson will likely be the third option behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but there was a lot to like about his rookie season. He caught 38 passes for 565 yards and three scores, and played at a 740-yard pace. His yards per route run (1.36) were middle of the pack among the receivers in their first three seasons with at least 35 targets. If he can stay healthy, he should be able to produce 700+ yards and 4-6 touchdowns alongside Harrison and McBride.

Will Levis took over as the Titans’ starter in Week 8. In the next eight games, he averaged 224 yards and 1.0 touchdown, with 7.1 rushing yards and 0.13 rushing touchdowns per game. He was the QB15 in that span but owned the 29th-highest per game average. On the bright side, his 7.4 yards per attempt was a solid mark and Derrick Klassen of Reception Perception wrote that Levis brings “a degree of arm talent and pocket toughness that isn’t easy to come by.” He doesn’t bring much as a rusher, but with Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd joining DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has an experienced and talented receiving corps. It wouldn’t be surprising if he were to work his way into the weekly streaming conversation as the season wears on.

Some may want to write off Bryce Young after a poor rookie season, but HC Dave Canales might be a quarterback-whisperer. He was instrumental in the career resurgences of both Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa. Young’s rookie season probably couldn’t have gone much worse. He threw for a paltry 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and posted an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt. But in fairness, his top weapons were 33-year-old Adam Thielen (137 targets), rookie Jonathan Mingo (85), and D.J. Chark (27). The Panthers didn’t exactly set the rookie up for success, but with the addition of Canales and the incredible route-running of Diontae Johnson, things are looking up.

Diontae Johnson has moved on, so there are snaps and targets available in the Steelers' WR room. Roman Wilson didn't fare particularly well in Harmon's charting, finishing last among the charted rookies in overall Success Rate. Calvin Austin III is looking for a bigger role, and the Steelers have added Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins and Van Jefferson this offseason. The WR2 job is up for grabs--can Wilson win it?

The Jets have their all-level stud in Garrett Wilson and signed downfield threat Mike Williams in free agency. Corley could serve as a gadget threat out of the slot, though he'll have to beat out Aaron Rodgers-favorite Allen Lazard and the promising Xavier Gipson to get on the field. I don't think the odds are good that he'll be a fantasy factor as a rookie, but stranger things have happened.

The Broncos will be paying the vast majority of Russell Wilson's salary, so this is a low-risk signing for the Steelers. Wilson threw for 3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns against only eight interceptions in 15 games last season. George Pickens should benefit from Wilson's deep ball, though with new OC Arthur Smith designing the offense, it's likely to be a run-heavy attack. Wilson is an intriguing QB2/QB3 type but he’ll have to hold off Justin Fields.