Braves vs Giants Prediction | Thursday Odds & Expert Pick
Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb
Braves vs Giants Prediction | Thursday Odds & Expert Pick
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8 -108o / -112u | -134 |
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -108o / -112u | +114 |
On the Fourth of July, the Atlanta Braves look to build off Tuesday night's win to clinch a series victory against the San Francisco Giants.
It won't be easy, as they go up against Giants ace Logan Webb. Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves, who are -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-108o /-112u), according to DraftKings odds.
Let's take a deeper look at this Independence Day clash in my MLB betting preview and make a Braves vs Giants prediction for Thursday, July 4.
The Giants have to feel good heading into tonight's ballgame, solely because of Webb. Webb has excellent career numbers against the Braves in the past, where they are striking out over 25% of the time and have a .216 BA in 97 career plate appearances.
Webb's results are a bit funky, and his 3.12 ERA should be closer to 4.15 according to Xero. He has excellent movement on his fastball and is generating a high chase rate on his pitches.
The issue is, that hitters are making strong contact most of the time, which will end up costing him down the road. But, the 58% GB rate and low walk rate are always going to keep his team in the game in most starts.
The offense draws a nice matchup against Morton, who is no stranger to loud contact. They are hitting .236 against him for a lifetime, but Morton is far more prone now than he was in the past.
Morton is still generating strikeouts, but the contact and walk rate is what gets him into trouble. The Giants offense should be able to score a couple of runs in the early going to establish some momentum.
The Braves need a strong performance from their offense to win tonight's matchup, and it all starts with exploiting Webb. The offense is still trying to establish consistency every week and it dearly misses some of their everyday bats, including Ronald Acuna Jr.
The numbers against Webb are not very good, but it will be interesting to see if they work the count against him early to generate some base on balls. Opposing hitters are hitting the ball hard against Webb, so it's possible the Braves can exploit this and hang a crooked number on the scoreboard.
My biggest concern for the Braves is not necessarily their offense in a tough matchup, but the performance of Morton. Morton's numbers rank below the 50th percentile in the following categories:
- xERA
- Fastball Velocity
- Chase%
- Walk Rate
- Barrel Rate
There's a reason the market makes the Braves a slight favorite at home, and it's mostly due to the uncertainty of Morton's performance. I cannot vouch for an investment for the Braves here.
Braves vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Giants have the edge on the mound today, and I think they'll be thrilled to see a different starting pitcher on the mound not named Chris Sale. It is a strong spot to back the Giants in the first five innings, especially at their current price.
You can approach this in different ways, but in terms of saving money on the juice I would suggest grabbing their moneyline at even money. Webb's strong numbers against the Braves give me confidence he can hold them at bay in the early going.
His metrics are a bit alarming, but I'll ride with the low walk rate and his ability to keep the ball on the ground nearly 60% of the time any day of the week. Expect a nice bounce back from the Giants after a rough night on Wednesday.
Pick: Giants Moneyline +100 via DraftKings
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