Angels vs Athletics Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (July 27)
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Lawrence Butler.
Angels vs. Athletics Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-125 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +160 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -192 |
The Athletics' tremendous offensive play has continued into this AL West series against the Angels — Oakland has generated 11 runs in two games against Los Angeles and is averaging 6.25 runs per game in July. Mitch Spence (4.67 ERA in 88 2/3 IP) will get the start on Saturday and is looking to record his second straight win over the Angels.
Spence is priced as an underdog — the Angels enter Saturday as -125 moneyline favorites — this time around as he draws a tough matchup against All-Star left-hander Tyler Anderson (2.91 ERA in 123 2/3 IP), who has remained in strong form with a 2.29 ERA in three July starts.
See how I think this game will play out in my Angels vs Athletics betting preview below.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics probably aren't the first team that comes to mind when thinking about MLB's offensive powerhouses, but that is exactly what they have been of late. Over the last month, their 147 wRC+ (100 is league average) ranks first by a wide margin.
Brent Rooker hit his 10th home run of July on Friday, which helped the Athletics secure their first winning month in two years.
The word surrounding the Athletics is that they are reportedly not overly keen on the prospect of trading Rooker ahead of the trade deadline. That notion seems kind of illogical given this may be the peak of Rooker's trade value — maybe it is just a negotiating tactic, but the 29-year-old staying with Oakland would be good news for anyone who bet the A's to push past their historically low preseason win total.
Over the last month, Oakland owns a wRC+ of 188 against left-handed pitching, which again ranks first (by a fairly gigantic margin). It has struck out just 17.7% of the time in that span, with a league-leading 0.73 BB/K and a third-ranked hard-hit rate of 37.8%.
Mitch Spence looks to be a slightly better pitcher than his 4.67 ERA suggests. He holds an xERA of 3.86 and an xFIP of 4.03. Pitch metrics are also fairly high on Spence relative to his below-average ERA, as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Location+ rating of 101.
Los Angeles Angels
While Spence is a good candidate to improve upon his current ERA, the opposite looks to be true for Tyler Anderson (2.93 ERA). Anderson holds an xERA of 4.32 with an xFIP of 4.89. He has overachieved his expected results by stranding 83.1% of baserunners and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9; 8.8 HR/FB%).
If those marks trend toward Anderson's career averages, he will start to look like a far more average starter moving forward.
Anderson's Stuff+ and Location+ marks are better compared to last season, but still below average at 95 and 99, respectively.
The Angels' lineup ranks 26th with a wRC+ of 89 against right-handed pitching this season, and they have not been significantly better of late with a wRC+ of 93 over the last 30 days. They hold a 27th-ranked hard-hit rate of 30.9% against righties over the last month.
Angels vs. Athletics
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's pretty difficult to look past the Athletics' scorching hot lineup in this matchup as an underdog, especially when it's debatable how much of an edge Anderson even provides over Spence. Oakland has been the best team in the league against lefties for over a month now and it presents a sneaky tough matchup for Anderson.
The A's' elite recent offensive marks have been aided by a couple gigantic outings, and it's obvious to say that they aren't the best team in the league versus lefties. Still, it's also easy to make the case that the Athletics' offensive upside is significantly greater than the Angels' right now, and for that reason they look like a good bet as an underdog.
Back Oakland at anything better than -105 to continue torturing the Angels' pitching staff on Saturday night.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline +105 (bet365; Play to -105)
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