MLB Best Bets: Sunday Picks & Predictions (July 7)

All 30 teams are in action today, July 7, and our Action Network staff is coming in with two of their MLB Best Bets. It includes two moneyline bets in games featuring the Cardinals vs. Nationals and Tigers vs. Reds.

Check out our two Sunday MLB Best Bets for July 7 below.

MLB Best Bets (July 7)

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	1:35 p.m.	Nationals moneyline (+110)
	1:40 p.m.	Tigers moneyline (-140 | Play to -150)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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Sunday, July 7

1:35 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Nationals moneyline (+110)

By Tony Sartori

The Nationals hand the ball to left-handed rookie DJ Herz, while the Cardinals return with veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson. There are multiple reasons to like Washington at +110 in this spot.

Firstly, Herz should be more trustworthy moving forward than Gibson. The rookie outranks Gibson in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, Gibson is 1-3 through four career meetings against the Nats with a fade-worthy 8.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.

Meanwhile, both bullpens possess an equal xFIP, so I'm not worried about any real gap there. That just leaves us with the hitting.

Washington outranks St. Louis in runs scored per game. Add in home-field advantage, and there are more than enough variables to justify taking a shot on the underdogs in this matchup.

Pick: Nationals moneyline (+110)

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Sunday, July 7

1:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Tigers moneyline (-140 | Play to -150)

By William Boor

Happy Tarik Skubal day!

The Tigers have won two in a row and I'm betting they'll extend that streak to three behind one of the best left-handed starters in baseball. The 27-year-old gave up three runs over six innings in his most-recent start, but threw seven scoreless frames in the prior outing. In fact, Skubal has yet to allow more than four runs in a game and has held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts.

Still need to be convinced that he's elite? Well, Skubal has limited the damage to one or fewer runs in nine starts. Yes, in 53% of his starts, he's given up just one or fewer runs. As a result, he's pitched to a 2.45 ERA (2.90 xERA) with 119 strikeouts over 103 innings. He ranks among the league's elite in xBA (83rd percentile), average exit velocity (84th percentile), whiff percentage (90th percentile), walk rate (91st percentile) and hard-hit percentage (87th percentile).

Skubal has fared well against pretty much everyone and a Reds offense that's averaging 4.30 runs per game (15th in MLB) doesn't scare me all that much.

Meanwhile, the Tigers — I know they're averaging just 4.10 runs per game — will get to face Graham Ashcraft, who has pitched to a 5.45 ERA and a 5.02 xERA. The right-hander has given up 13 runs over 14 innings across his past three starts and ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in the following: xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit percentage.

This pitching matchup isn't even close, so back Skubal and the Tigers.

Pick: Tigers moneyline (-140 | Play to -150)