Top 200 Value Based Rankings

CeeDee Lamb finished as the fantasy WR1 last year though he was second (to Tyreek Hill) in per-game scoring. He was the WR6 with the eighth-highest per-game average in 2022. Lamb is entering his age-25 season and should have another huge year as his environment (role, quarterback, play-caller) are all unchanged. The only concern is his contract situation but the Cowboys should be able to sort that out by training camp.

Last season, Tyreek Hill finished as the fantasy WR2, though he had the highest per-game average (19.9 fantasy points per game) at his position. He was the fantasy WR2 in 2022 as well, and had the third-highest per-game average. He’s entering his age-30 season, which is his ninth-season in the league. According to Ryan Heath’s excellent Age Curves study, receivers see a slight decline in production in their ninth season before a much bigger drop in their 10th year. I’m not worried about Hill’s age at all, other than the tendency for older players to come down with nagging injuries more frequently than their younger counterparts. He’s a rock-sold WR1.

Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as the fantasy WR3 with the fourth-highest per-game average at his position. He was the fantasy WR8 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game production. As he enters his fourth season his stock is as high as ever. His environment (i.e. quarterback, role, play-caller) are all unchanged, so I’m expecting another monster year from the “Sun God.”

Justin Jefferson missed several games with a bad hamstring injury, so he finished as the WR38, but had the fifth-best per-game average. When his injury game (71% snaps) and his first game back (18% snaps) are removed, he averaged 20.0 fantasy points in eight full games, and the last four of those games–7-84, 6-141-1, 5-59, and 12-192-1–were without Kirk Cousins. That’s important since Cousins is now in Atlanta and Jefferson will be catching passes from Sam Darnold and/or J.J. McCarthy. The vast majority of those Week 15 to Week 18 targets were from the capable Nick Mullens (9.1 yards per attempt, 5.2% touchdown rate), so it makes sense that Jefferson’s numbers didn’t dip much when Cousins was out of the picture. He averaged 8.3-136-0.75 on 11.8 targets per game in four games with Cousins and 7.5-119-0.50 on 11.0 targets in four games without Cousins. Either way, he was posting overall WR1-WR3 type numbers with or without Cousins. Jefferson was the overall WR1 in 2022, so there’s upside with him if he’s going off the board WR3 or WR4. The issue is that unlike the other receivers going in the top six, he’s undergoing a quarterback change. The Vikings do have two decent options in Darnold and McCarthy, so if one isn’t getting it done, the other might. There’s a bit of risk here, but Jefferson should have a high-end WR1 season regardless of Cousins’ departure.

A.J. Brown finished the 2023 season as the fantasy WR5 with the eighth-highest per-game average. He was the WR4 the year before and had the seventh-highest per-game average, so he has a recent history of midrange to high-end WR1 production. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator. Brown should once again post solid WR1 numbers.

The Rams drafted Blake Corum to take some of the load off of Kyren Williams, but I still think Williams is a good bet for a top-five season. He was the RB2 on a per-game basis while handling 21.7 of the team’s 28.0 backfield touches in his 12 games played. Even if his touches fall to the 18.0-19.0 range–or 64% to 68% of the team’s backfield touches–he’s still looking at 16.5-17.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good enough to remain the RB2 behind McCaffrey.

With Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore gone, the Cardinals have the fifth-most vacated targets (217) and Harrison will soak up most of them. He's landing in a fantastic situation from an opportunity and quarterback standpoint and will immediately be in the fantasy WR2 mix with upside from there. Matt Harmon compared Harrison’s profile to Ja’Marr Chase coming out of college and added that Harrison “easily was one of the best prospects” he has charted for Reception Perception.

Sam LaPorta finished as the fantasy TE1 as a rookie, which is an incredible accomplishment given the history of rookies at the position. It’s unusual for rookie tight ends to find immediate success, but LaPorta posted 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those were the most catches, the second-most yards (to Kyle Pitts), and the most touchdowns (tied with Rob Gronkowski) among rookie tight ends since 2003. LaPorta’s position-leading 196.3 half-PPR fantasy points were just the 19th-most by a tight end since 2010. He’s a good bet to repeat as the TE1 since he should only get better in his second season, and his excellent environment in the Detroit offense is unchanged.

Puka Nacua posted 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns as a rare “league-winner” in his rookie season. His numbers did take a significant dip in the 12 games that Cooper Kupp was active. He averaged 8.6-108-0.40 on 11.6 targets per game in five games that Kupp missed. In the 12 games that Kupp played, Nacua averaged 5.2-79-0.33 on 8.4 targets per game. That’s the difference between elite, top-five type numbers and fringe WR1 production. If Kupp is healthy, Nacua’s WR7 ADP may be wishful thinking. Nacua has overall WR1 upside if Kupp were to miss any more time.

