Mets vs Nationals Thursday Odds & Moneyline Prediction

Thursday, July 11

1:10 p.m. ET

MLB Network

Mets Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
-140	8.5 -110o / -110u	-1.5 +143

Nationals Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
+118	8.5 -110o / -110u	+1.5 -170

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

David Peterson is one of the weakest pitcher on the New York Mets, but still seems receiving good fortune. The veteran southpaw has kept the ball on the ground, which always helps, but he still has a plethora of key issues.

His opponent will be MacKenzie Gore of the Washington Nationals. Gore is a bit more of a stable force in the Nationals’ rotation. The lefty has limited hard contact and gets a lot of swings and misses.

Now, the Nationals don't have the lineup depth of the Mets, but they do have a few hitters who can keep them afloat against a weaker-than-average pitcher, like Peterson. As a result, the Nationals have value, so let's get to my Nationals vs. Mets pick.

New York Mets

Gore owns a 3.83 ERA and a 3.90 xERA. He ranks in the 12th percentile in ground-ball rate, but maintains an average exit velocity of 87.2 mph with an above average hard-hit rate. His whiff and strikeout rates are fantastic as he's striking out 27% of hitters and has a walk rate a touch above 8%.

The Nationals’ lineup isn"t potent, but can get the job done against Peterson. In the past month against lefties, they have a 76 wRC+, but only a strikeout rate of 16.2%. Peterson doesn't strike out many hitters, so that's a bonus for the Nationals. In addition, the Nationals have four batters with a xwOBA over .310 in the past month.

The Washington bullpen has four arms below a 4.00 xFIP and a combined sub-4.00 xFIP. That should give them a boost in this game, but if Gore is able to go deep, he will hand the ball to more reliable relief options, like Kyle Finnegan.

Washington Nationals

Peterson is terrible. He ranks in the 91st percentile in ground-ball rate, but every other metric is lagging. He has a sub-4.00 ERA and an xERA over 5.00. His average exit velocity is almost 91 mph and his hard-hit rate ranks in the 17th percentile. Sure, he may limit fly balls, but he'll have constantly have to deal with runners on base.

The Mets have hammered lefties in the past month. They have a 136 wRC+, but strike out over 25% of the time. That should play into Gore’s hands. The Nats get to face the far weaker starter, which evens the playing field dramatically.

In relief, the Mets have been about league average in the past month, but have been plagued with injuries. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP and have a 3.80 collective xFIP. Yes, they have some good options to go to when Peterson exits, but he may be out of this game early.

Mets vs. Nationals

Betting Pick & Prediction

Bet the Nationals to pull off a road upset and play them to -110. Gore is a far better pitcher and since New York may dig into its relief options more quickly, the Nats could hold an edge in the late innings. In addition, the Nats call up of James Wood helps in the power department and adds crucial lineup depth.

Pick: Nationals Moneyline | Play to -110

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