Athletics vs Phillies Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (July 12)

Friday, July 12

6:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Athletics Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+225	9 -105 / -115	+1.5 +112

Phillies Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-275	9 -105 / -115	-1.5 -134

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Oakland Athletics head to Citizens Bank Park on Friday evening to open up a 3-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies had a terrific first half of the season and will get even healthier when they return from the All-Star Break.

It'll be Hogan Harris for the A's and Ranger Suarez on the mound for the Phillies. The market decisively has a determined favorite for the matchup, with Philadelphia listed as a -275 moneyline favorite, while the over/under is set at 9.

So, let's break down the latest MLB odds and get to my Athletics vs. Phillies pick and prediction for Friday, July 12.

Oakland Athletics

Hogan Harris was roughed up on Sunday afternoon against the Orioles, and he draws an awful matchup once again. Harris enters the matchup with a 3.22 ERA, but he's been extremely fortunate thus far.

Harris' xERA is 5.56 ERA, which is amongst the worst of all MLB starters. He ranks below the 40th percentile in the following categories:
-xBA
-Chase%
-Whiff%
-Barrel Rate
-GB%

The Phillies are a slightly better offensive team against left-handed pitching, and they have compiled 40 HRs against southpaws. It is a nightmare matchup for Harris, who is a ticking time bomb.

Offensively, the A's have never faced Suarez before. There will be a slight adjustment period as they try to solve him, which does not bode well for them at all.

Philadelphia Phillies

If you think the Phillies are a dangerous team now, just wait until they get JT Realmuto back.

Tonight, it is a dream matchup for the fightin' Phils. Harris might seem like he is having a decent season, but the regression monster is practically lying on his shoulder ready to pounce.

Ranger Suarez has had an incredible season for the Phils. He sports a 2.58 ERA and is well-deserving of being in the CY Young conversation.

Suarez is not a 2.58 ERA pitcher, but his metrics are terrific. He ranks amongst the elite MLB pitchers (above the 80th percentile) in the following categories:

-xBA
-xERA
-Barrel Rate
-GB%
-AVG Exit Velo

I have no doubt he can compile a strong outing tonight. The Phils' are 4-20 lifetime against Harris, but there is no reason to believe they can not get to him early.

They are a top-3 team in the MLB in runs and hits per game, so against the regression candidate Harris, it is bound to get ugly.

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Athletics vs. Phillies

Betting Pick & Prediction

I think we are bound for a lopsided matchup at The Bank on Friday night. Oddsmakers have already made the Phillies a heavy favorite, but I think there is insane value on the Phillies first five innings run line.

It is very rare to see a team laying 1.5 runs in the first five innings, but in this particular case, it is the best betting approach. The A's bullpen is a top-10 unit in baseball, so in case Oakland scores some runs late to make the game close, I would rather focus my attention on the first half of the matchup.

Harris vs. Suarez is as lopsided as it gets on the mound, and it should ultimately lead to a blowout in Philadelphia. Take the reduced juice on the Phillies -1.5 F5 line this Friday.

Pick: First Five Innings: Phillies -1.5 (-108)