In his second season, Chris Olave finished as the fantasy WR21, though he would have finished a few spots higher had he not missed a game. He was the WR25 as a rookie. His targets increased from 7.6 in 2022 to 9.0 per game last season. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception: “Playing in what quietly may have been the worst conceptual offense in the NFL with a limited quarterback, Olave showed off many traits you want to see from a player who can jump into the superstar tier of receivers.” The good news is that the Saints have a new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who ran a Vikings offense in 2021 that generated the 11th-most passing yards and the ninth-most passing touchdowns. For the last eight games of the 2022 season, Kubiak also took over play-calling for the Broncos, and the team generated the 21st-most passing yards and the 14th-most touchdowns after finishing 15th and 31st, respectively, prior to Kubiak taking over play-calling duties. So there is optimism that Olave will be playing in a significantly better offense and that should help his bottom line.

As a rookie, De’Von Achane finished as the fantasy RB22 while missing six games. He posted the fourth-highest per-game average, just behind his teammate Raheem Mostert. He led the league in yards before contact per attempt (4.7), yards after contact per attempt (3.1), and was fourth in broken tackles per attempt (0.126). He was first in PFF’s rush grade and 13th in receiving grade. He’s a star in the making and has overall RB1 upside, but his workload is a concern. The 32-year-old Mostert is still around and should absorb 10-15 carries if he remains healthy. Achane only averaged 11.2 touches in the nine games he played with Mostert, but he did see an average of 13.9 touches in seven games when his first game (two touches in Week 2 vs. NE) and his injury game (two touches in Week 11 vs. LV) are removed. He averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in those seven games, which is actually more than the 17.2 fantasy points he averaged in the two games that Mostert missed. If Achane sees around 14 touches per game and can stay healthy, he’s going to finish as a solid fantasy RB1. Any increase in touches could lead to a top-three type season.

Drake London finished as the WR40 last season while dealing with suspect quarterback play and questionable usage thanks to run-happy Arthur Smith. Kirk Cousins and former Rams OC Zac Robinson in the fold, the Falcons’ passing game should be more voluminous and more efficient. Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles in his right (plant) foot, but if he’s good to go, he provided 19.1% more fantasy points to his receivers than the Atlanta quarterbacks did last year. The Rams also attempted 10% more passes last season, so when those factors are combined, the Falcons’ receivers could be looking at a 31% increase in fantasy points. Such an increase would have put London at WR21. A breakout is forthcoming.

Jalen Hurts finished as the QB2 (behind Josh Allen) in 2023 after finishing as the QB3 (behind Patrick Mahomes and Allen) the year before, though he had the highest per-game average (26.4) in 2022. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all return, and Saquon Barkley replaces D’Andre Swift at running back. There’s an argument that Barkley could eat into Hurts’s rushing touchdowns, but with 10, 13, and 15 rushing touchdowns for Hurts in the last three years, that doesn’t seem likely. He’s still their best option at the goal line.

Cooper Kupp missed the first four games with a hamstring injury, and posted 8-118 and 7-148-1 in his first two games back before six-straight games with less than 50 yards receiving. In his 11 non-injury games, Kupp averaged 5.3-66-0.45 on 8.5 targets per game, which is a far cry from the 8.5-106-0.85 on 11.1 targets that he averaged from 2021-2022. Some of the decline may be age- or injury-related, and the arrival of a bona fide weapon, Puka Nacua, may also be playing a factor. Still, the 12.1 fantasy points that Kupp averaged in those 11 non-injury games equate to midrange WR2 numbers, and that’s where Kupp is being drafted (WR20) right now. For a player who probably still has WR1-type upside if fully healthy and rolling, Kupp is an intriguing fourth round pick.

Josh Jacobs finished the season as the RB23, but missed a few games late in the year. He was the RB19 on a per-game basis. Jacobs was the fantasy RB3 in 2022. Jacobs could see a massive workload if he can remain healthy, though the Packers have implied that they want to get rookie MarShawn Lloyd involved.

Nico Collins had a breakout season, posting 80-1297-8 on 109 targets, finishing as the fantasy WR17. He fared well in Matt Harmon’s charting at Reception Perception: “As long as he just sustains this level of play, Collins will be a staple in the superstar tier of receivers for years to come.” While Collins is an emerging talent, his targets are under pressure with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. The good news is that Collins was very productive when Tank Dell was active (13.5 fantasy points from Week 1 to Week 12, low-end WR1 numbers) and then exploded for 126 yards per game in five healthy games without Dell. It remains to be seen how Diggs impacts the target pecking order, but given Stroud’s built-in chemistry with Collins and Dell, he may be the best real-world WR3 in the league.

DK Metcalf turned in a WR15 season after finishing WR17 the year before. His targets declined from 8.3 per game in 2022 to 7.5 per game last year. New OC Ryan Grubb brings his efficient scheme from the University of Washington, so the offense should be better and perhaps more pass-happy. Geno Smith has solid deep-ball accuracy as well. Metcalf is shaping up to be a rock-solid fantasy WR2 (with low-end WR1 upside) yet again.

Mark Andrews was the TE4 on a per-game basis and the TE3, T.J. Hockenson, may miss the start of the season as he recovers from an ACL tear. Entering his age-29 season, Andrews should be fully healthy after missing a big chunk of time late last season with a nasty ankle injury. Since his rookie season, he has never averaged less than 50 yards per game and has averaged 0.48 touchdowns per game in his last three seasons. If he can play 16 games at those rates, he’s looking at 800 yards and 7.7 touchdowns.

