Premier Lacrosse League Week 8 Saturday Picks: PLL Best Bets for California Redwoods vs Carolina Chaos

The hometown California Redwoods host the Carolina Chaos in their second meeting of the season. The Redwoods are desperate for a win and with two games this weekend, their playoff hopes could be on life support if they drop both games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite bets for the later Premier Lacrosse League game on Saturday between the Redwoods and Chaos.

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California Redwoods vs. Carolina Chaos

Odds via DraftKings

Redwoods vs. Chaos Analysis and Picks

Carolina defeated California 12-11 earlier in the season, but the total this time around is the lowest of the season at 21.5. Additionally, the Redwoods are big underdogs in this rematch, but these two teams are closer than these odds indicate.

While I still expect Carolina to come away with the victory over California, I think this game will be close throughout and suggest betting California to get off to a strong start in the first half. The Redwoods will have the advantage at the faceoff and Chris Gray’s reinsertion back into the lineup should give California a spark they were lacking last week.

At +135, there’s value in betting California to lead at halftime. When these teams last met, they were all knotted up at 5-5 at halftime and the Woods have actually been much better in the first half of most of their games. With California’s playoff hopes now on life support, the situation is ripe to bet the Redwoods to have a strong first half at favorable odds.

I’m also betting Carolina to have more shots on goal in this matchup at +200 on BetMGM. While Carolina hasn’t been a high-volume shooting team to start, they’ve managed to steadily increase their shooting output while maintaining the league’s second-best shots on goal percentage of 66.7%. Meanwhile, California has the worst shots on goal percentage of 56.5%.

California is averaging 23.4 shots on goal per game compared to Carolina’s 22.7 and the Redwoods had just one more shot on goal when these teams last faced. The margin is much slimmer than the odds indicate, so bet Carolina to finish with the most shots on goal.

Player Props to Target

While I like the Redwoods to win the first half, I’m betting two Chaos player props. Carolina attackman Josh Byrne’s points prop is 3.5 across sportsbooks. Byrne has only surpassed this in 5 of his last 12 games in which he played the full game, but his odds of +155 is actually a favorable price considering this sample size dating back to 2023. If you go back to 2022, Byrne has had four or more points in 10 of 22 games. Byrne has had four points in his two most recent games against the Redwoods and I expect California to struggle to defend the Canadian lefty again on Saturday.

While it took six games for Shane Knobloch to finally record two points, the Chaos midfielder has been getting plenty of opportunities and appears to be back to full health after playing with a nagging leg injury earlier in the season. The rookie has averaged 4.2 shots per game and has done a better job at generating quality chances in recent weeks.

Knobloch’s current points prop is 1.5 and I think he’ll be able to easily surpass this against California’s relatively weak short-stick defensive midfield unit. While I expect Knobloch to primarily operate as a shooter, California’s quick-to-slide defense could also open up some chances for the speedy midfielder to draw a double team and assist his teammates on scoring plays as well. This is a great matchup and +126 is a fair price to bet Knobloch to record two points.

Finally, I’m betting Redwoods attackman Wes Berg to go over 1.5 goals. Berg has gone over this mark in 12 of his last 17 games, including his last three against Chaos. In those three games, Berg has a whopping 12 goals. Few players have success against Carolina goalie Blaze Riorden, but Berg is one of them. Even at -170, the odds are too long for Berg to go over 1.5 goals and I recommend betting him to score at least two against Carolina on Saturday.

DraftKings is also offering a homecoming weekend special to bet Berg to record 2+ goals in each of California's Week 8 games. At +160, this is also a good price to bet a half unit on Berg to record two goals in each of Redwoods' games this weekend.

Picks: California Redwoods 1st Half ML, Carolina Chaos Most Shots on Goal, Josh Byrne Over 3.5 Points, Shane Knobloch Over 1.5 Points, Wes Berg Over 1.5 Goals, Berg 2+ Goals in Each Week 8 Game (0.5 unit)