2024 3M Open Statistical Breakdown

Here is a list of all the players inside the top-30 of the leaderboard who are overachieving by more than 15 spots when adding in their projected Short Game to their actual Ball-Striking.

I wouldn't necessarily fade all these options, but they do possess an intriguing list of names to consider taking on in matchups.

On the flip side of the equation, here are the names that are within three spots (or should be even better) on the leaderboard. These are the names most likely to keep up their pace or improve from within the top-30.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 3M Open Statistical Breakdown

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee

Twenty-eight of the top-31 players on the leaderboard for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee made the cut, with only Chandler Phillips, S.H. Kim, and Tom Hoge missing the weekend.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Doug Ghim, Taylor Pendrith and Gary Woodland were the only three players to rank in the top 20 for both Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Strokes Gained Approach.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green

For all the talk we had this week about Strokes Gained Around the Green having less of an impact than a typical course for high-end finishers, we still have gotten top-20 returns on the leaderboard and for the category from Emiliano Grillo, Matthew NeSmith, Sahith Theegala, Maverick McNealy, Jacob Bridgeman and Adam Svensson.

We will see if this continues, but my initial inclination is that overachieving in that area will eventually catch up to the top names on this board.

Strokes Gained: Putting

Austin Eckroat turned into one of the chalk bombs of the week. I didn't play him a ton for DFS because of the ownership, but I did fall victim in all of the high-end markets (outrights, T20s). Not even a stellar putting performance could save a poor ball-striking display.

Players Gaining In All Four Strokes Gained Metrics

Taylor Pendrith has been brilliant this week.

Other Players Gaining In Three Strokes Gained Metrics (Removing Putting)

Tom Hoge and Blaine Hale projected within the top 55 of the leaderboard en route to what became a missed cut. I would be interested in buying back on Hoge during his next start. 

Expected Score When Given Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green

Biggest Underachievers On The Leaderboard – Who Made Cut
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)

Biggest Overachievers On The Leaderboard –
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)

We will see if Emiliano Grillo can continue dominating this course in a unique way. My model has been questioning it all week.

Players Who Should Have Made The Cut But Missed