DeVonta Smith was the WR18 after a WR10 finish the year before. He was the WR15 and WR21 on a per-game basis in 2022 and 2023, respectively. His environment is largely unchanged, though the Eagles hired Kellen Moore to run the offense. Moore’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing yardage in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator, so perhaps Smith sees a bump from the 7.0 targets per game he garnered last year.

Dalton Kincaid was the fantasy TE15 as a rookie, though he flashed TE1-type production when Dawson Knox was out of the lineup. In five games without Knox, Kincaid averaged 6.2 catches for 56 yards and 0.40 touchdowns on 7.4 targets per game. (He averaged 3.8-36-0.0 on 4.9 targets in 11 games with Knox, which is a bit worrisome since Knox is returning.) Yes, Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and Gabe Davis (81) are gone, so there are a ton of targets up for grabs. Kincaid should easily see 7-8 targets per game, but there’s no guarantee that will happen with Knox soaking up tight end snaps. Kincaid was 14th in yards per route run, though he was 10th from Week 8 to Week 13, while Knox was out. It would be coaching malpractice for the Bills to take Kincaid off the field consistently given the loss of Diggs and Davis, so I'm betting on a consistent uptick in usage. Also, while Kincaid has already broken out, tight ends tend to make their biggest leap from year one to year two.

Lamar Jackson finished as the fantasy QB3 in 2023 and had the third-highest per-game average. He missed some time in both 2021 and 2022, but had the eighth-highest and the fifth-highest per-game averages, respectively. His best season was back in 2019 when he finished as the QB1. Odell Beckham has moved on, but the Ravens are expecting Rashod Bateman to pick up the slack. HC John Harbaugh singled Bateman out as a player he expects to make a leap in 2024. Jackson should be a rock-solid top-five option at the position, but appears to lack the rushing touchdown upside with only 10 rushing scores in the last three seasons. Derrick Henry is now in the fold, so the Ravens don’t have much incentive to expose the 215-lb Jackson around the goal line.

Kenneth Walker finished as the RB20 in half-PPR formats, though he had the 18th-highest per-game average. In 2022, he was the RB19, but really didn’t see lead back snaps until Week 5. From that point on, he was the fantasy RB7. In that stretch, he averaged 19.5 touches per game, but after the arrival of Zach Charbonnet, he averaged just 16.5 touches in 2023. He has RB1 upside, but Charbonnet’s presence caps his upside.

From a targets standpoint, Nabers should see all that he can handle, and he has the talent to produce. The problem is the quarterback situation, which currently features Daniel Jones, who is recovering from an ACL tear, and Drew Lock, who is on his third team in four seasons. As the top target in a suspect passing attack, Nabers will be in the WR3/WR4 mix this summer.

Joe Mixon is coming off a relatively quiet RB7 finish. He was RB13 on a per-game basis. He will replace Devin Singletary as the Texans' RB1, though Dameon Pierce may have something to say about it. Mixon hasn't cleared 4.1 yards per carry since 2018, but given his workload–19.4 touches per game in the last three seasons–he's been able to compile big numbers. He'll be in the RB2 mix as he enters his age-28 season.

As a rookie, Zay Flowers was the fantasy WR27 but was the WR34 on a per-game basis. The Ravens let Odell Beckham walk, and didn’t really replace him, so the team is likely to have Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor as its top three receivers. Flowers should see plenty of targets and become a more consistent weapon in his second season.

Tank Dell finished his rookie season as the fantasy WR36, though he missed six games and left early in two others. In his nine full games, he averaged 4.9 catches for 72 yards and 0.78 touchdowns on 7.9 targets per game. The resulting 15.0 fantasy points per game would have been the seventh-most at his position, so there may be some value at his WR26 ADP. Drafters are likely fading him due to the arrival of Stefon Diggs, who will garner targets one way or another. Dell fractured his fibula in early December but is expected to be fine by training camp.

Evan Engram led all tight ends in targets (143), catching 114 passes for 963 yards and four scores. Calvin Ridley was replaced by rookie Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis, so Engram’s role should be relatively unchanged. In other words, he might lead his position in targets again. He turns 30 in September, so a drop in production is possible, but far from certain.

