MLB Best Bets & Sunday Picks & Predictions (8/11)
Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Nimmo.
With 13 MLB games scheduled for Sunday, August 11, you better believe we've come through with some MLB best bets.
The Action Network staff has three MLB Best Bets for Sunday, including picks and predictions for Mets vs Mariners on Sunday Night Baseball.
MLB Best Bets & Sunday Picks & Predictions (8/11)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Sunday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 2:10 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alex Kolodziej's Guardians vs Twins Best Bet: Fade the Public
Two PRO Systems were flagged on the Twins vs. Guardians game – both on the matchup under the total.
There may be some historical disrespect on the pitching tilt, particularly the strikeout numbers for both Tanner Bibee and David Festa.
Also, the early money (80%) is on the over. One of our other PRO Systems off the branch of our contrarian series shows that by the current betting data in our trackers, fading the public would be a wise choice.
Unlock PRO Systems for Sunday and check out the 61% MLB trend active for Mets vs. Mariners.
Pick: Under 8 (-105 | Play to -110)
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Greg Liodice's Tigers vs Giants Best Bet: Fade Montero Big
By Greg Liodice
After taking the first two games against the Detroit Tigers, the San Francisco look to complete the sweep at home.
Hayden Birdsong takes the mound for the Giants while the Tigers will send out Keider Montero, who’s been pretty underwhelming this season. It’s the right-hander’s rookie season, and there have been a lot of growing pains. To go with his 5.62 ERA, he holds a 5.18 xERA, while ranking in the 31st and 33rd percentile for Whiff% and K% respectively.
It’s also Birdsong’s rookie year and has managed to perform better. The Giants’ #4 prospect has gone 3-1 in seven starts, with 4.73 ERA and 4.29 xERA. The only reason why his ERA is near 5 is because of his poor outing against Washington on Tuesday, where he allowed seven earned runs in two innings.
Birdsong is capable though, as in the two starts prior, he notched a combined 20 strikeouts. It’s a prime time for him to get back into the groove because Detroit’s lineup is downright ugly. The Tigers lack any legitimate hitting threat, as their best hitter Riley Greene is still nursing an injury.
Lines call for the Giants to be the overwhelming favorite, so I’m leaning toward the spread here. San Francisco, while not being a deadly team, still has some hitters that can make a poor pitcher pay.
FanDuel lists the Giants -1.5 at +122, and I like those odds. Detroit has managed to stay alive in these past two games (including throwing a no-hitter through 6 and then falling apart), but I can't trust Montero. I’m backing San Fran to bring out the brooms.
Pick: Giants -1.5 (+122)
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Andrew O'Connor-Watts' Tigers vs Giants Best Bet: Bet This Under
The Giants are a below-average offense and they’re in their worst split against the right-hander, Keider Montero, who has been good enough this season. Montero sports a lackluster 5.18 xERA according to FanGraphs, but his 4.12 xFIP tells me there’s still some value on the under against the San Francisco offense.
On the other side, Hayden Birdsong has mostly lived up to the hype. Despite a rough go in his last appearance—where he was touched up for seven earned runs in just two innings—Birdsong has shown some promising flashes. In the two outings prior, he pitched to a combined two earned runs with five walks and 20 strikeouts. He’s not the picture of consistency but I like him against this Tigers offense that has just a 91.14 wRC+ on the season against righties.
I like this down to 7.5 at any juice and would bet to seven at reduced exposure.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
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Tony Sartori's Mets vs Mariners Best Bet: Mets an Unwarranted 'Dog?
By Tony Sartori
I am extremely shocked to see the Mets at +110 in this spot. Let's start with the hitting, which is a clear advantage for New York.
This season, it outranks Seattle in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. The gaps between those stats are extremely wide as well.
That leaves the starting pitching matchup, which one could argue is another advantage for the Mets. Luis Severino outranks Luis Castillo in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That just leaves the bullpen, which is arguably yet another edge for New York as its relief staff outranks the Mariners' in xFIP. The only advantage I personally give Seattle in this matchup is home-field, but I don't think that is enough to justify giving the Mets +110 in this spot.
Pick: Mets ML (+110)
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