In his second season, George Pickens posted 63-1140-5 on 106 targets, and was the fantasy WR20. He was the WR27 on a per-game basis. This was with Diontae Johnson garnering 87 targets in 13 games, and now Johnson has moved on to Carolina. Pittsburgh quarterbacks offered 1.15 (half-PPR) fantasy points per target to their receiving corps in 2023. Both Russell Wilson (1.37 fantasy points per target, +19%) and Justin Fields (1.26, +10%) exceeded that number, so Pickens should enjoy improved quarterback play this season whoever starts for the Steelers. Simply applying those increased efficiency numbers to Pickens’ 2023 production yields a finish in the WR9-WR14 range, so there is some optimism that the improved quarterback play could result in a low-end WR1 finish for the third-year receiver. Of course, this assumes that he and Wilson/Fields have a good rapport and that he sees a similar number of targets (106). The latter shouldn’t be a concern, but it is thanks to the arrival of new OC Arthur Smith, who has a history of using his star players in frustrating ways. The good news is that Drake London (6.9 targets per game in both 2022 and 2023), Kyle Pitts (6.5 per game in 2021), and A.J. Brown (7.6 per game in 2020) all saw a similar workload under Smith as Pickens did last season. Unfortunately, London (WR40, WR38) and Pitts (TE5/WR32) failed to deliver WR1/WR2-type numbers, though Brown managed a WR12 finish in Smith’s last season running the Tennessee offense. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception wrote, “I like him as a player and recognize his improvement but his film leaves you with questions about whether he can be a guy a healthy NFL offense can funnel 25 to 30% of the passing targets through.”

One has to think that the Packers offered Aaron Jones more than $7 million for one season in a restructured deal, so this may be a spite signing for Jones as he'll try to stick it to his old team. Jones was outstanding down the stretch, gaining 135, 130, 141, 131, and 116 total yards in five "must-win" games. Talent-wise, he should easily lead the Minnesota backfield, but the Vikings will want to use Ty Chandler to keep Jones fresh and healthy. His arrival puts a pretty serious dent in Chandler's upside. Managers will definitely want to start Jones in Week 4 and Week 17, when the Vikings face the Packers.

The rookie only played two full games and was knocked out of two other games before halftime, but he still showed flashes of fantasy superstardom accounting for seven touchdowns in roughly 2.6 games worth of action. He posted the highest fantasy point per attempt (passing + rushing) in the league. The Colts re-signed Michael Pittman and drafted another weapon, Adonai Mitchell, and should have a healthy Jonathan Taylor in tow. Only time will tell if Richardson is more of an injury risk than other quarterbacks, but studies have shown that mobile quarterbacks aren’t injured at a higher rate than “pocket” quarterbacks.

Calvin Ridley finished the 2023 season WR24 after being drafted WR14, so his first (and only) year with the Jaguars was a bit of a disappointment. Now he joins the Titans to play alongside DeAndre Hopkins with Will Levis at quarterback. The Titans have traditionally been pretty run-heavy, but new head coach Brian Callahan served as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals for the last five seasons. He didn't call the plays, but the Bengals were pretty pass-heavy in that span. (Cincinnati was second in pass rate over expectation in each of the last two seasons.) If Callahan brings those pass-heavy tendencies to the Titans, and Levis is up to the task, then Ridley and Hopkins could have productive fantasy seasons.

Tee Higgins wants a new contract but he and the Bengals were unable to come to terms so he will play under the franchise tag in 2024. He finished as the WR45 last year, but missed a few games and was the WR40 on a per-game basis. He was the WR12 in 2022, but that had a lot to do with Ja’Marr Chase missing five games that year. In 23 games with Chase over the last two years, Higgins has averaged 3.7 catches for 51 yards and 0.39 touchdowns on 6.2 targets per game. If we only look at splits with Chase and a healthy Joe Burrow, then Higgins’ averages are 4.1-54-0.39 on 6.6 targets per game. The resulting 9.9 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game equate to midrange WR4 numbers. Higgins has massive upside in the event of a Chase injury, but if Chase is healthy, Higgins is a fringe fantasy starter. The Bengals lost Tyler Boyd but added the talented Jermaine Burton, adding more pressure to Higgins’ targets.

In his seventh season, Chris Godwin turned 130 targets into 83 catches, 1,024 yards, and two touchdowns. The Bucs played him mostly outside (~38% slot) after he ran 70%+ of his routes out of the slot in both 2021 (WR12) and 2022 (WR20). They are reportedly moving him back to the slot this season, which is good news. Last year, Godwin averaged 1.71 fantasy points per slot target versus just 1.03 fantasy points per non-slot target, so moving back to the slot should boost his production at this point in his career. He may also benefit from positive touchdown regression as he only caught two touchdowns with an expectation of 5.3 touchdowns. Keep in mind that those top-20 fantasy finishes came with Tom Brady at quarterback, and the team’s passing pie as a whole is much smaller with Baker Mayfield under center. With Mayfield, Godwin looks like more of a WR3 than the fantasy WR2 he was with Brady.

The relationship between the Steelers and Diontae Johnson had apparently soured so the team shipped him off to Carolina. He's entering the final year of his contract so we'll see if the Panthers give him a new deal. If not, he’ll be extremely motivated to put up huge numbers. Regardless, he'll be a major upgrade to the team's receiver room and will soak up plenty of targets from Bryce Young, who despite inefficient numbers was able to support Adam Thielen as the fantasy WR11 through 11 weeks last year. Johnson is entering his age-28 season, so we shouldn't be worried about a drop-off just yet–his struggles last season were mostly environmental. He's one of the league's best route-runners and will immediately become Young's top target. Anyone who believes that Young is at least a mediocre NFL quarterback should be all over Johnson at his WR37 ADP.

In his rookie season, Rashee Rice finished the season as the fantasy WR22, though he didn’t begin to play more than half the snaps until Week 7. From that point on, he was the fantasy WR19 with the 16th-highest per game average. Under normal circumstances, he’d be a no-brainer top-20 receiver pick, but Rice has had a tumultuous offseason, as he was charged with two felonies relating to a hit-and-run. He was also under investigation for an assault at a Dallas nightclub. The assault case was dropped, but the (more serious) hit-and-run case is working its way through the judicial system. As is always the case, the uncertainty of a potential suspension is dragging down his ADP, which currently sits at WR37. Potentially signaling that they may be without Rice for a good chunk of the season, the Chiefs made two moves to shore up the receiver room, signing Hollywood Brown and drafting the speedy Xavier Worthy in the first round. The acquisitions may not be related to Rice’s situation, however, as the Chiefs had a need at receiver with or without Rice in the fold. If Rice does play a full season, his targets will be under pressure thanks to the arrival of Brown and Worthy.

Brooks is recovering from a "clean" ACL tear (per Ian Rapoport) and should be ready to play in July. He should quickly beat out the solid-but-not-spectacular Chuba Hubbard and 2023 free agent disappointment Miles Sanders to earn the RB1 job. His upside is capped by the Carolina offense which needs to take a big step forward if it's going to support a bona fide fantasy RB1. I expect his ADP will land in the fifth/sixth round since Brooks is a good bet to see 15+ touches per game as a rookie. The last six second-round running backs who started at least 11 games as rookies averaged 268 touches for 1,286 yards and 9.2 touchdowns.

Despite seeing the 15th-most touches (253 through Week 17), Najee Harris finished RB26, two spots behind his more efficient teammate, Jaylen Warren. Warren’s touches increased from 10.6 to 13.9 when comparing the first half of the season to the second half. That increased workload may or may not carry over now that there’s a new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) in town. Smith is known to use his players in frustrating ways from a fantasy perspective. Interestingly, Warren’s increased usage did not come at Harris’s expense. Harris saw his touches increase from 14.4 to 18.8 from the first half to the second half of the season. (Harris/Warren combined to average 25.0 touches from Week 1 to Week 8 compared to 32.7 touches from Week 9 to Week 18, so Pittsburgh was much more RB-oriented in the back half of the season.) The Steelers figure to be very run-heavy under Smith so there should be room for both Harris and Warren in 15+ touch roles.

The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, so they check in with the most vacated targets (395) this year. Justin Herbert is a quality quarterback and McConkey is not only a great athlete but he's also a great route-runner, according to Matt Harmon, who compared him to longtime Reception Perception favorite Tyler Lockett. This is a great fit and McConkey should see all the targets he can handle in his rookie season. He should be in the WR2/WR3 mix in fantasy drafts.

After an ACL tear derailed his second season, Williams played nearly a full slate of games in 2023, finishing as the fantasy RB31. He left Week 4 after only eight snaps, so when that game is removed, his 11.7 points per game average would have been the 23rd-highest last season. His advanced metrics weren’t particularly good, but that’s not surprising since it was his first season post-ACL. He was first in broken tackles per rush as a rookie, so the Broncos are surely hoping he can get back to that early-career rushing form. Per The Athletic, Williams will reportedly have to “earn the starting job in camp,” so the Denver backfield is one to monitor this summer.

Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon compared Odunze to Davante Adams, calling him "a complete player who has no weaknesses in his game." However, targets are going to be at a premium until either D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen move on, so he is unlikely to make the same immediate impact as Marvin Harrison Jr. will in Arizona. Odunze will be in the WR3/WR4 mix as the likely third option when Moore and Allen are healthy, though all three players are new to Caleb Williams. The Bears can afford to bring Odunze along slowly with Moore and Allen in the fold. His fantasy value would skyrocket if either player were to miss any time.

We know Christian Watson has talent. In the 14 games over the last two seasons when he’s been healthy enough to play 70%+ of the snaps, he has averaged 3.6 catches for 61 yards and 0.79 touchdowns on 6.3 targets per game. Throw in some carries, and he’s averaged 13.6 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game when getting that many snaps. That’s what Nico Collins averaged as last year’s WR13 on a per-game basis. Watson has missed time in each of his first two seasons with hamstring injuries, but an offseason visit to a specialist in Madison revealed that there was an imbalance in the strength of his hamstrings which was causing the injuries. He has worked to cut the asymmetry in half, and continues to work to get the two muscles even closer in strength. If this is able to keep his legs healthy, it could be a boon for fantasy managers who are drafting him as the WR41 off the board. The Packers’ receiving group as a whole is going to be very difficult to project as there is a lot of talent WR1-WR5. Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton are arguably the best WR4 and WR5 in the league. Still, when Watson is healthy, the Packers will play him 70%-90% without much hesitation because he can completely take the top off the defense. When we apply his reception, receiving yard and touchdown shares from those 14 games where he played 70%+ of the snaps to the Packers’ expected passing numbers this season, then Watson projects to 947 yards and 11.6 touchdowns, which would make him the fantasy WR8. There’s obviously upside given Watson’s WR4-type ADP, but there are multiple ways (injury, WR-committee) for Watson to miss that expectation as well. I think he’s worth the risk.

Devin Singletary finished RB30 last year, one spot below Austin Ekeler. He was the RB40 on a per-game basis, but didn't play starter's snaps until Week 9. From that point on, he was the fantasy RB9 and was the RB20 on a per-game basis, so he will be undervalued heading into 2024 if he’s slated to handle bell-cow duties for the Giants. He averaged 89 total yards (and 4.56 yards per carry) once he took over in Week 9, though his yards after contact per attempt (43rd of 51 running backs with 50+ carries in that span) and his PFF rushing grade (29th of 60 qualified backs) were nothing to write home about. The Giants drafted Tyrone Tracy in the fifth round, and he may carve out a role on third downs and in the return game.

Marquise Brown enters his age-27 season on the heels of a disappointing 51-574-4, 101-target season, a far cry from the 91-1008-6 that he posted in his final season with the Ravens in 2021. Brown is a sizable upgrade over the recently-released Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Despite a second consecutive Super Bowl win, the Chiefs' passing game had a down year, so there is certainly room for the passing pie to grow, making room for Brown, Rice's ascension, rookie Xavier Worthy, and another quality year from Travis Kelce.

Brian Thomas Jr. joins Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis to provide a potent receiving corps for Trevor Lawrence. Talent-wise, Thomas could be a top-two option for Jacksonville, but it will be a challenge to unseat Engram (8.4 targets per game) or Kirk (7.1) in terms of targets. However, Calvin Ridley vacated 8.0 targets per game, and Zay Jones (7.1) was also cut, so there are snaps and targets available for both Thomas and Davis. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception said that Thomas has "earned his standing as the first name mentioned" after the top-three receivers in the 2024 draft class, so he’s a breakout candidate in his first season.

At first glance, Worthy's targets may be initially blocked by Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown, but Kelce is no spring chicken, Rice is dealing with legal issues that may result in a multi-game suspension, and Brown is on a one-year deal. Not since Tyreek Hill have the Chiefs had a receiver with this kind of speed (4.21 40-yard dash), and HC Andy Reid will scheme ways to use it from the get-go.

Jameson Williams has had a slow start to his career, but that was to be expected since he tore his ACL in the National Championship Game during his final college season. He only played six games as a rookie, catching 1-of-9 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding one carry for 40 yards. (These ridiculous numbers underline both his big-play ability and his inconsistency.) In his second season, after serving a six-game gambling suspension, he caught 24-of-42 targets for 354 yards and two scores while adding three carries for 29 yards and a touchdown. HC Dan Campbell said in February that Williams will “push to be a full-time starter” this season, and during spring practices Williams has been a “man on a mission.” On the plus side, the former No. 12 overall pick has elite speed and with Josh Reynolds moving on, there are snaps and targets up for grabs in a great offense. On the flip side, he’ll at best be the third option in the passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor. He might be a “better in best ball” option. Regardless, given his talent and upside, he’s worth a pick in the double-digit rounds.

As a rookie, Jordan Addison finished as the fantasy WR23 thanks in large part to his 10 touchdown catches, though his yardage (911) was third among rookies behind Puka Nacua (1,486) and Rashee Rice (938). He was arrested in early July for suspicion of DUI, which could lead to a suspension. He pled guilty to misdemeanor (140 MPH) speeding charges last summer. In addition to a possible (2-4 game?) suspension, Addison is also dealing with a quarterback change, as some combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will try to replace Kirk Cousins’ 291 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Addison’s production took a nosedive after Cousins was done for the year. He averaged 4.5-60-0.88 with Cousins and just 3.8-48-0.28 with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. That’s a 36% drop in fantasy production.

Curtis Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone. In his last four seasons with 15+ games played, Samuel has crested 613 receiving yards in all four years, and has added an average of 139 yards per year as a runner. The Bills get a versatile weapon to utilize alongside Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Harmon agrees, “...everything about his profile shows that he will make a significant impact for a team that needs him.” Moreover, Samuel is being reunited with OC Joe Brady who squeezed a WR25 finish out of him in 2020 (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback). Samuel had 118 touches (41 carries) for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns that year. He will be one of my primary late-round targets this season.

Keon Coleman didn’t chart particularly well at Reception Perception, but the Bills used valuable draft capital to nab him with the first pick in the second round and he’s joining a team that desperately needs playmakers at receiver. It’s worth noting that as a sophomore at Michigan State, he outproduced Jayden Reed in Reed’s senior season.

Jared Goff finished as the fantasy QB8 last year and the key pieces are still in place. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs all return, and the up-and-coming Jameson Williams will likely replace the departed Josh Reynolds. Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator. I don’t love the idea of having Goff as my only quarterback since his home/away splits are so extreme. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game at home versus just 13.9 per game on the road. This is similar to what we saw with Drew Brees late in his career in New Orleans. As the QB12 off the board, Goff can be easily paired with another quarterback to form a potent committee with the intention of only starting Goff at home or in his very favorable road matchups.

In his third season, Joshua Palmer finished as the WR67, though he missed several games and posted the 47th-highest per-game average (8.9 half-PPR points per game). He set career-highs in yards per game (58.1), yards per catch (15.3), and yards per route run (1.71, 38th out of 102 eligible receivers). When Matt Harmon charted Palmer’s rookie season and found that he posted above average success rates on five of the 10 routes on Reception Perception route tree, even if his overall numbers weren’t great. Anyway, it’s two years later and Palmer is coming off of a season where he played at a 65-988-3.4 (WR34) pace. Of his 10 games, Mike Williams played in three, and Keenan Allen played in four. Palmer averaged 74 yards in the four games he played with Allen and without Williams, and one of those games was cut short due to injury. In the three games that he played without both Allen and Williams, Palmer posted 113, 47, and 44 yards, a 68-yard average. So without Williams, Palmer played at a 73-1209-2.4 pace. Those are low-end WR2 numbers. With Allen and Williams gone, Palmer has an opportunity to step into the WR1 role. His primary competition appears to be Ladd McConkey, but who knows, maybe Quentin Johnston or D.J. Chark will have something to say about it. My money is on McConkey/Palmer as the WR1/WR2, but not necessarily in that order. Palmer could easily garner more targets than a rookie who wasn’t all that productive in college. The Chargers will very likely be much more run-heavy under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, so the passing pie will be smaller for Justin Herbert and his receivers. Still, if Palmer is a regular contributor seeing 6-8 targets per game, he could be a good fantasy asset, especially since he’s being drafted as a low-end WR5.

After a very encouraging QB8 finish in his second season, Lawrence’s numbers regressed a bit in 2023, resulting in a QB14 fantasy finish (and the 19th-highest per game average). As the 17th quarterback off the board, Lawrence is an intriguing late-round option since he has already proven that he has top-10 upside. He lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back, and they are joined by talented rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent Gabe Davis. He also adds about 21 yards rushing per game, giving him a solid fantasy floor. Jaguars receivers had the seventh-most drops, so there was still some meat on the bone for Lawrence and Co.

In his second season, Shaheed increased his catches (28 to 46), his receiving yards (488 to 719), and touchdowns (2 to 5), while adding 723 yards as a returner. He posted a stellar 2.59 yards per route run as a rookie, and followed that up with a solid (if unspectacular) 1.67 yards per route run last season (40th out of 102 eligible receivers). He played roughly 58% of the snaps last season, but that number jumped to 63% in his last six non-injury games. With Michael Thomas out of the way, Shaheed could be a full-time player in 2024, and he should a big part of a more productive and inventive offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Dalton Schultz proved to be a good value at the always dicey tight end position in 2023. He was drafted as the TE15 but turned in TE10 numbers despite missing a couple of games. C.J. Stroud was obviously much better than expected, which helped, but Schultz did not appear to be a top-two (or even top-three?) option when Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown were all healthy. Despite finishing as a top-10 tight end, he saw four or fewer targets in six of his 15 games played. The Texans saw enough to value Schultz at $36 million over three years. He’s a baseline option at the position heading into 2024.

Justin Herbert finished QB16 last season, but had the 13th-highest per-game average. He was the QB12 in 2022 with the 17th-highest per-game average. So after a QB9 and a QB2 finish in his first two seasons, he has settled into high-end QB2-type territory (#13-#18) in the last two seasons. He has lost his top four options–Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett–so his key returners are Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. The Chargers did draft Ladd McConkey and they signed Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly, but obviously the team lost a lot of receiving talent. New HC Jim Harbaugh has also signaled that his offense is going to be run-heavy, so it’s safe to say that things aren’t exactly lining up for Herbert to have a big fantasy season.

Corum rushed for 2,708 yards in his final two seasons at Michigan and posted pretty good numbers at the Combine. However, Kyren Williams owned the third-highest rushing grade last season, so the rookie may have a tough time getting touches as long as Williams remains healthy. He'll be a premier attrition RB2 in 2024 fantasy drafts.

The fourth-year tight end had a great season, racking up 719 yards and six touchdowns on 73 catches, but there is reason for concern heading into 2024. The Bears added target-hog Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze in the first round, and that means Kmet is likely to be the fourth option (at best) instead of the second option behind D.J. Moore. The Bears also signed Gerald Everett, who could eat into Kmet’s targets as well.

Pat Freiermuth missed five games, but was the TE28 on a per-game basis. He was the TE7 the year before with the 10th-highest per-game average. His targets dropped from 6.4 per game to 4.1 last year. The Steelers are going to be run-heavy under new OC Arthur Smith, so it’s hard to see a bull case for Freiermuth, other than perhaps a quarterback upgrade.

Trevor Lawrence did own the eighth-highest adjusted completion percentage on deep balls (per PFF) last season, so in theory this will be a good match for Gabe Davis's deep-ball ability. Davis has a propensity to find the end zone, but his inconsistency has made him a frustrating fantasy start. (I said out loud in the middle of last season that I would only draft Davis in best ball formats moving forward.) He’ll be the third option behind Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

The former first-round pick has totaled a serviceable 121 catches for 1,730 yards and eight touchdowns in 31 games played over the last two seasons, finishing WR54 last season and a career-high WR26 the year before. He'll get a fresh start in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson (and possibly Joe Flacco) at quarterback, but will certainly be behind Amari Cooper in the team's pecking order at receiver. The Browns also have a stud tight end, David Njoku, so Jeudy should be third in expected targets. Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman will also be in the mix.

Matthew Stafford finished 2023 as the QB15 after an elbow injury knocked him out for the back half of 2022. He was the fantasy QB23 prior to his injury. With the emergence of Puka Nacua, the offense is not so Cooper Kupp-centric. Stafford is 36 years old, offers almost nothing as a runner, and is more of an injury risk now, but he should provide solid QB2-type numbers when available.

Shockingly, Baker Mayfield finished as the QB9 in his first season with the Bucs, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns in his best season in the NFL. He showed a particularly nice rapport with Mike Evans, who racked up 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns in his best season since 2018. While Evans finished WR4, Chris Godwin (82-1024-2) finished a disappointing WR33. With both Mayfield and Evans back in the fold, the Bucs' passing game appears to be in good hands heading into the 2024 season, though the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales (to Carolina) is worrisome.

It’s safe to say that the Deshaun Watson-to-Cleveland move hasn’t gone as well as either party would like. In 11 starts for the Browns (with 90%+ of the snaps), he has averaged 201 yards (6.58 yards per attempt), 1.27 touchdowns and 0.73 interceptions, with 29 yards and 0.18 touchdowns as a runner. That works out to about 15.3 fantasy points per game, which is midrange QB2 production thanks to those rushing numbers. The Browns added Jerry Jeudy to the mix, so Watson has a solid set of receivers to throw to.

Ja’Lynn Polk has second-round draft capital and joins arguably the worst receiver room in the league, so a big role for the rookie is possible. He charted very well at Reception Perception and Matt Harmon says there is “so much to like” about Polk’s game. He’s definitely a player I’m monitoring this summer.

From Week 8 to Week 15–Will Levis’ time as the Titans’ starter–Chigoziem Okonwko was the fantasy TE20, but had the 29th-highest per game average. He had the 18th-highest yards per route run (1.43), which was better than Dalton Kincaid and Dallas Goedert in that span. Okonkwo is hyper-athletic for a tight end, but he only played about 65% of the snaps and his targets are under pressure after the Titans’ added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd this offseason.

Last season, Antonio Gibson rushed for a career-low 265 yards while gaining a career-high 389 yards as a receiver. He will probably serve as the primary backup to Rhamondre Stevenson. Still in his prime, his 1,331-yard season (in 2021) seems like a long time ago.

Of all the tight ends, Taysom Hill’s fantasy value depends most on the scoring format in question. In standard scoring, he was the TE7 last year. In half-PPR and full-PPR, he was the TE10 and TE15, respectively. With a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak) in town, Hill’s role is very much up in the air, but HC Dennis Allen said that it would be “very similar to what we’ve seen in the past.” Hill said that he had a “positive” conversation with Kubiak about his new role, so he seems like he’ll be content with his usage. Of course, Hill is not even TE-eligible in some leagues, but that’s where we rank/project him since that’s the only real position that he’s startable.

Some may want to write off Bryce Young after a poor rookie season, but HC Dave Canales might be a quarterback-whisperer. He was instrumental in the career resurgences of both Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa. Young’s rookie season probably couldn’t have gone much worse. He threw for a paltry 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and posted an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt. But in fairness, his top weapons were 33-year-old Adam Thielen (137 targets), rookie Jonathan Mingo (85), and D.J. Chark (27). The Panthers didn’t exactly set the rookie up for success, but with the addition of Canales and the incredible route-running of Diontae Johnson, things are looking up.

With Tee Higgins in the fold, Jermaine Burton will be the No. 3 option for Joe Burrow. He has off-field/locker-room concerns, but talent-wise, Matt Harmon is a big fan: "Jermaine Burton has the type of Reception Perception profile I would bet on five times over." Again, there are character questions, but the upside is obvious. With Tyler Boyd out of the way, Burton should see snaps in three-receiver sets at a minimum.

Diontae Johnson has moved on, so there are snaps and targets available in the Steelers' WR room. Roman Wilson didn't fare particularly well in Harmon's charting, finishing last among the charted rookies in overall Success Rate. Calvin Austin III is looking for a bigger role, and the Steelers have added Marquez Callaway, Quez Watkins and Van Jefferson this offseason. The WR2 job is up for grabs--can Wilson win it?

In a surprise move, A.J. Dillon returns to Green Bay. Josh Jacobs is capable of handling a bigger role than Aaron Jones was, so Dillon's typical role–12.3 touches in 41 games with Jones in the lineup over the last three seasons–may shrink to 6-10 touches per game (or less if Dillon can’t beat out MarShawn Lloyd). Dillon averaged about 70 total yards per game in the six games that Jones missed, so he'll have some attrition appeal as an RB3/RB4 if he remains the primary backup. Early indications are that Lloyd will have a sizable role, so DIllon’s fantasy value may be at an all-time low.